Global Insurance Growth Set to Slow to 2% in 2025 as US Tariffs Reshape Market Dynamics

Global insurance industry growth is decelerating significantly, with total premium growth forecast to slow to 2% in 2025 from 5.2% in 2024, as U.S. tariff policies and rising geopolitical fragmentation create new risks and reshape market dynamics, according to analysis by Swiss Re Institute.
While the insurance sector faces mounting challenges from trade disruptions and political uncertainty, rising investment yields and demographic shifts present offsetting opportunities, according to the report.
The global insurance industry confronts a dramatically altered landscape as both life and non-life sectors experience synchronized deceleration. Non-life insurance premium growth is expected to drop to 2.6% in 2025 from 4.7% in 2024, while life insurance premiums will grow just 1% compared to 6.1% last year.
U.S. tariffs represent the most immediate catalyst for change, directly impacting claims severity across multiple lines of business, according to Swiss Re. Auto physical damage insurance faces the greatest exposure, with repair costs for auto parts and vehicle replacements rising due to import tariffs.
Swiss Re forecasts U.S. auto repair and replacement costs will increase 3.8% in 2025, a sharp reversal from the 0.8% decrease previously projected. Construction-related claims costs are similarly affected, with U.S. construction costs now expected to rise 3.6% versus the earlier forecast of 2.5%.
The timing amplifies these pressures, as tariff-driven inflation peaks during the Atlantic hurricane season, potentially magnifying post-catastrophe repair costs, according to the report.
Other specialty lines including marine, aviation, and trade credit insurance face reduced demand as global trade volumes contract, the report noted.
Rate dynamics across markets reflect these underlying pressures unevenly, Swiss Re said. While personal lines insurers experience intensifying competition following recent profitability restoration, commercial property insurance rates are softening globally.
U.S. commercial property rates fell 9% in the first quarter of 2025, while continental European rates declined 1%. However, U.S. casualty insurance lines maintain firmer pricing, with rates up 8% due to persistent social inflation concerns, the report noted.
Fragmentation Threatens Core Industry Functions
The shift toward economic and political fragmentation poses fundamental challenges to insurance industry operations, particularly the global risk diversification that enables coverage of catastrophic events. This fragmentation could restrict cross-border capital flows essential for reinsurance markets and limit the insurance industry’s capacity to absorb peak risks, according to Swiss Re.
Historical data illustrates this vulnerability: after the 2005 U.S. hurricane season, 12% of U.S. insurers received reinsurance payments equal to 100% of their equity, with 23% receiving payments exceeding one-third of equity. Such risk transfer depends on global capital mobility that fragmentation could curtail, the report said.
The protection gap implications are substantial. Swiss Re Institute estimates the global protection gap reached $1.83 trillion in premium equivalent terms in 2023, with more than 40% of crop, health, mortality and natural catastrophe exposures remaining unprotected.
Fragmentation threatens to widen these gaps further as reduced international cooperation limits the availability and affordability of insurance coverage, Swiss Re said.
Demographic trends, however, create significant opportunities for insurers, particularly in life insurance markets. The emerging “silver economy” presents new prospects as the global population over age 65 reaches 1 billion by 2050. Swiss Re Institute projects global life premiums will reach $5.1 trillion by 2035, with demographic shifts supporting average annual growth of 2.5% over the next decade.
Investment conditions provide another bright spot for insurers. Rising reinvestment yields continue supporting profitability across both life and non-life insurance sectors. Property and casualty insurers should see return on equity stabilize around 9.7% through 2027, while life insurers benefit from structurally higher interest rates feeding into asset portfolios over the next 2-3 years.
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