2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Cyber Business Interruption

Attacks on internet infrastructure commence, leaving unknown risks for insureds and insurers alike.
By: | April 7, 2017 • 8 min read

There are more than a billion websites on the internet but they rely on just a handful of companies to keep them operating.

Confidence in the system’s resilience declined significantly in October 2016, when a massive distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack assaulted Dyn, a company that controls much of the internet infrastructure.

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That DDoS attack, in turn, brought down major sites including Netflix, CNN, Spotify, Airbnb, Twitter and many others in Europe and the U.S.

“At this point we know this was a sophisticated, highly distributed attack involving tens of millions of IP addresses … across multiple attack vectors and internet locations,” said Kyle York, Dyn’s chief strategy officer on Oct. 21.

The attacks originated from Mirai-based botnets via internet-connected DVRs, video cameras and devices. Those attacks substantially disrupted service at the managed DNS (domain name system) infrastructure for about two hours from about 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. GMT, and again from about 4 to 5 p.m. GMT, with residual impact until about 8:30 p.m. on Oct. 21.

Then, to add more uncertainty, came the outages on Feb. 28 connected to Amazon Web Services. Although this was due to human error — apparently a coding error — rather than maliciousness, the result was the same: Companies, large and small, including Netflix, Airbnb, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Expedia, became inaccessible or their sites ran like molasses.

The problem, affecting mostly the East Coast, lasted from about 12:30 p.m. to about 4 p.m. ET.

“I definitely think [internet outages] will continue to happen,” said Nick Economidis, underwriter at Beazley. “I think there are some unknown risks out there.

“We are dealing with new exposures and new risks that we don’t have the background for, and I think there are going to be some surprises. … I think Dyn caught a lot of people’s attention.”

Dan Burke, vice president and cyber product head at Hiscox USA, agreed.

Fred Eslami, senior financial analyst, property and casualty, A.M. Best

“I think this is an attack vector we will continue to see for the foreseeable future, based on the ease in which one can initiate such attacks. … Just the sheer volume of devices that can be compromised and used to launch these attacks — there are such economies of scale in this space that we will continue to see this happen,” he said.

Such broad internet outages affect insureds and insurers alike, and the potential downside could be devastating.

For insureds, it’s the concern that their losses, which could last for months after an outage, will not trigger coverage in their policies. For insurers, it’s the fear of a catastrophic accumulation of cyber exposures.

Low Limits or Lack of Coverage

Steve Bridges, senior vice president of cyber risk and E&O, JLT Specialty USA, said that for many companies, a business interruption loss due to an outage at a cloud partner or ISP would only be covered if caused by a security failure and then only with a sublimit under most cyber policies.

The reason? Fear of risk aggregation, he said. “[Insurers] could have a catastrophic loss across industries and a bunch of different policies,” Bridges said.

“The cyber insurance marketplace is starting to extend contingent/dependent business interruption to include system failure triggers and to offer higher limits, but is wary about the impact of these aggregate loss situations,” he said.

For companies that offer significant CBI coverage, an extended cyber event affecting an ISP or cloud provider could result in them paying huge claims to their insureds resulting from an event affecting a company they didn’t underwrite or insure, Bridges said.

And with the lack of standardization of cyber policies, many insureds are uncertain if they even have coverage.

Plus, insurers have limited experience adjusting cyber BI or CBI claims. There haven’t been that many, and adjusting them is quite different than data breach or privacy claims that have become more common.

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There is a lot of skepticism that companies will be able to successfully resolve a cyber BI or CBI claim should they face a cyber-related disruption, said Adam Thomas, principal with Deloitte’s cyber risk services team, and co-author of “Demystifying Cyber Insurance Coverage.”

“Many insurers have tunnel vision when it comes to writing cyber policies, focusing primarily on marketing cyber products for personally identifiable data hacks and business disruption while not offering insurance for the many other cyber risks that companies face,” the report said.

While some insurers and brokers have worked with insureds to help them understand where exposures exist, Thomas said, uncertainty — primarily due to lack of good data — is common.

He noted that coverage is often ultimately decided by court decisions and there is not yet definitive case law relating to this type of claim.

