As Construction Booms, Insurers Draw Sharper Lines Between Good Risks and Bad
Global construction activity is expected to grow from roughly $16 trillion in 2025 to nearly $22 trillion by 2030, fueled by data center buildouts, energy transition investments and resilient infrastructure demand, the report found.
That growth is reshaping insurance needs across property, professional liability, casualty and surety lines, but not uniformly. Market conditions vary sharply by region, project type and risk class, with insurers competing aggressively for loss-free, well-managed accounts while applying stricter scrutiny to riskier segments, according to Aon.
Property Insurance: Catastrophe Exposure the Defining Variable
Construction property markets have stabilized broadly following a relatively mild 2025 catastrophe year, but natural catastrophe exposure continues to set the terms for coverage availability and pricing in high-hazard regions, the report said.
Total economic losses from natural disasters reached approximately $260 billion in 2025, with nearly 55% occurring in the U.S., the report said. Severe convective storms and wildfires were the dominant loss drivers domestically, while Europe contended with major summer storm outbreaks and the Asia-Pacific region absorbed earthquake, flooding and tropical cyclone impacts.
In the U.S., capacity and pricing remain relatively flat for named windstorms, floods and earthquakes in most areas, though wildfire and convective storm risks in high-hazard zones are prompting insurers to tighten limits and push deductibles higher, including percentage-of-value-at-risk-at-time-of-loss structures.
Water damage remains the leading attritional loss driver for standard building construction. Most insurers prefer quota-share participation, with individual lines typically capped at 35% on projects valued above $100 million, the report noted.
Data center construction — where project values have grown significantly and dedicated power-generation facilities are increasingly common — represents a particularly active growth segment. The report cited projections of $3 trillion in global data center spending through 2030, with small modular reactors emerging as a consideration for on-site power needs.
Casualty and Professional Liability: Severity Pressures Mount
The U.S. construction casualty market is increasingly bifurcated, the report said. Auto liability and auto physical damage rates are expected to continue rising as insurers struggle with profitability, with the most challenging accounts concentrated in California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana and Texas. General liability conditions remain relatively stable for most commercial nonresidential construction, though heavy civil work, residential construction and contractors with significant wildfire exposure face harder conditions.
Nuclear and thermonuclear verdicts — settlements and verdicts exceeding $10 million and $100 million, respectively — are reducing net deployed capacity in excess liability markets. Insurers that previously offered $25 million tranches in intermediate to high excess layers are pulling back, and lead excess limits on large civil projects have fallen to a maximum of roughly $5 million today, down from an average of $8 million to $10 million one to two years ago, according to the report.
In professional liability, claims severity is the central pressure point across markets, Aon said. Monetary inflation, social inflation, defense cost inflation and large verdicts are driving loss costs higher, the report said, and insurers are responding with upward pressure on retentions, particularly for loss-affected accounts and mega projects.
Project-specific professional liability coverage remains available but costly, with premiums on mega projects hovering between 40% and 50% of the primary layer limit and minimum retentions of $1 million or more commonly required.
Surety: Steady Growth, Rising Mid-Market Stress
The global surety market is projected to grow at approximately 5% annually, potentially reaching $33 billion by 2032, according to the report. North America remains the largest and most mature market for surety, supported by heavy civil infrastructure projects, data center construction and continued government spending on transportation and water systems.
However, 2025 saw credit deterioration in the mid-market construction space, resulting in higher supplier nonpayments, performance defaults and insolvencies, the report said. Surety loss ratios have been rising and are expected to continue climbing through 2026. The renewables sector faces additional headwinds from regulatory and legal changes affecting project viability.
Capacity overall remains adequate, though aggregate bonding limits are becoming a growing focus as mega project backlogs accumulate among the largest global contractors.
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