2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Coastal Mortgage Value Collapse

As seas rise, so does the risk that buyers will become leery of taking on mortgages along our coasts. 
By: | April 7, 2017 • 7 min read

Rising seas encroach on our cities and towns at rates exponentially greater than before.

Advertisement




So-called King Tides, urged on by climate change and brought about by the close alignment of the sun, the moon and the earth are already producing flooding in Miami 10 days a year.

Debate the cause if you want to expend more hot air denying science. But it’s a fact that resale values of coastal homes in Miami, Atlantic City and Norfolk, Va. are already starting to erode.

These bellwether locations signify a growing and alarming threat; that continually rising seas will damage coastal residential and commercial property values to the point that property owners will flee those markets in droves, thus precipitating a mortgage value collapse that could equal or exceed the mortgage crisis that rocked the global economy in 2008.

“Insurance deals with extreme weather and billions of dollars of losses, but what we are talking about is uninsured loss of fair market value that is trillions of dollars in losses and I am not talking about in 2100, I’m talking about the next mortgage cycle,” said Albert Slap, president of Coastal Risk Consulting, a Florida firm that provides lot by lot modeling of flood risk.

Models created by Coastal Risk Consulting show flooding rates of Miami properties are going to rise substantially between now and 2050, within that 30–year mortgage cycle he refers to.

Albert Slap, president, Coastal Risk Consulting

“The results of our modeling and that of NOAA and many others shows that the increase in flooding on people’s properties, due to astronomy and physics, not weather, is alarming and significant and in all likelihood is not backstopped by insurance,” Slap said.

Adding to the threat is that real estate agents and homeowners aren’t incentivized or required to reveal how frequently properties flood, or how exposed they are to flooding.

“Forty percent of Americans live on the coast, which means you have trillions of dollars at risk for climate change that hasn’t been modeled for default increases,” Slap said.

The Pew Charitable Trusts, as part of its testimony to Congress as the National Flood Insurance Program undergoes review, is asking that all homeowners be required to report on that risk.

Many coastal homes are backstopped by the NFIP, which is still billions in debt from its losses in the Katrina-Wilma-Rita hurricane cycle of 2005.

Private sector insurers are eyeing ways to write more flood business. But if the NFIP suffers further losses, and private sector insurers retreat, what then?

“If you look at it systematically, if a broad number of insurance companies decide that they need to triple homeowners insurance rates, or they need to pull out of a local market, that would create a lot of problems in terms of the value of the properties that are in that locale,” said Cynthia McHale, president of insurance for Ceres, a nonprofit that advocates for sustainable business practices.

In November, Sean Becketti, the chief economist for the economic and housing research group at Freddie Mac, the federally backed housing lender, co-authored a paper that documented this very risk.

The paper referenced the fact that daily high-water levels in Miami are increasing at a rate of an inch per year, much faster than the rate of global sea-level rise. Other cities along the Eastern seaboard are experiencing a 10-fold increase in the frequency of flooding, according to Freddie Mac.

“A large share of homeowners’ wealth is locked up in the equity in their homes,” Becketti wrote.

“If those homes become uninsurable and unmarketable, the values of the homes will plummet, perhaps to zero.”

“Forty percent of Americans live on the coast, which means you have trillions of dollars at risk for climate change that hasn’t been modeled for default increases.” —Albert Slap, president, Coastal Risk Consulting

In the housing crisis of 2008, according to Becketti, a significant percentage of borrowers continued to make their mortgage payments even though the value of their homes was less than their mortgages.

Cynthia McHale, president of insurance, Ceres

“It is less likely that borrowers will continue to make mortgage payments if their homes are literally underwater,” Becketti said.

“As a result, lenders, servicers and mortgage insurers are likely to suffer large losses,” he said.

Insurers would suffer, according to Ceres’ McHale, and not just as backers of insurance policies.

“Insurance companies themselves are major commercial and residential mortgage holders,” she said.

“They assume that the property is going to hold its value and act as collateral if needed. If it doesn’t hold its value, where is the collateral?”

“Not only will their mortgages be metaphorically underwater, they are going to be literally underwater,” said Slap.

