2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Foreign Economic Nationalism

Economic nationalism is upsetting the risk management landscape by presenting challenges in once stable environments.
By: | April 7, 2017 • 8 min read

Economic nationalism not only has an impact domestically but presents significant risks for the global economy as well.

Political risk research firm The Eurasia Group cites “independent America” as a top risk for global stability and warns that 2017 will see a “geopolitical recession” that marks “the most volatile political environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008.”

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Add to that the way other nations are turning inward and sealing their own borders in response to stalled economies, a surge in refugees or a shift in the way terror attacks are carried out by individuals, often inspired by social media.

In Europe, Britain voted to withdraw from the European Union, a.k.a. “Brexit.” In South America, Venezuela closed its borders with Brazil and Colombia.

All of this inward focus has the potential to create what the Eurasia Group calls a “G-Zero world” — a world with no global leader.

With no clear political leader, there’s also no unifying voice on security, trade or social values. There’s no coordinated response on climate change, capital flows or the internet.

With no superpower setting the agenda and global uncertainty about rising economic nationalism, the world order could fall into disarray.

“The established norms of the past 50 years quickly eroded,” said Dan Riordan, president of political risk, credit and bond insurance at XL Catlin.

“It didn’t start last week. It started over a period of time but we’re definitely reaching a different dynamic and that’s creating a lot of uncertainty,” he said.

Governments adopting nationalistic economic policies may renege on foreigners’ contracts, leaving businesses to foot the bill or renegotiate deals.

Some countries, such as Venezuela, have already seized property from foreign-owned businesses, namely natural resources such as oil, in the name of “the people.”

Global institutions may lose clout or be victimized by political retaliation.

The ripples of economic nationalism are creating worldwide uncertainty. Along with that comes emerging economic and political risks that may defy traditional forecasts and that may happen at a rapid-fire pace never before faced by risk managers.

“So many of the tools the risk manager is using today are mostly useless because of the complexity we have right now,” said Dante A. Disparte, founder and CEO of Risk Cooperative.

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Disparte attributes the global rise in economic nationalism to several factors. There’s greater global income inequality; a growing dependency on individual commodities for government revenues; too many countries hitching their economic fortunes to China; and oil-producing countries that work outside proscribed multilateral agreements, he said.

“Broadly speaking, multinational corporations find it hard to cope with this kind of rise of economic nationalism,” Disparte said.

Multinational systems, such as the World Bank and World Trade Organization, have been sources of stability in the world. If individual nations shun these global systems to work directly with some countries while leaving others out, there may be a rise of tit-for-tat reprisals, Disparte said.

It could lead to increasing political incidents and international investors being harmed as a way of sending a signal to those policymakers, he said.

Dante A. Disparte, founder and CEO, Risk Cooperative

“Don’t be surprised if the consequences become much more severe,” he said.

Trade embargoes, the expropriation of assets, freezing accounts — these tools that the U.S. and Europe keep in their arsenals when trying to send a signal to another country — can be sent back in a return volley. Companies will be the ones that will pay the most direct price, as will consumers and society, Disparte said.

Political Violence

The paradigm shift from globalization to nationalism is creating a lot of uncertainty, as well as growing concern about currency risk and political violence that can lead to targeting assets in certain countries, Riordan said.

A country looking to send a message to the U.S. might be more likely to target an Exxon oil rig than disrupt sales of Proctor & Gamble shampoo products because of the impact it can have back in the home country.

“Companies trade with each other, countries do not.” Disparte said. “It’s McDonalds, BMW, Boeing; these are the companies that are trading with the world.”

The country is merely the platform where the trade is occurring. In an era of protectionism and trade barriers, and potential risk of expropriation and nationalization of assets, businesses face significant risk, Disparte said.

Those companies with an iconic brand attached to a certain country or nationality can be targeted for political reasons, Riordan said.

“I’m a firm believer myself that trade among countries usually leads to peace,” XL Catlin’s Riordan said.

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“Risk-prone industries really need to carefully weigh their posture and the posture of their home country. They become an extension of the United States or an extension of England, which under this new political era is going to effectively anger a lot more people on the planet.

“I recommend companies start thinking about the concept of corporate activism. Not all these risks can be insured or hedged through traditional means.

