Workers’ Comp MSA Costs Run 23% Below National Average Where Clinical Intervention Is Applied
Workers’ compensation payers that take a proactive, medically driven approach to Medicare Secondary Payer compliance achieved federally approved Medicare Set-Aside (MSA) allocations averaging 23% below national Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services averages between 2022 and 2025, according to a report from Tower MSA Partners.
In 2025 alone, Tower’s average CMS-approved Workers’ Compensation Medicare Set-Aside (WCMSA) came in at $67,692, compared to a CMS national average of $86,169, a per-file difference of $18,477. For programs resolving 100 Medicare-eligible claims annually, the report noted, a differential of that magnitude would represent approximately $2 million in projected settlement exposure variance.
Pharmacy and Opioid Management Drive Allocation Reductions
Pharmacy costs represent one of the primary drivers of inflated MSA allocations, and the report’s data suggests clinical engagement can substantially curtail that exposure. From 2022 to 2025, clinical interventions, including physician follow-up and pharmacy optimization, produced annual reductions in MSA amounts ranging from 33% to 64%, with 2025 coming in at 47%, the report said. In dollar terms, those interventions generated between $9 million and $12 million in annual savings across the four-year period.
The pharmacy-specific results were notable. In 2025, 60% of CMS-approved MSAs carried a $0 pharmacy allocation, and 86% contained no opioid allocation. Across the full 2022–2025 period, 56% to 65% of approved MSAs had no pharmacy component, and 84% to 89% had no opioid component. The report attributed these outcomes to active physician engagement and care plan realignment rather than passive projection adjustments.
A case study included in the report illustrated the potential scope of individual-file impact. An initial MSA projection of $285,151, driven largely by medications that had not been documented as discontinued, was reduced to $53,664 after a treating physician provided a signed attestation confirming the actual medication and injection regimen. CMS approved the lower amount without issuing a development letter, nine days after submission, for a savings of $231,487.
Settlement Friction and Conditional Payment Exposure
Beyond MSA allocations, the report examined conditional payment outcomes. Unresolved conditional payment demands are a frequent source of last-minute settlement delays, the report said. Across the 2022-2025 period, conditional payment demand amounts were reduced by more than 90% on average each year, with approximately 70% to 83% of demands reduced to $0. In 2025, 82% of demands were eliminated entirely.
The report also found that the gap between average and median savings per demand reflects a portfolio effect: a relatively small number of high-value demands drives up average savings, but even the median case produced low- to mid-four-figure reductions. In 2025, average savings per demand were $13,873; the median was $2,071.
On the submission side, 84% to 90% of MSA submissions avoided CMS development letters across the period, which the report linked to pre-submission documentation preparation. When development letters are not issued, CMS review time has fallen from 23 days in 2022 to 15 days in 2025, the report said.
Regulatory Shifts Raise Documentation Stakes
The report identified two regulatory developments that employers and their MSP partners will need to factor into program governance. Beginning in April 2025, expanded Section 111 reporting gave CMS enhanced visibility into settlement patterns and MSA activity. Then in July 2025, CMS ceased reviewing $0 MSAs, shifting responsibility for documenting and defending zero-allocation decisions entirely to payers and their partners.
The report noted that incomplete medical records, unclear accepted or denied body parts, DME gaps, and missing prescription history remain the most common triggers for development letters. With CMS no longer providing a review backstop for $0 allocations, the report said, internal documentation standards and structured decision-making around non-submitted MSAs have become more consequential for programs managing Medicare-eligible claims at scale.
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