“And there is no coming back from it.”

“The New York Times” published a piece in November that detailed the case of Roy and Carol Baker of Sarasota, Fla. The Bakers tried for months to sell their home in Siesta Key, according to the story, but buyers kept backing out when they discovered the annual flood insurance premium was about $7,000.

“This experience will become more common, economists say, as the federal government shifts away from subsidizing flood insurance rates to get premiums closer to reflecting the true market cost of the risk,” reporter Ian Urbina wrote in his piece.

The Climate Race

What Becketti, Slap and others say is true, said Helen Thompson, a director, commercial marketing at Esri, the mapping and analytics company that works with insurers and property owners.

Advertisement




But she said there is a solution, the public and private sector working together to address the problem: That and about $4 trillion.

“The challenge for a lot of people is to understand the scope and the scale of this issue, and in some ways, like the mortgage bubble before, if you are ignorant of the problem, you can’t fix it,” she said.

“I think taking action means crafting a discussion of the problem and moderated expressions of what those solutions are, based on science and analysis and not hyperbole,” she said.

It’s well documented how dire the nation’s infrastructure needs are.

Thompson compares the current dilemma posed by climate change and sea rise in the U.S. and elsewhere to the cholera epidemic that ravaged London in the mid-19th century. What’s needed now, she said, is something akin to the massive public works projects that were undertaken to provide Londoners with cleaner drinking water.

“They realized the social and political cost of this,” Thompson said.

“We need to change our thinking to say this is not just about handing debt to our children, it’s about maintaining the same level of opportunity and quality of life for our children,” she said.

Thompson points to China, which she says is investing in climate change-resistant ports and additional infrastructure internationally to remain economically competitive.

“It’s in their best interests as a global manufacturing hub to mitigate the cost and the impact of climate change because of how much collateral damage it will do to their economies,” Thompson said.

Helen Thompson, director, commercial marketing, Esri

She said the U.S. needs to go down the same path, and step on it.

“I call it the ‘climate race,’ like the space race,” she said.

“The infrastructure needs to be created to deal with this, and the United States is massively lagging.”

Slap envisions another solution, a “climate ready” mortgage program, similar to the federal government’s energy efficient mortgage program, which gives property owners federally guaranteed loans to make energy efficiency upgrades.

Such a program would provide loans for sewage backflow preventers, changing the grade on a driveway, or elevating a home on a platform

Thompson said the massive infrastructure projects she envisions could include moving the vital container operations at the Port of Miami inland and constructing a berm to defend against sea water.

Office building owners in Lower Manhattan, which was so damaged by Superstorm Sandy, are increasingly investing in flood prevention barricades and moving critical building components like HVAC and plumbing components to higher floors.

Americans just got a chilling reminder of the dangers presented by changing weather patterns and crumbling infrastructure. Fears that the Oroville Dam on California’s Feather River would buckle under heavy rainfall got everyone’s attention.

Advertisement




“People are looking at that and saying, ‘We didn’t realize what this change in weather patterns means in the long term,’ ” Thompson said, and they are relating the Oroville event to infrastructure in their own towns and the risks they present.

As the NFIP undergoes its annual review in Congress, Slap said administrators would do well to exclude King Tide events.

“If you were to go to NFIP and ask them if they cover King Tide flooding, they would say, ‘If it meets our definition of flood then we must cover it.’ This is a red flag, because what you are saying is the government and the taxpayers are covering sea level rise and that is not something we can afford,” Slap said. &

________________________________________________________________

2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Artificial Intelligence Ties Liability in Knots

The same technologies that drive business forward are upending the nature of loss exposures and presenting new coverage challenges.

 

 

Cyber Business Interruption

Attacks on internet infrastructure begin, leaving unknown risks for insureds and insurers alike.

 

 

U.S. Economic Nationalism

Nationalistic policies aim to boost American wealth and prosperity, but they may do long-term economic damage.

 

 

Foreign Economic Nationalism

Economic nationalism is upsetting the risk management landscape by presenting challenges in once stable environments.

