Casualty Catastrophe Market Presents $5B Growth Opportunity as Mass Litigation Surges

The casualty insurance market faces a $5 billion growth opportunity as mass litigation events become more frequent, transforming what were once rare occurrences into systematic market disruptions that rival property catastrophes in scale and impact, according to a new report from Moody’s and Aon.
Litigation financing and sophisticated plaintiff-generation practices are driving explosive growth in mass tort cases, according to the report. The transformation of casualty risk mirrors the evolution seen in the property catastrophe market decades earlier, but with distinctly modern characteristics.
Between 2014 and 2022, the U.S. market witnessed two to three new mass litigation episodes annually, encompassing risks from per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination and glyphosate-based herbicides to talc, opioids, and emerging concerns like hair relaxers and social media addiction, according to the report. Each mass litigation event carries the potential for billion-dollar losses, with historical precedents offering sobering context—asbestos litigation alone has generated nearly $100 billion in losses, the report noted.
These long-tail risks threaten the stability of insurers’ reserves and challenge traditional actuarial models that rely on historical benchmarks, the report said.
Market Volatility Creates Both Peril and Promise
Casualty events have generated two of the three largest casualty losses in history through asbestos and environmental litigation, the report noted. When considering single-year adverse loss development as catastrophic events, six out of the 13 largest loss events in the U.S. property and casualty industry have been casualty-related.
This volatility manifests in three critical areas, according to the report:
- First, increased reserve volatility emerges as casualty catastrophes show greater latency than traditional claims, driven by novel legal arguments and evolving science. When exposure to emerging risks increases, reserves based on historical claims frequently underestimate duration, necessitating restatements and creating cyclical reserving crises.
- Second, correlation and systemic risk amplify the challenge. A single mass tort event, such as widespread PFAS liabilities, can impact multiple companies and insurance lines simultaneously. This correlation makes maintaining predictable financial outcomes increasingly difficult for insurers managing diversified portfolios, the report noted.
- Third, traditional tort reform solutions prove inadequate. While damage caps and class action limitations historically provided temporary relief, plaintiffs have adapted through multi-district litigation, public nuisance theories, and strategic litigation financing.
Strategic Positioning for a Structured Market Evolution
The casualty catastrophe market stands poised for fundamental transformation, requiring advanced analytics, AI-enabled modeling, and innovative risk-transfer mechanisms to address emerging liability risks, the report’s authors said.
“The casualty catastrophe sector has reached an inflection point, where a structured, scalable market is rapidly emerging,” said Amanda Lyons, global product leader at Aon Reinsurance Solutions. “We are encouraging reinsurers and other capital providers to allocate capacity to these risks and help drive the development of innovative products.”
“We operate in an industry built on an ability to assess and manage risk. Through advanced analytics, AI-enabled casualty catastrophe modeling, and targeted named peril reinsurance products, we are converting emerging casualty exposures into tangible opportunities for re/insurers,” said Joe Melly, managing director, casualty and financial lines at Moody’s.
View the report here. &