Burke at Hiscox said that CBI coverage is traditionally found in the policies of larger insureds and is making its way down market to smaller insureds. Some policies may offer sublimited coverage for all service providers, while others may provide coverage only for providers specifically named by the insured.

Regardless, “it has been difficult to prove” a BI or CBI loss, he said.

Often, coverage is not triggered until a designated waiting period, typically eight to 12 hours. Plus, it is difficult even in a property-related BI claim to quantify losses during the event or time of restoration, let alone a cyber BI claim. It requires the expertise of a forensic accountant.

“Because Dyn was down only three hours [during the second attack of the day], there was very little insurance loss,” said Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, although the economic loss was more than $100 million.

“If Dyn had been down for a day, it would not only result in billions in economic loss, but in significant insurance losses,” he said.

Companies face additional insurance issues if their websites don’t soon regain profitability.

Linking the recovery of lost revenue after the site comes back online is a challenge. There are other factors that could explain relatively poor performance, said JLT’s Bridges.

Typically, policies provide 60 to 90 days as the period of restoration, but for some companies, it can arguably be much longer before their customers return and revenue returns to expected levels.

Bigger companies that use cloud services from providers such as Amazon, Google, Rackspace, IBM or Microsoft, may have some leverage to contractually negotiate responsibility for losses over a certain amount, Bridges said. Small companies, not so much.

Risk Aggregation Fears

“I’m not getting a feeling that insurance companies themselves have a good idea of how to aggregate these [cyber] exposures,” said Fred Eslami, senior financial analyst, property and casualty, A.M. Best.

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“It is scary,” he said, noting that when Dyn was attacked, about 70 companies were affected, with service lost for several hours on different occasions in a 24-hour period.

“I’ve been trying to get information on what the damage was, particularly in terms of business interruption,” he said.

“There is no information right now. I hear companies are working on it since October. But it’s apparently a challenging task to come up with an idea of what the damage was.”

Imagine, he said, if the attack lasted 24 hours and affected hundreds of companies. Insurance companies have “no actuarial or results-oriented data they can depend on to do their proper pricing or proper reserving.”

They may face claims from cyber policies as well as general liability, D&O, E&O or policy packages.

A comparable example might be Hurricane Andrew, which struck Florida and Louisiana in 1992 and drove 12 insurance companies out of business, AIR’s Stransky said.

Although many insurers are working to solve the risk aggregation issue, they remain uncertain what percentage of their book uses specific ISPs or cloud providers, he said, and there’s no easy way to determine that.

Adam Thomas, principal, cyber risk services team, Deloitte

Thomas at Deloitte said accumulated risk “is an area that’s been a hot issue for senior management at most insurers. There is a general level of discomfort over how well — or not well — they understand where the cyber-accumulated risk sits.”

“Some insurers may fear being overwhelmed by a sudden aggregation of losses in which a third-party provider or cloud computing vendor that works with a wide swath of businesses gets hacked and leads to service failures for all of its users,” according to Deloitte’s report on demystifying coverage.

“This sort of systemic event could spell chaos for the insurance industry,” it said.

“Insurers should consider implementing more rigorous underwriting policies to start minimizing aggregation risk.”

“The exposure [for insurers],” said Burke at Hiscox, “can aggregate so quickly and be so massive that I think it has the potential to put insurance company balance sheets at risk.”

Some companies, like AIR Worldwide and RMS, are creating models to help insurers understand their exposure.

Stransky said the AIR model analyzes an insurance company’s portfolio to look at the aggregation risk, using specific company policy inclusions and exclusions.

Burke said Hiscox creates its own scenarios and models them with the help of third-party providers.

Lloyd’s issued an oversight framework two years ago that requires all syndicates, including Hiscox and Beazley, to have a “specific risk appetite for exposure to cyber attack across all classes of business.”

Recently, the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) released cyber security requirements for all companies that operate in the state that are governed by the DFS. Among other rules, it requires companies to demonstrate the ability to recover from a cyber event and restore normal operations and services.

Eslami at A.M. Best said the regulation may help to improve the resiliency of insurers to a cyber attack. He noted that the National Association of Insurance Commissioners also requires companies to provide similar information.

It all depends on the elements of coverage, however. “Policy language is not generalized and cannot be applied the same way to all of the companies,” Eslami said.