 

Dan Reynolds is editor-in-chief of Risk & Insurance. He can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Insurance Executive

A Leader for Turbulent Times

Lloyd’s CEO Inga Beale is tasked with guiding the venerable insurance market through Brexit and the demands of the fiercely competitive global specialty business.
By: | July 6, 2017 • 12 min read

Underwriters at Lloyd’s are accustomed to taking on complex, even daunting, risks. The company’s leader looks at the world today and sees plenty of opportunity, but also much to be concerned about.

“Political instability is something that troubles me more than anything else because I think there is now more uncertainty across the world than there has ever been,” said Inga Beale, CEO of Lloyd’s of London.

“It feels that all of the norms that I grew up with are being challenged — openness, globalization, acceptance, inclusion — on a global scale.”

Advertisement




Appropriately, we’re sitting around a table in Beale’s modern glass-fronted office at the top of the Lloyd’s Building — itself a vision from the future — to talk about Brexit and Lloyd’s newly announced Brussels subsidiary.

Add to the mix Donald Trump and the threat of nuclear attack from North Korea, the bombing of Syria and a spate of terrorist attacks across Europe, and it’s clear we are living in the most dangerous period certainly since the Cold War, or possibly ever, believes Beale.

That belief received even more chilling reinforcement when terrorists detonated a bomb at an Ariana Grande performance in Manchester, England on May 22.  Twenty two people, some of them children, were killed and more than 50 wounded in that attack.

Three years ago, it was Beale herself making world headlines with her appointment as the first female CEO in Lloyd’s 329-year history. But now Brexit and other seismic disruptions to world order have taken center stage.

Lloyd’s announced at the end of March that it would establish a new European subsidiary in Brussels in time for January 1, 2019 renewals so it can continue writing risks for all 27 European Union (EU) and three European Economic Area states after the UK exits the EU.

Currently, it uses its passporting rights to serve EU customers from London, but the expected loss of those rights after Brexit necessitated the establishment of a new subsidiary.

For now though, it’s business as usual, said Beale, with the UK remaining a full EU member for at least two more years. She added, with a reassuring smile, that there will be no immediate impact on existing policies, renewals or new policies written during that time.

“We were campaigning very much to remain in the EU before the referendum because we knew what the likely impact [of leaving the EU] would be on Lloyd’s,” said Beale, whose impressive resume includes stints with GE Insurance Solutions, Zurich and Canopius.

“We rely very much on our licensing network, and being part of the EU means that from London we can write insurance and reinsurance for all of the EU countries with our passporting authority.

“But with the UK exiting the EU, it now means that we lose those licensing powers to offer insurance with immediate effect. To counteract this, we have determined to set up a subsidiary within the EU, meaning that about five percent of our global revenues will have to go through this subsidiary because it is insurance business offered to our EU-based clients.”

Beale and her team also negotiated that most of Lloyd’s underwriting business will remain in London, as will the majority of the transactions and decision-making powers. Meanwhile, the manpower needed to run the new Brussels operation will be in the “tens rather than hundreds,” she is quick to point out.

“It’s not a huge raft of people having to move over,” she said.

“Lloyd’s will continue to do 95 percent of its business as it has always done — it’s only the other five percent that will have to go through a separate legal entity, and we’re not anticipating any further changes to our business model as a result.”

Beale, whose dual role is both supervisor and advocate for the market’s 100-something member underwriting syndicates, says that the franchise board chose Brussels over other locations including Luxembourg, Dublin and Malta because of its “robust and quality” regulatory regime.

“At the time, I didn’t even know that reinsurance existed, but once I discovered it I absolutely loved it.” — Inga Beale, CEO, Lloyd’s of London

It also provides access to a multilingual talent pool, is near to London, and, most importantly she stresses, is located in a member state with a “very high certainty of staying in the EU.”

“We want people who reflect our customers,” she said.

“The London insurance market is littered with people from all over the world because London is such a global insurance hub, so we need experts here who speak the language and understand the different cultures.”

North American Footprint

Despite its large European market, it’s the other side of the pond where Lloyd’s really thrives. Approximately 46 percent of its business comes from the U.S., mainly California earthquake and East Coast hurricane risks, she said.