“They need to prove to the market and to their customers that they can be trustworthy counterparts. The market will be more lenient to these types of firms.”

One insurer, AIG, revised one of its products to address the growing potential global threats corporations face. Late last year, AIG raised its property terrorism insurance limits globally to $1 billion from $250 million in many larger cities, typically those classified as Tier 1 terrorism risks.

The larger capacity is available to clients on a stand-alone basis or as expanded limits within AIG’s large limits property insurance offering, which provides clients with all-risk coverage limits up to $2.5 billion per occurrence.

“Risk managers need to ask the question, ‘What are we going to do if this area that we are counting on is no longer politically stable for one reason or the other?’ ” said Louis Gritzo, vice president and manager of research at FM Global.

“The big thing is just uncertainty,” Gritzo said, “The level of uncertainty is higher than it’s ever been.”

Hypothesizing about what will happen or why will never get an exact answer. But be prepared, so if you have to pull operations out of one country or find an alternative supplier, you are not starting from ground zero, Gritzo said.

Risk managers may need to ask “what if” questions that probably a few years ago they were not asking, even about some developed countries that may not have been a risk in the recent past.

To begin with, companies need to take basic assessments of their international operations and partners, and political risk insurance products.

When Steven Minsky, CEO of LogicManager, was working on a risk assessment with a client operating in 15 different countries, he noticed the company focused mainly on the countries that contributed the most revenue.

Don’t focus on the risk facing any individual country, Minsky said. Instead, look at what the likely risks are across regions and then focus on how big an impact those aggregated risks can have on your business.

“Some small-dollar countries can cause huge scandals,” Minsky said.

Dan Riordan, president of political risk, credit and bond insurance, XL Catlin

“One giant mistake is to say, ‘I’ll write this country off because they aren’t main revenue drivers.’ That is going to bite the company big time because it’s an unmanaged risk.”

XL Catlin’s Riordan recommends clients assess their local partners overseas, whether it’s a supplier, exporter, importer, investor or joint venture partner.

Business must have a good local partner that is politically and commercially adept, he said.

Assess all joint venture arrangements, whether that’s trading, investing or supplier relationships and what laws protect those agreements. Know the provisions for dispute resolutions, such as arbitration in an international setting, rather than going to a local court where you may not be treated fairly.

Stay up to date on the changing political climate. There’s a lot of information available and much of it is free, said Riordan.

For example, most U.S. embassies around the globe have a Foreign Commercial Service and those tend to be good sources of information on local partners and local business practices.

The Commercial Service mission is to promote the export of goods and services of American companies and develop and protect U.S. business interests abroad.

Also connect with international bankers, accounting firms and insurers to obtain in-depth analysis and risk assessment on each country’s political and socioeconomic risks.

Creating Opportunity

Several risk experts agree that the emerging global uncertainty can also create a lot of opportunity for international corporations with a well-prepared risk management team.

During periods of intense uncertainty, when most of the market is paralyzed, it is an enormous once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to leap ahead, Disparte of Risk Cooperative said, “as counterintuitive as it might seem.”

“There’s an opportunity in this uncertainty,” he said. “I think there’s a big chance for organizations to spring forward.”

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Minsky of LogicManager sees a general overreaction to the political climate right now, and he cautions that emotion may blindside people to the real issues.

“You can look at this as a really hot issue right now, or take a step back and say that this is part of the landscape of the international arena,” he said. Enterprise risk management helps take that subjectivity and emotion out of the risk scenario.

“You can still be personally concerned about it, there’s nothing wrong with that. But when you are thinking about it from the company standpoint, there’s still positives in this,” he said.

“Risk management enables companies to react to change and uncertainty faster than competitors, which can push a business forward.

“This is an opportunity to gain new sales and market share,” Minsky said. “That is a massive competitive advantage.”

For risk managers, weathering the changes requires “going back to basics,” Riordan said.

“There will be challenges for companies that relied on international norms of trade and investment, and organizations built to protect them like the World Trade Organization and World Bank.”

He said companies should examine the changing environment from an ERM standpoint to examine how it changes their risk appetites.

Ultimately, he said, “if they regularly are assessing their risks, they can still be successful.”

“It’s a fascinating period,” Riordan said. “It’s not Armageddon, but it is changing.” &

________________________________________________________________

2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Artificial Intelligence Ties Liability in Knots

The same technologies that drive business forward are upending the nature of loss exposures and presenting new coverage challenges.

