Risk Insider: Joe Tocco

Ocean Warming Risk: Why Does it Matter to Insurance?

By: | October 4, 2016 • 2 min read
Currently Chief Executive of the Americas for XL Catlin’s insurance operation, Joe Tocco has enjoyed three decades in the insurance industry at various organizations. He is also a veteran of the U.S. Navy, where he served as a nuclear field service engineer. He can be reached at [email protected]

One of the things I’ve seen firsthand in my insurance career is the interrelated nature of risks; they rarely occur in isolation. A loss in one area often triggers or exacerbates others. Such is also the nature of our environment, where we are observing disturbing changes.

I was fortunate to have served in the U.S. Navy and have been awed ever since by the oceans’ vastness, power and complexity. Understanding the oceans is difficult. Astonishingly, humans have spent 100 times more hours on the moon than in the deepest part of Earth’s oceans.

A new report on ocean warming by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), titled Explaining ocean warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences describes the phenomenon as ‘one of the greatest hidden challenges of our generation.’ The analysis report has been compiled by 80 scientists from 12 countries.

Even though our planet has enough land area to accommodate more than 7 billion people, 71 percent of its surface is covered by water. Oceans have a critical influence on life as we know it – heating and cooling the planet, providing food and supporting global commerce, yet we have only recently started to understand them.

If science and nations are to mitigate climate change, we must clearly grasp how the decline in coral reef health, loss of polar ice, ocean warming, sea level rise and ocean acidification are affecting the people and property that the insurance industry helps to protect.

The report, which is sponsored by XL Catlin’s Deep Ocean Survey initiative, is the third in a series of scientific research programs to better understand the key indicators of climate change. One of the missions of the Survey is to pilot a systematic method for scientists around the world to assess ocean health. What we are learning so far has been startling:

  • Sea levels have risen about 20 centimeters (about 8 inches) since pre-industrial times. If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, sea levels will rise a further 99 cm (39 inches) by 2100.
  • Many of the world’s largest cities, including New York and London, are exposed to flooding from sea level rise.
  • Hundreds of millions of people will be forced to relocate if sea levels rise at the current rate.
  • In the United States alone, $500 billion of coastal property could be below sea level by the end of this century.
  • The ocean absorbs excess heat and carbon dioxide, and far more of that heat is now buried in the deep ocean, below 700 meters, than was found 20 years ago.
  • CO2 dissolves in seawater to form carbonic acid, increasing acidity. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1750, the acidification of the ocean has increased 30 percent. That change has led to the destruction of coral reefs and many marine species.

Why should the insurance industry care about ocean warming? For one thing, we are in the risk business, and ocean warming represents enormous risks. To manage any risk, we first have to understand it.

If science and nations are to mitigate climate change, we must clearly grasp how the decline in coral reef health, loss of polar ice, ocean warming, sea level rise and ocean acidification are affecting the people and property that the insurance industry helps to protect.

As an industry built on managing risk, we must continue to study the risks facing our planet from climate change and work together to mitigate their effects. Let’s use our expertise in analyzing risk and helping rebuild lives and livelihoods to preserve opportunities for future generations.

2017 RIMS

Resilience in Face of Cyber

New cyber model platforms will help insurers better manage aggregation risk within their books of business.
By: | April 26, 2017 • 3 min read

As insurers become increasingly concerned about the aggregation of cyber risk exposures in their portfolios, new tools are being developed to help them better assess and manage those exposures.

 One of those tools, a comprehensive cyber risk modeling application for the insurance and reinsurance markets, was announced on April 24 by AIR Worldwide.

Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide

Last year at RIMS, AIR announced the release of the industry’s first open source deterministic cyber risk scenario, subsequently releasing a series of scenarios throughout the year, and offering the service to insurers on a consulting basis.

Its latest release, ARC– Analytics of Risk from Cyber — continues that work by offering the modeling platform for license to insurance clients for internal use rather than on a consulting basis. ARC is separate from AIR’s Touchstone platform, allowing for more flexibility in the rapidly changing cyber environment.

