AI and Geopolitical Shifts Top Emerging Risks for Insurance Industry in 2026

Adverse AI outcomes and geoeconomic disruptions lead risk concerns among senior insurance leaders, according to a joint survey by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the Casualty Actuarial Society.
By: | May 21, 2026
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Sixty percent of C-suite respondents — including chief risk officers, chief actuaries and lead consulting partners — said economic and geopolitical risks would have the greatest impact on their organizations in 2026, with greater-than-normal financial volatility and geoeconomic and globalization shifts leading the way. But when asked to look three or more years ahead, the focus shifted decisively toward technology: 34% selected a technological risk as most impactful over the longer term, with artificial intelligence adverse outcomes chosen by 27% of senior leaders as the single greatest future threat, according to the 19th Annual Emerging Risk Survey released in March 2026.

The survey drew more than 100 C-suite participants and over 350 total respondents from across the insurance and financial services industries.

Near-Term Fears Diverge by Sector

The risks keeping executives up at night in 2026 varied significantly depending on their employer. Among C-suite participants at life insurance companies, 63% identified greater-than-normal financial volatility as the most impactful near-term risk — a reflection of the industry’s large asset bases and exposure to investment and asset-liability mismatch risk, the report said. None of the life company respondents selected an environmental or societal risk as most impactful in the current year.

Property and casualty insurance executives told a different story. Discrete extreme weather events topped their near-term concerns at 22%, followed closely by geoeconomic and globalization shifts at 20%. Social inflation — a risk not even included in the survey’s standard list of 17 options — was written in by 11% of P&C respondents as a top concern, the report noted.

Consulting firm leaders, meanwhile, were most focused on AI: 35% selected artificial intelligence adverse outcomes as the single most impactful risk in 2026, far outpacing any other individual risk among that group.

Technology Dominates the Longer-Term Horizon

As the time horizon extended to three or more years, the migration toward technological risks became pronounced across all sectors. For the C-suite group as a whole, the technological risk category jumped from 19% for 2026 to 34% for the longer term, while geopolitical risks dropped from 26% to 10%.

The combination of cyber events and AI adverse outcomes was the risk pair most frequently selected as having the greatest long-term combined impact, chosen by nearly 10% of C-suite respondents. The pairing of AI adverse outcomes and greater-than-normal financial volatility was equally prominent, also chosen by nearly 10%.

Only 24% of those who selected a geopolitical risk as most impactful in 2026 maintained that view for the longer-term period — the lowest persistence rate of any risk category. By contrast, 76% of those who chose a technological risk near-term stuck with that category for the longer term.

Climate Risks Recede as an ‘Emerging’ Concern

One of the survey’s most notable longitudinal findings is the declining prominence of climate-related risks in the emerging risk rankings. Climate change ranked first among the top five emerging risks in 2022 and beginning-of-year 2023 but no longer appears in the top five for 2026.

The report cautioned that the decline does not necessarily mean climate risks have become less consequential. Rather, “the risks have become more measurable, more modeled, and more embedded in enterprise risk frameworks,” the survey found. As risks transition from novel and ambiguous to structured and actively managed, respondents may stop viewing them as emerging and begin treating them as core, ongoing risks.

Geopolitical risk has also evolved in character. While armed conflict dominated geopolitical concerns in prior years, the 2026 survey reflects a shift toward sanctions, tariffs and trade controls as the primary expressions of geopolitical disruption, the report said. Geoeconomic and globalization shifts appeared among the top five emerging risks in the 2026 survey.

On the economic outlook, respondents were cautious: 57.7% expected moderate North American economic growth in 2026, while 52.7% anticipated a weaker labor market. Some 60.4% projected moderate inflation, and only 4.9% expected strong global economic growth.

Obtain the full report here.

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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