 

 

Cyber Business Interruption

Attacks on internet infrastructure begin, leaving unknown risks for insureds and insurers alike.

 

 

U.S. Economic Nationalism

Nationalistic policies aim to boost American wealth and prosperity, but they may do long-term economic damage.

 

 

Coastal Mortgage Value Collapse

As climate change drives rising seas, so arises the risk that buyers will become leery of taking on mortgages along our coasts.  Trillions in mortgage values are at stake unless the public and the private sector move quickly.

Juliann Walsh is a staff writer at Risk & Insurance. She can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Insurance Executive

A Leader for Turbulent Times

Lloyd’s CEO Inga Beale is tasked with guiding the venerable insurance market through Brexit and the demands of the fiercely competitive global specialty business.
By: | July 6, 2017 • 12 min read

Underwriters at Lloyd’s are accustomed to taking on complex, even daunting, risks. The company’s leader looks at the world today and sees plenty of opportunity, but also much to be concerned about.

“Political instability is something that troubles me more than anything else because I think there is now more uncertainty across the world than there has ever been,” said Inga Beale, CEO of Lloyd’s of London.

“It feels that all of the norms that I grew up with are being challenged — openness, globalization, acceptance, inclusion — on a global scale.”

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Appropriately, we’re sitting around a table in Beale’s modern glass-fronted office at the top of the Lloyd’s Building — itself a vision from the future — to talk about Brexit and Lloyd’s newly announced Brussels subsidiary.

Add to the mix Donald Trump and the threat of nuclear attack from North Korea, the bombing of Syria and a spate of terrorist attacks across Europe, and it’s clear we are living in the most dangerous period certainly since the Cold War, or possibly ever, believes Beale.

That belief received even more chilling reinforcement when terrorists detonated a bomb at an Ariana Grande performance in Manchester, England on May 22.  Twenty two people, some of them children, were killed and more than 50 wounded in that attack.

Three years ago, it was Beale herself making world headlines with her appointment as the first female CEO in Lloyd’s 329-year history. But now Brexit and other seismic disruptions to world order have taken center stage.

Lloyd’s announced at the end of March that it would establish a new European subsidiary in Brussels in time for January 1, 2019 renewals so it can continue writing risks for all 27 European Union (EU) and three European Economic Area states after the UK exits the EU.

Currently, it uses its passporting rights to serve EU customers from London, but the expected loss of those rights after Brexit necessitated the establishment of a new subsidiary.

For now though, it’s business as usual, said Beale, with the UK remaining a full EU member for at least two more years. She added, with a reassuring smile, that there will be no immediate impact on existing policies, renewals or new policies written during that time.

“We were campaigning very much to remain in the EU before the referendum because we knew what the likely impact [of leaving the EU] would be on Lloyd’s,” said Beale, whose impressive resume includes stints with GE Insurance Solutions, Zurich and Canopius.

“We rely very much on our licensing network, and being part of the EU means that from London we can write insurance and reinsurance for all of the EU countries with our passporting authority.

“But with the UK exiting the EU, it now means that we lose those licensing powers to offer insurance with immediate effect. To counteract this, we have determined to set up a subsidiary within the EU, meaning that about five percent of our global revenues will have to go through this subsidiary because it is insurance business offered to our EU-based clients.”

Beale and her team also negotiated that most of Lloyd’s underwriting business will remain in London, as will the majority of the transactions and decision-making powers. Meanwhile, the manpower needed to run the new Brussels operation will be in the “tens rather than hundreds,” she is quick to point out.

“It’s not a huge raft of people having to move over,” she said.

“Lloyd’s will continue to do 95 percent of its business as it has always done — it’s only the other five percent that will have to go through a separate legal entity, and we’re not anticipating any further changes to our business model as a result.”

Beale, whose dual role is both supervisor and advocate for the market’s 100-something member underwriting syndicates, says that the franchise board chose Brussels over other locations including Luxembourg, Dublin and Malta because of its “robust and quality” regulatory regime.

“At the time, I didn’t even know that reinsurance existed, but once I discovered it I absolutely loved it.” — Inga Beale, CEO, Lloyd’s of London

It also provides access to a multilingual talent pool, is near to London, and, most importantly she stresses, is located in a member state with a “very high certainty of staying in the EU.”