Lloyd’s also remains the No.1 excess and surplus lines insurer in the U.S. and the largest non-U.S. domiciled insurer, she added.

“We have done really well in terms of growing our E&S market share over there,” she said.

“That’s our sweet spot; those non-standard risks that are hard to place.”

By contrast, Beale said that reinsurance has become a much more competitive market with new entrants offering alternative types of reinsurance putting a squeeze on prices. As a consequence, Lloyd’s has focused more on insurance, she said.

“We have also done well in Canada and with our delegated authority through our Managing General Underwriters and Managing General Agents,” she said.

“It’s this very local and specialist distribution channel that has been our success story across North America.”

In January, Beale was made a Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire — the female equivalent of being knighted — and is also the Association of Professional Insurance Women’s Insurance Woman of the Year for 2017.

“What concerns us most is not individual risks such as earthquakes and hurricanes, but rather assessing the aggregation of our exposures to financial and liability-type risks with no geographical boundaries.” — Inga Beale, CEO, Lloyd’s of London

As the person directing Lloyd’s, she is also acutely aware of the shift in power towards emerging economies, with McKinsey recently reporting that 67 percent of commercial insurance growth will come from those markets by 2020.

Advertisement




In response, Lloyd’s has focused its efforts on Asia and Latin America, transferring more than half of its managing agents to its Shanghai and Beijing platforms; and it was recently granted final approval to open a reinsurance office in Mumbai, she said.

“That’s where the future’s going to be,” she said.

“We know that a lot of the business is no longer coming to London in the traditional way, hence we have set up a Singapore platform and platforms in China, and opened up an office in Dubai as well as in India to be closer to our clients and brokers there.”

Lloyd’s profits last year were flat at $2.7 billion, while GWP was up $3.9 billion.

The market made a profit despite taking a $2.7 billion hit for major claims — the fifth highest such total since the turn of the century — primarily due to Hurricane Matthew and the Fort McMurray Wildfire in Canada.

Although natural disasters are Lloyd’s bread and butter, its real strength is in insuring complex risks, from cargo ships and satellites to political and terrorism risks.

Lloyd’s Role in Cyber

It’s the aggregation of those harder-to-quantify risks such as cyber security that concerns Beale most. Expected to grow to $7.5 billion in global premiums business by 2020, cyber is a big focus for Lloyd’s. It has a 25 percent market share and aggregate limits of approximately $650 million per risk, she said.

“What concerns us most is not individual risks such as earthquakes and hurricanes, but rather assessing the aggregation of our exposures to financial and liability-type risks with no geographical boundaries,” she said.

“We saw that with the financial crisis and the collapse of Fanny and Freddie, and its impact on Greece, but now it’s cyber.

“We have interviewed numerous risk managers and they are telling us that they are only insured against less than 10 percent of the risks that their businesses face on a daily basis. Our challenge is to make sure that we are continuing to adapt as fast as their businesses do and that we are delivering the relevant products that they need.”

Another area where Lloyd’s has seen an uptick is political and terrorism risk, said Beale.

The U.S. standoff with North Korea, Brexit and a swath of ISIS terrorist attacks across Europe have only exacerbated the problem, heightening fears among those countries’ citizens and tearing whole communities apart.

“We would love to get to a stage where a client can track something being quoted or a claim being paid, just like you do with a package being delivered [to your home].” — Inga Beale, CEO, Lloyd’s of London

Just witness the anguish of the victims and families in the Manchester concert bombing.

“We have seen a dramatic increase in demand for these types of products because of the political instability everywhere at the moment, particularly for companies that are trading cross border with countries where governments can suddenly intervene at a moment’s notice,” she said.

“Similarly, businesses are looking to protect themselves against the ever-growing threat of terrorism, which is where Lloyd’s can step in to give them the confidence to keep on trading.”

Reforming Lloyd’s

Within Lloyd’s itself, Beale has been at the forefront of trying to modernize the aging institution. Despite its modern metallic and glass exterior, inside Lloyd’s there’s still very much what some might term a stuffy “old boys’ club” culture.

