Global Medical Trend Eases to 9.0% for 2027, but Cost Pressures Remain Far Above Inflation

Health care costs worldwide are projected to grow at more than triple the rate of general inflation even as the pace of increases moderates, according to Aon.
By: | October 19, 2026
The cost of healthcare. Blue toned

The global average medical trend rate is projected to fall to 9.0% in 2027, down from 9.8% in 2026, according to Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report.

The report, based on surveys of more than 100 Aon locations globally that broker, administer or advise on employer-sponsored medical plans, found that medical trend rates are holding steady or declining in six of the 10 largest health care markets by spend. Still, the projected rate remains more than three times the 2.6% global general inflation rate forecast for 2027, and Aon cautioned that structural pressures, including chronic disease, aging populations, workforce shortages and demand for advanced treatments, remain firmly in place.

“While medical trend is easing, it remains more than triple the rate of inflation. Companies must take a proactive, data-led approach to managing costs while protecting the value of employee benefits,” said Michael Pedel, Aon’s head of global benefits.

Regional Trends Diverge Sharply

The moderation is not uniform across markets, Aon found.

North America’s gross trend is expected to edge down to 9.2% from 9.3%, the first such decline in five years, though its net trend, which strips out general inflation, is projected to rise slightly to 7.1% from 6.9%, which Aon said signals that medical costs are not cooling as quickly as general inflation. Latin America and the Caribbean remained largely flat, with gross trend ticking up to 10.4% from 10.3%, as a 1.35-percentage-point increase projected in Brazil is mostly offset by a 1.13-percentage-point decline in Mexico.

Asia-Pacific is projected to see gross medical trend fall to 9.7% in 2027 from 11.3% in 2026, led by declines of 1.8 percentage points in China and 1.4 percentage points in India, even as general inflation in the region is expected to rise slightly. Europe’s gross trend is projected to decline to 7.5% from 8.2%, with 70% of surveyed European countries expecting flat or lower trend in 2027, including a 2-percentage-point drop in the United Kingdom.

The Middle East and Africa region is projected to see the largest decline in gross medical trend, to 12.2% in 2027 from 15.3% in 2026, but that drop is driven entirely by cooling inflation. The region’s net medical trend rate is actually rising, to 7.9% from 7.6%.

Several major talent hubs, including France, Brazil, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Poland, are expected to see medical trend increase compared with 2026, the report said.

Chronic Disease and GLP-1s Drive Cost Pressure

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading driver of medical plan costs globally, cited as the most impactful condition by more than 25 countries, including Brazil, Egypt, Poland and the United Arab Emirates, Aon found. Cancer was identified as a top-five condition in every region, with 25 countries, including Argentina, Australia, Spain, Turkey and the U.S., reporting it as the most impactful condition, while hypertension ranks third and is particularly prominent in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Obesity has climbed to the third-leading global risk factor in 2027, up from fifth place two years earlier, according to Aon. That shift is intensifying the cost impact of GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes drugs, which are now available in nearly 70% of surveyed countries and covered under employer-sponsored plans in half of those markets.

Prescription drugs are now the third-costliest element of medical plan costs globally, cited by 68 markets, and GLP-1s and similar drugs account for anywhere from 1% to 10% of the medical trend rate across numerous countries, with the average over 3%, Aon found. In the U.S., about 12% of adults are using GLP-1 medications, with nearly two-thirds using them primarily or secondarily for weight loss, according to the report. In Brazil, where GLP-1 receptor agonists are not covered, Aon observed a 56% average reduction in claims related to bariatric surgeries, a potential cost offset.

To manage rising costs, Aon found that 87% of surveyed countries reported using wellbeing initiatives in 2027, the most widely used cost-mitigation strategy, while two-thirds expect to use flexible benefit plans. Expatriate medical trend rates, meanwhile, continue to outpace the global average by 1 to 2 percentage points, reflecting access to premium facilities and greater reliance on pay-and-claim arrangements, according to the report.

Obtain the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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