Economic Volatility Dominates 2026 Emerging Risks, as AI Looms Long-Term
Risk leaders in insurance and financial services face a bifurcated risk landscape — managing immediate economic and geopolitical pressures while preparing for a technology-driven future, according to the 2026 Emerging Risks Survey, jointly published by the Casualty Actuarial Society and Society of Actuaries.
The survey provided a list of 17 risks and asked respondents — chief risk officers, chief actuaries, lead consulting partners, and senior thought leaders — to identify the one that would have the greatest impact in their company in 2026. Economic concerns dominated the 2026 outlook, with 60% of C-suite respondents identifying a risk in the economic (34%) or geopolitical (26%) categories as the greatest near-term threats to their organizations, followed by technological (19%), environmental (14%) and social (7%).
Financial volatility was the top specific risk concern, with 25% of executives citing greater-than-normal financial volatility as the single most impactful risk in 2026, followed by geoeconomic and globalization shifts cited by 19%.
The economic focus reflects caution about market conditions. Survey respondents expect moderate economic growth in North American and global markets, with over 60% anticipating moderate inflation levels. Labor market sentiment is notably pessimistic — more than half of respondents expect a weaker North American labor market in 2026, as job growth is likely to continue at a slower pace than recent years due to cautious corporate spending and demographic headwinds, the report said.
Environmental risks, specifically extreme weather events, also registered concern among respondents, selected by 14% as most impactful in 2026. Technological risks lagged in the near-term rankings, with only 19% viewing them as most impactful in 2026, though this perception shifts dramatically when looking beyond the immediate horizon, according to the report.
The Long-Term Technological Takeover
A fundamental reordering occurs when executives look into the future, the report noted. The category of economic risks is viewed as likely to be impactful three or more years from now by 26%, but technological risks — particularly artificial intelligence — emerge as the dominant long-term concern, with 34% selecting a risk in this category.
In particular, 27% of executives believe AI adverse outcomes will be the single most impactful risk three or more years in the future, compared to just 8% who selected it as a near-term threat. Another technological risk concern is cyber, cited by 6% as having the greatest impact three or more years from now.
This nearly threefold increase in concern about AI over a three-year period signals mounting apprehension about the technology’s potential disruptions, according to the report. By contrast, geopolitical risks fade in importance for the longer term, dropping from 19% of concerns in 2026 to outside the top five risks when looking three or more years ahead.
Management responses also reveal that geopolitical concerns have evolved. Rather than focusing solely on armed conflict, executives now frame geopolitical risks through trade controls, sanctions, and tariffs that disrupt global supply chains and market access, the report said.
Risk Combinations Reshape Strategic Planning
When executives consider risks operating in combination, the technological dimension becomes even more pronounced. A combination of cyber events and AI adverse outcomes ranks as the most frequently cited risk pairing, selected by nearly 10% of C-suite respondents. Financial volatility paired with AI adverse outcomes is as an equally pressing combination, cited by 9%.
These combinations reveal vulnerabilities that may not appear when examining individual risks in isolation. For example, adverse outcomes from frontier technologies — which garnered no individual selections as most impactful — appeared in the top seven risk combinations, demonstrating how examining multiple risks in sequence or simultaneously can illuminate previously hidden exposures.
The prominence of these pairings illustrates a critical insight: executives are increasingly viewing their risk environment through a systems lens, recognizing that individual risk events amplify when occurring alongside other disruptions, the report said. AI adverse outcomes appear in 33% of all first-selected risk combinations, while financial volatility features in 31%, underscoring their centrality to long-term risk architecture.
Divergent Risk Profiles Across Industry Segments
One-size-fits-all risk management proves inadequate, as different segments of the insurance and financial services industry exhibit markedly different risk priorities, according to the report. Life insurance company executives overwhelmingly select financial volatility as 2026’s top concern at 63%. Property and casualty insurers prioritize environmental risks — 22% select extreme weather events as most impactful — while consulting firm risk leaders fixate on technological disruption, with 35% identifying artificial intelligence adverse outcomes as the dominant near-term risk.
This segmentation extends to longer-term views as well. P&C insurers maintain their environmental focus, while life insurers broaden concerns to include cyber events and demographic shifts. Consulting firms remain technology-centric in their outlooks.
What the Evolution Means
The survey reveals an important phenomenon in risk assessment: as risks become better understood and embedded within enterprise risk management frameworks, they migrate from “emerging” status to core, ongoing risks, according to the report. For example, climate-related risks have declined in emerging risk rankings not because they’ve become less significant, but because they’re now widely measured and actively managed. This suggests that today’s emerging risks — particularly around AI — will eventually transition to standard risk management protocols, but only after organizations invest in understanding and mitigating them.
The pattern also underscores the importance of longitudinal tracking in risk assessment. By comparing survey responses across multiple years, insurance and financial services leaders can distinguish between temporary spikes in concern and lasting structural shifts. The sustained elevation of technological risks across recent survey cycles signals genuine, long-term structural change rather than reactive anxiety, the report said.
Obtain the full report here. &