“We want people who reflect our customers,” she said.

“The London insurance market is littered with people from all over the world because London is such a global insurance hub, so we need experts here who speak the language and understand the different cultures.”

North American Footprint

Despite its large European market, it’s the other side of the pond where Lloyd’s really thrives. Approximately 46 percent of its business comes from the U.S., mainly California earthquake and East Coast hurricane risks, she said.

Lloyd’s also remains the No.1 excess and surplus lines insurer in the U.S. and the largest non-U.S. domiciled insurer, she added.

“We have done really well in terms of growing our E&S market share over there,” she said.

“That’s our sweet spot; those non-standard risks that are hard to place.”

By contrast, Beale said that reinsurance has become a much more competitive market with new entrants offering alternative types of reinsurance putting a squeeze on prices. As a consequence, Lloyd’s has focused more on insurance, she said.

“We have also done well in Canada and with our delegated authority through our Managing General Underwriters and Managing General Agents,” she said.

“It’s this very local and specialist distribution channel that has been our success story across North America.”

In January, Beale was made a Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire — the female equivalent of being knighted — and is also the Association of Professional Insurance Women’s Insurance Woman of the Year for 2017.

“What concerns us most is not individual risks such as earthquakes and hurricanes, but rather assessing the aggregation of our exposures to financial and liability-type risks with no geographical boundaries.” — Inga Beale, CEO, Lloyd’s of London

As the person directing Lloyd’s, she is also acutely aware of the shift in power towards emerging economies, with McKinsey recently reporting that 67 percent of commercial insurance growth will come from those markets by 2020.

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In response, Lloyd’s has focused its efforts on Asia and Latin America, transferring more than half of its managing agents to its Shanghai and Beijing platforms; and it was recently granted final approval to open a reinsurance office in Mumbai, she said.

“That’s where the future’s going to be,” she said.

“We know that a lot of the business is no longer coming to London in the traditional way, hence we have set up a Singapore platform and platforms in China, and opened up an office in Dubai as well as in India to be closer to our clients and brokers there.”

Lloyd’s profits last year were flat at $2.7 billion, while GWP was up $3.9 billion.

The market made a profit despite taking a $2.7 billion hit for major claims — the fifth highest such total since the turn of the century — primarily due to Hurricane Matthew and the Fort McMurray Wildfire in Canada.

Although natural disasters are Lloyd’s bread and butter, its real strength is in insuring complex risks, from cargo ships and satellites to political and terrorism risks.

Lloyd’s Role in Cyber

It’s the aggregation of those harder-to-quantify risks such as cyber security that concerns Beale most. Expected to grow to $7.5 billion in global premiums business by 2020, cyber is a big focus for Lloyd’s. It has a 25 percent market share and aggregate limits of approximately $650 million per risk, she said.

“What concerns us most is not individual risks such as earthquakes and hurricanes, but rather assessing the aggregation of our exposures to financial and liability-type risks with no geographical boundaries,” she said.

“We saw that with the financial crisis and the collapse of Fanny and Freddie, and its impact on Greece, but now it’s cyber.

“We have interviewed numerous risk managers and they are telling us that they are only insured against less than 10 percent of the risks that their businesses face on a daily basis. Our challenge is to make sure that we are continuing to adapt as fast as their businesses do and that we are delivering the relevant products that they need.”

Another area where Lloyd’s has seen an uptick is political and terrorism risk, said Beale.

The U.S. standoff with North Korea, Brexit and a swath of ISIS terrorist attacks across Europe have only exacerbated the problem, heightening fears among those countries’ citizens and tearing whole communities apart.

“We would love to get to a stage where a client can track something being quoted or a claim being paid, just like you do with a package being delivered [to your home].” — Inga Beale, CEO, Lloyd’s of London

Just witness the anguish of the victims and families in the Manchester concert bombing.

“We have seen a dramatic increase in demand for these types of products because of the political instability everywhere at the moment, particularly for companies that are trading cross border with countries where governments can suddenly intervene at a moment’s notice,” she said.

“Similarly, businesses are looking to protect themselves against the ever-growing threat of terrorism, which is where Lloyd’s can step in to give them the confidence to keep on trading.”

