Slow Hiring Amid Resilient GDP Creates Mixed Signals for Workers’ Compensation in 2026
The U.S. added just 116,000 net jobs in 2025 — a fraction of the pre-pandemic average of more than 190,000 per month — even as real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, close to early consensus forecasts, according to a quarterly economics briefing from the National Council on Compensation Insurance.
The disconnect between a resilient broader economy and a stalling labor market presents risk managers and insurers with competing signals heading into 2026, with implications for payroll-driven workers’ compensation premium, claims frequency, and the durability of economic growth itself, the NCCI said.
A One-Sector Labor Market and the Wage Surprise
Job creation in 2025 was overwhelmingly concentrated in a single industry group. Health care and social assistance accounted for 686,100 new positions over the year, meaning all other sectors combined shed more than 500,000 jobs, the report said. Manufacturing, trade, transportation, information services, professional services, and government all saw declining or flat employment.
Economic uncertainty — driven largely by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025 and a government shutdown in October — appeared to be the predominant factor behind the hiring slowdown, according to NCCI. Monthly employment figures oscillated between gains and losses through much of the year, and the total number of employed workers as of February 2026 was little changed from April 2025.
Despite the weakness in hiring, wage growth remained surprisingly elevated, even in sectors that lost jobs, the briefing noted. Because payroll — the basis for workers’ compensation premium — is a function of both employment and wages, the persistent wage gains helped keep payroll growth close to its pre-pandemic average.
The sustainability of that wage growth, however, is uncertain. NCCI identified two possible paths: if employment stays flat, downward pressure on wages is likely as employers face less competition for talent; if hiring rebounds, wages could remain elevated as companies work to retain workers.
Lower Turnover Could Ease Claims Frequency
For risk managers focused on loss trends, the hiring slowdown carries a potential upside. The reduction in both new hires and voluntary quits has meaningfully shrunk the pool of short-tenured workers — those with fewer than 12 months on the job — who are roughly twice as likely to file a lost-time claim compared with more experienced colleagues, NCCI found.
Workers in their first year of employment account for an estimated 35% to 43% of work injuries or workers’ compensation claims, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private insurers, and NCCI’s own indemnity data call, the report said. In concrete terms, the labor market averaged about 5.3 million hires per month in 2025, compared with roughly 6.4 million per month in 2022 during the height of what NCCI called the “Great Reshuffle.” That translates to approximately 14 million fewer new workers cycling through the economy over the course of the year — and 14 million fewer people in that elevated-risk, low-tenure category.
The interplay between turnover and wages adds another layer. Workers often boost their earnings by changing jobs, but with fewer people leaving positions and less hiring demand, the usual mechanism for wage acceleration has weakened. Yet wages have not declined as quickly as the low-growth, low-turnover environment would suggest, NCCI noted.
Geopolitical Risk Clouds the 2026 Outlook
A sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has introduced a new variable for economic forecasters, the briefing said. Higher commodity prices — particularly for oil and gas — could dampen consumer spending and raise non-labor input costs for businesses, potentially prompting some employers to cut labor expenses and prolonging the hiring slump, the NCCI said.
NCCI outlined four themes it will monitor through 2026: whether employment growth broadens beyond health care, the trajectory of wage growth, the effect of hiring and tenure trends on claims frequency, and the potential for geopolitical disruption to undermine what has so far been resilient economic output.
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