U.S. P&C Insurance Outlook: Cautious Optimism for 2025-2026 Amid Tariff Threats

P&C insurers projected to maintain 10% ROE through 2026 despite slowing premium growth, tariff-driven auto parts inflation, catastrophe losses, and ongoing reserve challenges: Swiss Re.
By: | April 23, 2025
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The U.S. property & casualty insurance industry faces a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025-2026, with strong underlying performance tempered by significant risks from tariffs, natural catastrophes, and reserve uncertainties, according to analysis from Swiss Re Institute.

The P&C sector is entering a period of more modest growth after several years of exceptional expansion, the report says. Direct premiums written are forecast to grow by 5% in 2025, decelerating to 4% in 2026, as the industry returns to longer-term averages. This slowdown reflects increased competition in key segments, particularly personal auto, where insurers more than doubled their advertising expenditure to $8.1 billion in 2024 as they compete for market share following profitability improvements, Swiss Re said.

Return on equity is projected to hold steady at 10% for both 2025 and 2026, representing a slight decline from 11% in 2024. This moderation stems from several factors, according to the report: premium growth is easing amid heightened competition, while the underwriting tailwinds that drove 2024 improvements—strong premium growth, easing inflation, and low claims severity growth—are largely in the rearview mirror.

Investment performance continues to provide some stability, with portfolio yields expected to rise to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2024. While investment income will continue to rise, the pace of improvement is slowing as the gap between new money yields and portfolio yields narrows, Swiss Re noted.

Emerging Risks Threaten Stability

Tariffs represent a major threat to the industry outlook, particularly for personal lines affected by auto and construction loss cost shocks. The 25% tariff on imported cars that took effect April 4, along with the same tariff applying to imported car parts starting May 3, could significantly disrupt pricing models, the report says. The magnitude and duration of these tariffs remain key uncertainties, especially regarding vehicles under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement.

Catastrophe losses have already made their mark in 2025, with first-quarter California wildfires adding approximately 3 percentage points to the industry net combined ratio, depleting nearly half of the industry’s annual catastrophe budget, according to Swiss Re. Other catastrophe activity in Q1 was slightly above average, heightening concerns about severe convective storm impacts later in the year.

Reserve adequacy represents another significant risk factor. U.S. insurers added $16 billion to prior years’ liability loss estimates during 2024 reserve reviews, raising the calendar year loss ratio for liability lines by 9 percentage points. Over the past decade (2015-2024), total adverse development of $62 billion for commercial liability lines represents a collective underestimate equivalent to the damages from two major hurricanes, the reinsurer noted.

While this was offset by favorable development in other lines, particularly workers’ compensation, this benefit is expected to diminish as workers’ compensation becomes a smaller part of industry premiums.

Competitive Pressures and Underwriting Discipline

The U.S. P&C industry combined ratio is expected to deteriorate slightly, reaching a projected 98.5% in 2025 and 99% by 2026, up from 97.2% in 2024. The 2024 performance was better than initially estimated, driven by a 9 percentage point improvement in the personal lines loss ratio. However, this improvement phase appears to be ending, even before considering tariff uncertainty.

Social inflation remains an ongoing concern, contributing to elevated loss ratios in general liability and commercial auto liability lines. The impact of social inflation on liability lines is evidenced by the substantial reserve additions in 2024, suggesting that insurers continue to grapple with accurately pricing for this trend.

As premium growth slows and economic inflation remains persistent, insurers face the dual challenge of maintaining profitability while navigating potential shocks to construction and car costs that could threaten homeowners and personal auto underwriting performance. This balancing act will likely define industry performance in the coming years.

View the full report here.

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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