Reforming Lloyd’s

Within Lloyd’s itself, Beale has been at the forefront of trying to modernize the aging institution. Despite its modern metallic and glass exterior, inside Lloyd’s there’s still very much what some might term a stuffy “old boys’ club” culture.

Men are required to wear a tie and women weren’t allowed into the underwriting room until 1972. Brokers still walk around with leather slipcases crammed full of paper.

The Lloyd’s headquarters on Lime Street.

Beale’s predecessor, Richard Ward, tried to modernize Lloyd’s but left plenty for Beale to address in that respect.

Beale committed $700 million over the next five years to upgrade Lloyd’s aging computer and IT systems, with the end goal of achieving one-touch data capture to speed up the premiums and claims process.

“It’s about following that data all the way through the process from the client to the intermediary and the underwriter, and the processing of the premiums and claims,” she said.

“We would love to get to a stage where a client can track something being quoted or a claim being paid, just like you do with a package being delivered [to your home].”

Another area Beale is keen to shake up is diversity within Lloyd’s itself. Currently the market is two-thirds male, while only 11 percent of the whole London insurance market are non-UK nationals — a damning statistic that Beale is all too aware of.

“The Lloyd’s market doesn’t reflect the demographics of the whole of London and we are very conscious that we’re not tapping into all of the available talent that’s out there,” she said.

“We need to cut out the old ideas, try to challenge the unconscious bias and create an environment that is welcoming for people who are a bit different.”

Beale has also been pushing the [email protected] initiative, currently in its third year, and in September Lloyd’s will host the third annual Dive In festival to promote diversity and inclusion in the insurance industry.

In addition, 95 percent of the Lloyd’s market has already signed up to its Diversity & Inclusion charter to improve diversity, she said.

“To attract the best talent we need to modernize and look at how we can change our working practices and hiring decisions for the better,” she said.

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“There’s a vast amount of work that we are actively doing to encourage people to be more open and seek more diverse talent.”

On a personal level, Beale readily admits that she was late to the leadership game, and it was only her mentor, Annette Sadolin at GE, who convinced her to take her first promotion.

That lack of confidence is something that, as a leader, Beale has witnessed in her own team and she is keen to help overcome.

“Annette became very much a mentor for me throughout my career, so whenever I have had to make key decisions I would always ask her view,” she said.

“The key lesson that I have learnt from her is that things move so quickly and you need to take opportunities when they come along that give you exposure to something new, even if they don’t seem like a natural career path at the time.

“For me, being a leader is all about inclusion and being passionate about the people you work with because you need to inspire and motivate them. But there is also nothing more rewarding than watching people progress their careers.”

A Truly Global Journey

Beale, who initially harbored ambitions of being an architect, admits that she “fell into reinsurance,” starting as a trainee international treaty reinsurance underwriter at Prudential Assurance Company in London in 1982. But once she had a taste there was no turning back.

“At the time, I didn’t even know that reinsurance existed, but once I discovered it I absolutely loved it,” she said.

“I fell in love with the global nature of the risks that came to London; one day you could be looking at a piece of business from Chile, the next from Australia.”

But, back then, working in a male-dominated industry where she was the only woman among 35 men, Beale struggled to fit in. So she quit and went travelling for 10 months.

It was during her time as a receptionist at the BBC in Sydney, Australia that Beale worked under her first female boss, a formidable woman, she said.

Inspired by her boss’s strong work ethic, Beale decided to return to the insurance business.

She soon landed a job with GE Insurance Solutions in Kansas City, where she held various underwriting management roles, before being appointed president of GE Frankona and head of continental Europe, Middle East and Africa for GE Insurance Solutions in Germany.

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After 14 years at GE, Beale moved to Switzerland with Converium as group CEO in 2006.

Two years later, she joined Zurich Insurance Group as a member of the group management board in Zurich before being appointed global chief underwriting officer, prior to her appointment as group CEO at Canopius in 2012.

The breadth and depth of her experience makes Beale a natural fit for the demands of the Lloyd’s top job.

There’s no doubt she’ll be drawing upon every ounce of that expertise and experience to keep Lloyd’s at the cutting edge of this harrowing new world we live in.

Alex Wright is a U.K.-based business journalist, who previously was deputy business editor at The Royal Gazette in Bermuda. You can reach him at [email protected]