Catastrophe Losses Stay Below Average Through First Nine Months of 2026 as Record El Niño Builds
Global economic losses from natural disasters totaled at least $242 billion through the first three quarters of 2026, while insured losses reached approximately $92 billion, according to Gallagher Re’s Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report for the third quarter of 2026.
Both figures fell well short of the 2016-2025 Q1-Q3 averages of $360 billion for economic losses and $128 billion for insured losses, and mark the lowest economic loss total since 2015 and the lowest insured loss total since 2019.
The report attributed the subdued totals not to fewer disasters but to lower severity per event: there were 54 billion-dollar economic loss events, slightly above the 10-year average of 52, and 24 billion-dollar insured loss events, matching the 10-year average of 24.
A Historic Lull in Major Losses
Gallagher Re identified six consecutive quarters, from the second quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026, without a single natural catastrophe generating more than $10 billion in insured losses, calling it the longest such stretch in decades. Since 2022, only five events globally have crossed that threshold, compared with 13 between 2017 and 2021, the report said.
That favorable experience has coincided with strong reinsurer financial results: Gallagher Re’s companion Reinsurance Market Report found a 19.9% first-half return on equity and record global reinsurance capital of $688 billion. Even so, the report cautioned that global insured losses are still likely to top $100 billion in 2026, which would mark the 10th straight year above that level on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Many of the year’s largest disasters, including earthquakes in Venezuela and Colombia, struck regions with limited insurance penetration, leaving governments and households to absorb a large share of recovery costs, the report noted.
El Niño Emerges as a Record-Setting Force
The report’s featured analysis centered on the rapid strengthening of El Niño, which NOAA says has a greater than 81% probability of maintaining “very strong” status into January 2027, with a real chance of ranking among the strongest El Niño events in 1,000 years.
Gallagher Re’s proprietary loss database found that “Very Strong” or “Strong” El Niño months since 1980 produced an average economic loss rate of $55.1 billion per month and an insured loss rate of $12.9 billion, compared with $21.3 billion and $6.3 billion during all other ENSO states, a roughly 159% increase in per-month economic losses. La Niña’s strongest phases showed an even larger effect, with per-month economic losses about 338% higher than in neutral or weaker conditions, driven largely by landfalling U.S. hurricanes.
The protection gap widened accordingly, from 70% during other ENSO states to 77% during strong El Niño months and 78% during strong La Niña months, the report found. Early evidence of economic disruption has already emerged in Panama, where the Canal Authority reduced available daily slots from 36 to 34 in early September and to 32 beginning September 15 amid dry conditions, echoing restrictions during the 2023-24 El Niño.
Severe Storms and Heat Drove Insured Losses
Severe convective storms accounted for nearly 60% of global insured losses across all perils in the first nine months of the year, according to the report. U.S. SCS losses reached a minimum of $43 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year above $40 billion, while Canadian insurers recorded roughly $2.4 billion in SCS losses, the second-costliest year on record behind 2024’s $2.8 billion. European SCS losses topped $9 billion, driven by hail outbreaks in Germany, France, Switzerland and Italy.
Meteorological summer ranked as the warmest on record globally dating to 1850, with the contiguous U.S. posting its warmest summer ever, surpassing 1936’s Dust Bowl summer, and France recording its warmest and second-driest summer on record. NOAA data cited in the report showed 2026 running as the second-warmest January-September period since 1850, at 1.34 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline.
Obtain the full report here. &

