P&C Insurers Report Strong Returns, Cautious Optimism for Q2 2024

Despite potential headwinds, more stable rates and competition keep pricing favorable for commercial insurance buyers, Lockton reports.
By: | September 25, 2024
Topics: Cyber | D&O | Liability | News | Property
commercial insurance pricing

Commercial property/casualty insurers continue to report strong returns in 2024, buoyed by rising investment income, a growing economy, and a relatively mild wind season, according to a market update from Lockton. This has kept conditions largely favorable for buyers across most lines of coverage, despite an underlying sense of fragility in the market and several potential headwinds on the horizon, the broker reported.

“We’re seeing generally favorable market conditions, some of the best we have seen in the last five years, and with insurers reporting strong profits, there’s reason for continued optimism,” said Mark Moitoso, Lockton’s Risk Practices Leader. “However, a large, unexpected event could end this stable and predictable market, so it’s critical to be mindful of the uncertainty ahead when evaluating your insurance program.”

Insurers are closely monitoring several potential challenges that could quickly alter the landscape. Social inflation continues to drive up loss rates across virtually all liability lines, raising questions about the adequacy of rates and reserves, Lockton stated. Recent high-profile technology outages and data breaches are a stark reminder of the accumulating dangers posed by cyber threats.

Climate risks also loom large as a significant long-term concern for insurers, the report noted. Natural catastrophes generated $60 billion in global insured losses in the first half of 2024, 62% greater than the $37 billion average for the previous 10 years, according to figures from the Swiss Re Institute. Roughly 70% of the first-half insured losses stemmed from severe convective storms in the U.S.

Geopolitical hotspots, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait, are additional areas that insurers are watching closely. With uncertainty lurking, insurers are fully aware that any large, unexpected event could swiftly change market conditions across many lines of coverage, so insurers are proceeding with caution, according to the report.

Rate Changes and Outlook by Line of Insurance

  • Property insurance market conditions continue to improve for buyers, Lockton stated. In the second quarter of 2024, median property insurance prices rose 2.3%, significantly less than the 12.4% increase seen a year earlier. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2024, non-catastrophe exposed properties can expect rate changes ranging from a 10% decrease to a 5% increase. Properties with catastrophe exposure are likely to see rates hold flat or increase by up to 15%.
  • The workers’ compensation market remains highly profitable and competitive. Median guaranteed cost workers’ comp rates declined 4.1% in Q2 2024 while loss sensitive rates fell 1.4%, both greater decreases than in the prior year quarter. For Q3, guaranteed cost rates are projected to range from a 5% decrease to flat, and loss-sensitive rates may fall 2-3%.
  • In the liability space, pricing continues to climb at a steady and predictable pace, Lockton reported. General liability rates rose 5.1% on average in Q2, and auto liability rates jumped 9.0%, up from the 4.2% and 8.8% respective increases a year ago. General liability buyers should plan for rates to rise 5-10% in the third quarter, while auto liability rates may spike 10-15%.
  • Public company D&O insurance buyers are benefiting from a persistently soft market. Median public D&O pricing plunged 11.5% in Q2 2024, compared to a 12.7% drop a year earlier. Private and nonprofit D&O programs saw median pricing dip 0.5% after being flat in Q2 2023. Public company D&O rates are expected to range from a 10% decrease to flat in Q3, while private company rates may fall or rise by up to 5%.
  • Competition among cyber insurers is keeping prices favorable for buyers, Lockton reported. Total cyber program pricing fell 6.3% at the median in the second quarter, a bigger decrease than Q2 2023’s 4.8% drop. Cyber insurance buyers are likely to see rates range from a 10% decrease to flat in the upcoming quarter.

View the full report here.

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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