Commercial Insurance Market Shows Mixed Signals in Q3 2025

Buyers face favorable conditions amid growing uncertainty and evolving risks, according to a report from Gallagher.
By: | August 11, 2025
global risks report

An analysis of commercial insurance trends for Q3 2025 reveal a market characterized by both opportunity and caution, according to Gallagher.

Four distinct trends are defining the current commercial insurance environment, according to the brokere:

  • Preparing for challenging casualty renewals.
  • Stable property insurance conditions.
  • AI amplifying cyber risk exposures.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty.

The casualty insurance market faces mounting pressure from escalating claims costs and an increase in nuclear and thermonuclear verdicts, according to the report. Extended litigation timelines and growing interest in litigation funding have created additional casualty insurance market disruption, prompting insurers to reassess their approaches to coverage and pricing.

In contrast, the commercial property insurance market maintains stability despite significant natural disasters, including severe flooding across multiple regions and California wildfires, the report said. Carriers demonstrate eagerness to expand their portfolios and offer rate reductions as competition intensifies, Gallagher noted.

However, this stability occurs against a backdrop of widespread concern, with a 2025 Gallagher survey of business owners finding that 91% of respondents are worried that natural disasters will adversely affect their operations, Gallagher found.

The cyber insurance sector also is seeing rising concern among business owners. The percentage of business owners concerned about cyberattacks increased to 72% in the 2025 survey from 69% in 2024.

The cyber insurance market is also facing evolving challenges as artificial intelligence amplifies risk exposure, Gallagher said.

Deepfake technology poses new threats through sophisticated social engineering scams using manipulated images, text, audio and video content, according to the report. These AI-powered tools are becoming increasingly accessible and user-friendly, the report noted.

Lastly, macroeconomic uncertainty globally is making some commercial insurance buyers cautious about making strategic shifts or taking on new ventures, the report said.

Strategic Actions for Risk Management

Commercial insurance buyers can position themselves advantageously by taking proactive steps across all coverage areas, Gallagher said.

For casualty insurance, companies should evaluate their current program structures as foundations for modification rather than fixed frameworks. Effective strategies include increasing self-insured retentions on primary policies, securing buffer layers and adjusting attachment points within umbrella and excess coverage towers, the broker suggested.

Property insurance buyers should leverage the current competitive environment while remaining vigilant about market volatility and severe weather exposure. Risk mitigation planning for catastrophic events becomes essential, utilizing data and catastrophic modeling technology to better understand exposure profiles, the report said. Companies should also examine potential gaps in cyber-physical coverage as operational risks evolve.

Cyber risk management requires comprehensive employee training programs to identify and report phishing attempts and suspicious activities, Gallagher said. Regular evaluation and testing of security systems, controls and protocols provides additional protection layers. Since cyber liability insurance coverage for deepfake-related incidents varies significantly among policies, organizations should review specific policy details and coverage potential with their brokers, the report recommended.

Access the full commentary by Gallagher here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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