U.S. Commercial Insurance Rates Decline 1% in Q1 2025, Casualty Lines Buck Trend

U.S. commercial insurance rates declined overall in Q1 2025, except for casualty lines, marking a reversal of recent quarterly rate trends, according to Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index.
The U.S. commercial insurance market experienced a 1% overall decline in composite rates during the first quarter, primarily driven by a significant 9% decrease in property insurance rates. This followed a 0% rate increase in Q4 2024, a 3% increase in Q3 and a 1% increase in the second quarter of 2024.
Globally, a 3% decline in composite commercial lines rates marked the third consecutive quarter of global rate decline, following seven years of quarterly increases, Marsh reported.
The drop in U.S. property rates contributed substantially to the global property insurance rate decrease of 6%.
“It’s important to keep in mind that insurance pricing trends can, at any given time, be suddenly reversed due to a variety of factors, including a major catastrophe or series of catastrophes. For example, every year brings a keen eye on the North American tropical storm/hurricane season,” said John Donnelly, president, Global Placement for Marsh.
The U.S. casualty market, however, is moving in the opposite direction, with rates rising 8% in Q1, up from 7% in Q4, but down from the 10% casualty rate hikes of Q3 2024. The casualty rate increase is largely attributed to the severity of claims and large jury verdicts—often referred to as “nuclear verdicts”—which have caused available capacity to tighten. Underwriters have responded by continuing to reduce their lines sizes in this segment, Marsh noted.
The U.S. pricing trends are influencing other global markets, particularly in the casualty space, where U.S. market conditions typically impact rates and coverage in other regions, Marsh noted.
Casualty Rate Trends for Insurance Buyers
The breadth of rate declines—seen in all regions and product lines apart from casualty—represents a positive shift for insurance buyers. According to Marsh, clients in the first quarter generally benefited both from reductions in pricing and improved coverage options.
Financial and professional lines rates decreased 6% globally, declining in every region. The UK and Pacific regions experienced the most significant decreases at 10%, while the U.S. saw a more modest 3% decrease.
Similarly, cyber insurance rates declined 6% globally, with U.S. cyber rates down 4% — the eighth-consecutive quarter of rate decreases — and Europe seeing the largest regional decrease at 10%.
“Driven by increased insurer competition, global commercial insurance trends continued to improve for our clients, on average, in the first quarter of 2025, with the exception of U.S. casualty. We expect these trends to continue and for insurer competition to intensify, barring unforeseen changes in conditions,” Donnelly noted.
View the full report here. &