He said insurance companies that issue cyber policies may want to consider limiting their exposure per industry sector to a certain dollar amount to give them a better handle on potential losses — and their ability to cover those losses.

We are dealing with new exposures and new risks that we don’t have the background for, and I think there are going to be some surprises. … I think Dyn caught a lot of people’s attention.– Nick Economidis, underwriter at Beazley

A.M. Best, he said, has suggested insurers model potential incurred-but-not-reported losses, and put aside a contingency reserve in response.

Right now, a huge natural catastrophe still has a greater potential to impact company solvency, he said. That could change as the frequency and manner of attacks increase, combined with the growth of cyber coverage and the Internet of Things.

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“There is a 100 percent chance we will see something worse than Dyn,” Stransky said. “There’s no way to avoid it.

“In some ways, it’s good it happened,” he said.

“It was a great wake-up call. It got people thinking. It’s a good thing if they are nervous about this. It’s better to be nervous now than scrambling around when a big attack happens as they try to figure out what is going on.

“If they are more prepared, they will be more resilient when something happens.” &

________________________________________________________________

2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Artificial Intelligence Ties Liability in Knots

The same technologies that drive business forward are upending the nature of loss exposures and presenting new coverage challenges.

 

U.S. Economic Nationalism

Nationalistic policies aim to boost American wealth and prosperity, but they may do long-term economic damage.

 

 

Foreign Economic Nationalism

Economic nationalism is upsetting the risk management landscape by presenting challenges in once stable environments.

 

 

Coastal Mortgage Value Collapse

As climate change drives rising seas, so arises the risk that buyers will become leery of taking on mortgages along our coasts.  Trillions in mortgage values are at stake unless the public and the private sector move quickly.

Anne Freedman is managing editor of Risk & Insurance. She can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Property

Insurers Take to the Skies

This year’s hurricane season sees the use of drones and other aerial intelligence gathering systems as insurers seek to estimate claims costs.
By: | November 1, 2017 • 6 min read

For Southern communities, current recovery efforts in the wake of Hurricane Harvey will recall the painful devastation of 2005, when Katrina and Wilma struck. But those who look skyward will notice one conspicuous difference this time around: drones.

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Much has changed since Katrina and Wilma, both economically and technologically. The insurance industry evolved as well. Drones and other visual intelligence systems (VIS) are set to play an increasing role in loss assessment, claims handling and underwriting.

Farmers Insurance, which announced in August it launched a fleet of drones to enhance weather-related property damage claim assessment, confirmed it deployed its fleet in the aftermath of Harvey.

“The pent-up demand for drones, particularly from a claims-processing standpoint, has been accumulating for almost two years now,” said George Mathew, CEO of Kespry, Farmers’ drone and aerial intelligence platform provider partner.

“The current wind and hail damage season that we are entering is when many of the insurance carriers are switching from proof of concept work to full production rollout.”

 According to Mathew, Farmers’ fleet focused on wind damage in and around Corpus Christi, Texas, at the time of this writing. “Additional work is already underway in the greater Houston area and will expand in the coming weeks and months,” he added.

No doubt other carriers have fleets in the air. AIG, for example, occupied the forefront of VIS since winning its drone operation license in 2015. It deployed drones to inspections sites in the U.S. and abroad, including stadiums, hotels, office buildings, private homes, construction sites and energy plants.

Claims Response

At present, insurers are primarily using VIS for CAT loss assessment. After a catastrophe, access is often prohibited or impossible. Drones allow access for assessing damage over potentially vast areas in a more cost-effective and time-sensitive manner than sending human inspectors with clipboards and cameras.

“Drones improve risk analysis by providing a more efficient alternative to capturing aerial photos from a sky-view. They allow insurers to rapidly assess the scope of damages and provide access that may not otherwise be available,” explained Chris Luck, national practice leader of Advocacy at JLT Specialty USA.

“The pent-up demand for drones, particularly from a claims-processing standpoint, has been accumulating for almost two years now.” — George Mathew, CEO, Kespry

“In our experience, competitive advantage is gained mostly by claims departments and third-party administrators. Having the capability to provide exact measurements and details from photos taken by drones allows insurers to expedite the claim processing time,” he added.

