Workers’ Compensation Medical Inflation Holds Steady in Q1 2026 as Broader Price Pressures Build
Workers’ compensation weighted medical prices rose 1.8% year over year in March 2026, a pace well below the 4.0% increase in consumer-paid medical costs and the 2.4% rise in the producer price index for health care services, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance’s Quarterly Medical Inflation Insights.
The gap between what consumers pay for medical care and what other payer types — including workers’ compensation — pay widened in the first quarter, a divergence NCCI flagged as a trend worth watching given recent shifts in the broader health care landscape.
Headline consumer price inflation surged to 3.3% in March, its largest monthly increase since 2022, driven primarily by higher energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at a more restrained 2.6%. NCCI noted that while direct energy costs are stripped out of core inflation, higher production and transportation expenses for other goods and services could eventually be passed through to consumers, potentially lifting the core inflation trend as well.
The report compared the recent oil price spike to a similar increase in early 2022 but cautioned against drawing too close a parallel. “Numerous other pandemic-related impacts contributed to the overall 2022 peak inflation of 9%,” the report stated, adding that based on current information, it does not see it as likely that inflation will approach those levels.
Hospital Costs and the Workers’ Compensation Outlook
The NCCI Workers’ Compensation Weighted Medical Index, or WCWMI, stood at 1.8% in March, below its one-year rolling average of 2.2% and its three- and five-year averages of 2.6%. NCCI said it believes the low pace is unlikely to be sustained and that the index will trend closer to its 2024 and 2025 levels later this year.
A key driver of the moderation was hospital outpatient care, which carries a 28% weight in the WCWMI. Year-over-year price growth in that category fell to 0.9% in March, down sharply from 2.9% in September and well below its one-year average of 2.8%. However, NCCI noted that more recent monthly price increases in hospital outpatient care have been consistent with a longer-term annualized trend of around 3.5%. Should that pace continue, the report said, the WCWMI would be expected to trend back toward 2.5%.
Hospital inpatient care, representing 12% of the index, moved in the opposite direction. Prices in that category rose 3.7% year over year in March, up from 2.4% in September, with a one-year average of 3.4% and a three-year average of 3.9% — both well above the 2015–2019 average of 2.1%.
Physician care prices, the largest component at 39% of the index, rose 1.4% in March, roughly in line with the category’s one-year average of 1.4%.
Tariffs and Drug Pricing Push Costs in Opposite Directions
Two components of the WCWMI moved notably in opposite directions during the first quarter. Medical equipment and supplies prices accelerated sharply, rising 4.1% year over year in March after registering just 0.8% growth in September. NCCI identified this as potentially one of the first signs of tariff-related impacts on prices in those categories. The component, which carries an 8% weight in the index, posted a one-year average increase of 1.5% — five times its 2015–2019 average of 0.3%.
Medicinal drug prices, meanwhile, declined 0.2% in March, following a 0.4% drop in February. NCCI attributed the decline to several federal government initiatives aimed at containing drug prices. Drugs carry a 7% weight in the index and posted a one-year average increase of just 0.4%, compared with a 2015–2019 average of 2.2%.
Long-term care costs, representing 6% of the index and encompassing home health, hospice, and nursing home care, continued to rise at an elevated rate. That category posted a 3.1% year-over-year increase in March, with a one-year average of 4.1% — more than double its 2015–2019 average of 1.9%.
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