Catastrophe Losses Stay Below Average In H1 2026, But El Niño’s Impact Carries Hidden Risks
Global economic losses from natural catastrophes reached a minimum of $142 billion in the first half of 2026, 10% below the 2016-2025 average of $159 billion and the lowest H1 total since 2020’s $129 billion, according to Gallagher Re’s Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report.
Insured losses from natural catastrophes came in at a minimum of $46 billion in the first half of 2026, 28% below the decadal average of $64 billion and the lowest since 2019’s $42 billion, the report said. The period marked five consecutive quarters, from the second quarter of 2025 through the second quarter of 2026, without a single natural catastrophe event costing insurers more than $10 billion, Gallagher Re found.
Globally, there were 30 billion-dollar economic loss events during the half, below the 10-year average of 33, while 11 events crossed the billion-dollar threshold for insurers, vs. a 10-year average of 16. Gallagher Re said the below-average tally reflects an absence of additional multibillion-dollar industry events outside the U.S. rather than a reduction in overall catastrophe activity.
Weather and climate losses alone, excluding earthquakes and other non-atmospheric perils, totaled $104 billion in economic terms and at least $44 billion in insured terms, both notably below their respective decadal averages of $139 billion and $60 billion. The report noted 2026 was the first H1 period since 2020 without a single event topping $5 billion in insured losses.
Soft Market Conditions Persist As Capital Outpaces Premium
The subdued loss environment continues a trend that has held since 2022, when only five events — Hurricane Ian, Helene and Milton, and the Palisades and Eaton wildfires — topped $10 billion in insured losses, compared with 13 such events between 2017 and 2021, according to the report.
Gallagher Re’s report found that abundant capacity, strong reinsurer earnings and below-average catastrophe losses have continued pushing property catastrophe reinsurance pricing lower, with capital growth still outpacing premium growth and widening the gap between reinsurance supply and demand. Even so, the global protection gap remained wide, with 68% of the $142 billion in H1 economic losses left uninsured, the report said. The U.S. accounted for 78% of global insured losses, according to the report.
El Niño’s Arrival Complicates 2026 Hurricane Outlook
NOAA officially declared the arrival of El Niño in June, with an at least 81% chance it reaches “very strong” or “super” intensity by year-end, according to the report. Colorado State University’s July forecast called for a below-average Atlantic season of nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, down from its April and June forecasts and well below the 1991-2020 average of 14, seven and three.
But Gallagher Re cautioned against treating El Niño as a binary “risk-off” signal. Since 1950, El Niño years have averaged 1.1 U.S. hurricane landfalls annually, versus 2.2 in La Niña years, yet the 2004 season, despite weak El Niño conditions, produced five hurricane landfalls, the report said.
Using synthetic modeling from Reask’s Global Tropical Cyclone Climate-Connected Trackset, Gallagher Re found that an El Niño combined with a warmer-than-average Atlantic Main Development Region, the setup projected for 2026, suppresses landfall risk along the Gulf Coast, including Texas (-25%) and Louisiana (-18%), while elevating risk in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including New Jersey (+10%) and Delaware (+9%).
Globally, La Niña phases have historically produced far costlier tropical cyclone seasons than El Niño phases, with average annual economic losses of $103 billion vs. $49 billion, and insured losses of $35 billion vs. $12 billion, since 1990, according to the report.
Heat And Severe Storms Dominated The Half’s Losses
U.S. severe convective storms cost insurers at least $26 billion through H1, ranking as the seventh-costliest such period on record despite running below the five-year ($38 billion) and 10-year ($30 billion) averages, the report said.
Illinois recorded 179 tornado touchdowns, breaking its annual record by mid-year. Europe endured two exceptional heatwaves in late May and June, with the June event linked to more than 10,500 fatalities and all-time national temperature records set in at least seven countries. A June 24 earthquake doublet in Venezuela caused an estimated $37 billion in economic damage, more than 30% of the country’s GDP, with only about $1 billion expected to be insured, according to the report.
Obtain the full report here. &