Indeed, as tech becomes more disruptive, insurers will increasingly seek to take advantage of VIS technologies to help them provide faster, more accurate and more efficient insurance solutions.

Duncan Ellis, U.S. property practice leader, Marsh

One way Farmers is differentiating its drone program is by employing its own FAA-licensed drone operators, who are also Farmers-trained claim representatives.

Keith Daly, E.V.P. and chief claims officer for Farmers Insurance, said when launching the program that this sets Farmers apart from most carriers, who typically engage third-party drone pilots to conduct evaluations.

“In the end, it’s all about the experience for the policyholder who has their claim adjudicated in the most expeditious manner possible,” said Mathew.

“The technology should simply work and just melt away into the background. That’s why we don’t just focus on building an industrial-grade drone, but a complete aerial intelligence platform for — in this case — claims management.”

Insurance Applications

Duncan Ellis, U.S. property practice leader at Marsh, believes that, while currently employed primarily to assess catastrophic damage, VIS will increasingly be employed to inspect standard property damage claims.

However, he admitted that at this stage they are better at identifying binary factors such as the area affected by a peril rather than complex assessments, since VIS cannot look inside structures nor assess their structural integrity.

“If a chemical plant suffers an explosion, it might be difficult to say whether the plant is fully or partially out of operation, for example, which would affect a business interruption claim dramatically.

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“But for simpler assessments, such as identifying how many houses or industrial units have been destroyed by a tornado, or how many rental cars in a lot have suffered hail damage from a storm, a VIS drone could do this easily, and the insurer can calculate its estimated losses from there,” he said.

In addition,VIS possess powerful applications for pre-loss risk assessment and underwriting. The high-end drones used by insurers can capture not just visual images, but mapping heat, moisture or 3D topography, among other variables.

This has clear applications in the assessment and completion of claims, but also in potentially mitigating risk before an event happens, and pricing insurance accordingly.

“VIS and drones will play an increasing underwriting support role as they can help underwriters get a better idea of the risk — a picture tells a thousand words and is so much better than a report,” said Ellis.

VIS images allow underwriters to see risks in real time, and to visually spot risk factors that could get overlooked using traditional checks or even mature visual technologies like satellites. For example, VIS could map thermal hotspots that could signal danger or poor maintenance at a chemical plant.

Chris Luck, national practice leader of Advocacy, JLT Specialty USA

“Risk and underwriting are very natural adjacencies, especially when high risk/high value policies are being underwritten,” said Mathew.

“We are in a transformational moment in insurance where claims processing, risk management and underwriting can be reimagined with entirely new sources of data. The drone just happens to be one of most compelling of those sources.”

Ellis added that drones also could be employed to monitor supplies in the marine, agriculture or oil sectors, for example, to ensure shipments, inventories and supply chains are running uninterrupted.

“However, we’re still mainly seeing insurers using VIS drones for loss assessment and estimates, and it’s not even clear how extensively they are using drones for that purpose at this point,” he noted.

“Insurers are experimenting with this technology, but given that some of the laws around drone use are still developing and restrictions are often placed on using drones [after] a CAT event, the extent to which VIS is being used is not made overly public.”

Drone inspections could raise liability risks of their own, particularly if undertaken in busy spaces in which they could cause human injury.

Privacy issues also are a potential stumbling block, so insurers are dipping their toes into the water carefully.

Risk Improvement

There is no doubt, however, that VIS use will increase among insurers.

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“Although our clients do not have tremendous experience utilizing drones, this technology is beneficial in many ways, from providing security monitoring of their perimeter to loss control inspections of areas that would otherwise require more costly inspections using heavy equipment or climbers,” said Luck.

In other words, drones could help insurance buyers spot weaknesses, mitigate risk and ultimately win more favorable coverage from their insurers.

“Some risks will see pricing and coverage improvements because the information and data provided by drones will put underwriters at ease and reduce uncertainty,” said Ellis.

The flip-side, he noted, is that there will be fewer places to hide for companies with poor risk management that may have been benefiting from underwriters not being able to access the full picture.

Either way, drones will increasingly help insurers differentiate good risks from bad. In time, they may also help insurance buyers differentiate between carriers, too. &

Antony Ireland is a London-based financial journalist. He can be reached at [email protected]