ARC allows insurers to get a better picture of their exposures across an entire book of business, with the help of a comprehensive industry exposure database that combines data from multiple public and commercial sources.

The recent attacks on Dyn and Amazon Web Services (AWS) provide perfect examples of how the ARC platform can be used to enhance the industry’s resilience, said Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist for AIR Worldwide.

Stransky noted that insurers don’t necessarily have visibility into which of their insureds use Dyn, Amazon Web Services, Rackspace, or other common internet services providers.

In the Dyn and AWS events, there was little insured loss because the downtime fell largely just under policy waiting periods.

But,” said Stransky, “it got our clients thinking, well it happened for a few hours – could it happen for longer? And what does that do to us if it does? … This is really where our model can be very helpful.”

The purpose of having this model is to make the world more resilient … that’s really the goal.”Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide

AIR has run the Dyn incident through its model, with the parameters of a single day of downtime impacting the Fortune 1000. Then it did the same with the AWS event.

When we run Fortune 1000 for Dyn for one day, we get a half a billion dollars of loss,” said Stransky. “Taking it one step further – we’ve run the same exercise for AWS for one day, through the Fortune 1000 only, and the losses are about $3 billion.”

So once you expand it out to millions of businesses, the losses would be much higher,” he added.

The ARC platform allows insurers to assess cyber exposures including “silent cyber,” across the spectrum of business, be it D&O, E&O, general liability or property. There are 18 scenarios that can be modeled, with the capability to adjust variables broadly for a better handle on events of varying severity and scope.

Looking ahead, AIR is taking a closer look at what Stransky calls “silent silent cyber,” the complex indirect and difficult to assess or insure potential impacts of any given cyber event.

Stransky cites the 2014 hack of the National Weather Service website as an example. For several days after the hack, no satellite weather imagery was available to be fed into weather models.

Imagine there was a hurricane happening during the time there was no weather service imagery,” he said. “[So] the models wouldn’t have been as accurate; people wouldn’t have had as much advance warning; they wouldn’t have evacuated as quickly or boarded up their homes.”

It’s possible that the losses would be significantly higher in such a scenario, but there would be no way to quantify how much of it could be attributed to the cyber attack and how much was strictly the result of the hurricane itself.

It’s very, very indirect,” said Stransky, citing the recent hack of the Dallas tornado sirens as another example. Not only did the situation jam up the 911 system, potentially exacerbating any number of crisis events, but such a false alarm could lead to increased losses in the future.

The next time if there’s a real tornado, people make think, ‘Oh, its just some hack,’ ” he said. “So if there’s a real tornado, who knows what’s going to happen.”

Modeling for “silent silent cyber” remains elusive. But platforms like ARC are a step in the right direction for ensuring the continued health and strength of the insurance industry in the face of the ever-changing specter of cyber exposure.

Because we have this model, insurers are now able to manage the risks better, to be more resilient against cyber attacks, to really understand their portfolios,” said Stransky. “So when it does happen, they’ll be able to respond, they’ll be able to pay out the claims properly, they’ll be prepared.

The purpose of having this model is to make the world more resilient … that’s really the goal.”

Additional stories from RIMS 2017:

Blockchain Pros and Cons

If barriers to implementation are brought down, blockchain offers potential for financial institutions.

Embrace the Internet of Things

Risk managers can use IoT for data analytics and other risk mitigation needs, but connected devices also offer a multitude of exposures.

Feeling Unprepared to Deal With Risks

Damage to brand and reputation ranked as the top risk concern of risk managers throughout the world.

Reviewing Medical Marijuana Claims

Liberty Mutual appears to be the first carrier to create a workflow process for evaluating medical marijuana expense reimbursement requests.

Cyber Threat Will Get More Difficult

Companies should focus on response, resiliency and recovery when it comes to cyber risks.

RIMS Conference Held in Birthplace of Insurance in US

Carriers continue their vital role of helping insureds mitigate risks and promote safety.

Michelle Kerr is associate editor of Risk & Insurance. She can be reached at [email protected]