Men are required to wear a tie and women weren’t allowed into the underwriting room until 1972. Brokers still walk around with leather slipcases crammed full of paper.

The Lloyd’s headquarters on Lime Street.

Beale’s predecessor, Richard Ward, tried to modernize Lloyd’s but left plenty for Beale to address in that respect.

Beale committed $700 million over the next five years to upgrade Lloyd’s aging computer and IT systems, with the end goal of achieving one-touch data capture to speed up the premiums and claims process.

“It’s about following that data all the way through the process from the client to the intermediary and the underwriter, and the processing of the premiums and claims,” she said.

“We would love to get to a stage where a client can track something being quoted or a claim being paid, just like you do with a package being delivered [to your home].”

Another area Beale is keen to shake up is diversity within Lloyd’s itself. Currently the market is two-thirds male, while only 11 percent of the whole London insurance market are non-UK nationals — a damning statistic that Beale is all too aware of.

“The Lloyd’s market doesn’t reflect the demographics of the whole of London and we are very conscious that we’re not tapping into all of the available talent that’s out there,” she said.

“We need to cut out the old ideas, try to challenge the unconscious bias and create an environment that is welcoming for people who are a bit different.”

Beale has also been pushing the [email protected] initiative, currently in its third year, and in September Lloyd’s will host the third annual Dive In festival to promote diversity and inclusion in the insurance industry.

In addition, 95 percent of the Lloyd’s market has already signed up to its Diversity & Inclusion charter to improve diversity, she said.

“To attract the best talent we need to modernize and look at how we can change our working practices and hiring decisions for the better,” she said.

Advertisement




“There’s a vast amount of work that we are actively doing to encourage people to be more open and seek more diverse talent.”

On a personal level, Beale readily admits that she was late to the leadership game, and it was only her mentor, Annette Sadolin at GE, who convinced her to take her first promotion.

That lack of confidence is something that, as a leader, Beale has witnessed in her own team and she is keen to help overcome.

“Annette became very much a mentor for me throughout my career, so whenever I have had to make key decisions I would always ask her view,” she said.

“The key lesson that I have learnt from her is that things move so quickly and you need to take opportunities when they come along that give you exposure to something new, even if they don’t seem like a natural career path at the time.

“For me, being a leader is all about inclusion and being passionate about the people you work with because you need to inspire and motivate them. But there is also nothing more rewarding than watching people progress their careers.”

A Truly Global Journey

Beale, who initially harbored ambitions of being an architect, admits that she “fell into reinsurance,” starting as a trainee international treaty reinsurance underwriter at Prudential Assurance Company in London in 1982. But once she had a taste there was no turning back.

“At the time, I didn’t even know that reinsurance existed, but once I discovered it I absolutely loved it,” she said.

“I fell in love with the global nature of the risks that came to London; one day you could be looking at a piece of business from Chile, the next from Australia.”

But, back then, working in a male-dominated industry where she was the only woman among 35 men, Beale struggled to fit in. So she quit and went travelling for 10 months.

It was during her time as a receptionist at the BBC in Sydney, Australia that Beale worked under her first female boss, a formidable woman, she said.

Inspired by her boss’s strong work ethic, Beale decided to return to the insurance business.

She soon landed a job with GE Insurance Solutions in Kansas City, where she held various underwriting management roles, before being appointed president of GE Frankona and head of continental Europe, Middle East and Africa for GE Insurance Solutions in Germany.

Advertisement




After 14 years at GE, Beale moved to Switzerland with Converium as group CEO in 2006.

Two years later, she joined Zurich Insurance Group as a member of the group management board in Zurich before being appointed global chief underwriting officer, prior to her appointment as group CEO at Canopius in 2012.

The breadth and depth of her experience makes Beale a natural fit for the demands of the Lloyd’s top job.

There’s no doubt she’ll be drawing upon every ounce of that expertise and experience to keep Lloyd’s at the cutting edge of this harrowing new world we live in.

Alex Wright is a U.K.-based business journalist, who previously was deputy business editor at The Royal Gazette in Bermuda. You can reach him at [email protected]