Trade Credit Insurance

Trade Credit Insurance Blossoms at Last in the U.S.

Key drivers include retail distress and eagerness on the part of banks to monetize.
By: | July 31, 2017 • 7 min read
Topics: Retail | Underwriting

After languishing for decades as a small fraction of the trade credit insurance (TCI) market in Europe, the U.S. business is blossoming. There are several main drivers, according to underwriters and brokers, notably the increased involvement by banks in monetizing sales receivables, the first signs of tightening credit since the great recession, and increasing retail distress and bankruptcies.

Advertisement




According to James Daly, president and chief executive officer of Euler Hermes in the Americas, the U.S., 2016 premium value for TCI in the U.S. was $717 million, an increase of 3 percent over the previous year. EH is one of the ‘Big Three’ global trade credit underwriters and the largest carrier in the sector in the U.S.

Marsh estimates premium totals in round numbers of about $1 billion in the U.S., $2 billion in Asia-Pacific, $4 billion in Europe, and $1 billion elsewhere for a global total of $8 billion.

Daly detailed that his firm assesses the TCI penetration in a region by number of possible client firms.

“Our view is that dollar value is distorted. We could write one huge corporation and that would skew the numbers. Based on the insurable universe we see penetration in the U.S. at 3 percent of companies, as compared to 10-15 percent of possible companies in Europe.”

In roughly similar numbers, underwriter XL Catlin estimates that something between 4-7 percent of receivables are covered in the U.S., as compared to 15-20 percent in the Europe.

According to estimates aggregated by brokerage Arthur. J. Gallagher from data provided by insureds, the volume of insured transactions written out of the U.S. grew from $48 billion in 1992 to $450 billion in 2012, adjusted for inflation. That includes domestic transactions as well as international transactions by entities operating and insured out of the U.S.

While that growth is impressive in absolute terms, it represents a large increase from a small base. Citing historical figures, Marc Wagman, managing director of Gallagher’s U.S. trade credit and political risk practice group, detailed that the U.S. volume of insured transactions grew during those 20 years from well under one half of one percent of gross domestic product to more than 3 percent of GDP. In contrast, the portion of insured transactions in other OECD countries ranges from 5 percent to 8 percent of GDP.

Marc Wagman, Managing Director, Arthur J. Gallagher’s U.S. trade credit and political risk practice group

“It is true that the percentage of participation is higher in Europe than in the U.S. but that gap has narrowed,” said Wagman.

“Demand in this country has been quite robust, and as a result more underwriters are coming in.”

While still a fraction of the market size in Europe and Asia, TCI has grown robustly in the U.S.

“When I started in this business in 1996 there were maybe half a dozen underwriters writing short-term, multi-buyer coverage,” Wagman added.

“Now we work with at least 15 carriers, and there are dozens of Lloyd’s markets.”

Within any country or region, premiums vary according to the size of the insureds and their business models.

“The average premium in the U.S. is about $40,000 a year,” said Daly at EH.

“In the U.K. that would be similar. But in a country like Poland the average premium drops to about 10,000 euros because the companies there are smaller and there are more start ups.”

Which is not to say that small firms are lesser clients. Quite to the contrary.

“We become part of the client’s risk and credit management,” said Daly.

Advertisement




“This is how they expand safely and is the real growth driver. Say there is a small manufacturer in the U.S. that has grown well domestically, and suddenly gets an order for 10,000 widgets from Chile, on 30-days’ terms. We can tell that manufacturer, ‘go ahead, trade, we know that buyer, we will underwrite the risk.’ The insurance part is only the last piece. The information comes first.”

As the U.S. market has grown, adding underwriters and capacity, there has been innovation.

“There is a willingness to write larger single-buyer limits on sub-investment grade names as well as more ‘non-trade’ type of business,” said Wagman at Gallagher.

“And there are more carriers willing to write non-cancellable coverage or hybrid programs that have both non-cancellable and cancellable components.”

He stressed that the underwriting approach taken – cancellable versus non-cancellable – depends upon the client’s needs. In a non-cancellable policy, the underwriter commits to insure counter-party risk for the insured up to a limit, and that limit is good for the policy year, even if there is deterioration of the insured’s credit risk.

In a cancellable policy, if there is a deterioration of the client’s credit risk, the carrier can give a month or two of notice and cancel the limit for future shipments. The underwriter is still responsible for coverage of existing receivables up to that point.

“The banks have discovered this, and are gulping up capacity. That is driving innovation in the coverage.”– Stephen Atallah, senior executive vice president for commercial and risk underwriting, Coface

Wagman observed that cancellable coverage is often misunderstood.

“This is not the insurer telling the client with whom to do business. For the most part, cancellable coverage is for smaller businesses that don’t have their own credit departments and rely upon the underwriter for that credit limit decision-making support. Non-cancellable is primarily for larger operations that do most, if not all, of their own credit analysis. In non-can, the carrier is effectively underwriting the client’s credit management.”

The growing element in TCI is lending and capitalization, said Stephen Atallah, senior executive vice president for commercial and risk underwriting at Coface, another of the Big Three global underwriters. The third is Atradius.

“Supply-chain financing is a big application for TCI,” Atallah.

“The banks have discovered this, and are gulping up capacity. That is driving innovation in the coverage.”

Banks that acquire receivables may be the insureds themselves, or they may be the loss payee on receivables pledged as collateral. Sometimes banks require TCI before they will lend against receivables, other times they merely make in known that insured business gets an advantage on rates and terms.

Atallah noted that hybrid contracts, with a non-cancellable top tier and cancellable coverage for the bulk of an insured’s sales, has been around for a long time. “Those are a way to address the common mismatch between what the client wants and what the carriers can underwrite. Clients often want non-cancellable coverage for riskier customers. The innovation is delayed cancellation. No one wants to wake up to find they don’t have coverage. Pulling a line should not throw a business into turmoil. So now there is 30-, 60-, and 90-day notice.”

Michael Kornblau, U.S. trade credit practice leader, Marsh

While carriers might bemoan soft rates in a competitive market, Clay Sasse, managing director and U.S. practice leader for trade credit at Aon suggested that new entrants are spurring penetration.

“Once the recession was over, everyone was still spooked,” he recalled.

“But a lot of new carriers with a lot of capacity came in. They were betting that there would not be any huge knock-out bankruptcies, and they were correct. That over capacity overcame the damage that had been done during the recession.”

Scott Ettien, trade credit practice leader at Willis Towers Watson, observed that the credit environment since the great recession has been fairly benign. But recent structural changes in retail, such the boom in on-line sales, are forcing retailers to change the way they do business.

“If they don’t keep up, they fail. The payment for a claim is important, sure, but avoiding the loss is more important in the first place.”

Another widely noted factor in different rates of penetration in the U.S. and Europe is simply cultural. This is anecdotal, but something most sources mentioned.

“The business culture in the U.S. is generally more risk tolerant,” noted Jeffrey Abramson, head of the trade receivables practice at underwriter XL Catlin.

Advertisement




“Companies can protect their receivables in lots of different ways, including choosing not to. Which is self insuring.  It seems that we have been talking about increasing penetration rates in the U.S. for 15 years. At last it feels like progress.”

Michael Kornblau, U.S. trade credit practice leader at Marsh, said that the uptick in bankruptcies is increasing awareness for TCI.

“Interestingly, bankruptcies are increasing, but premiums are not increasing because capacity is increasing.” He also notes growth in Europe.

“The European banks are using TCI for capital relief under the Basel III Accords.”

Gregory DL Morris is an independent business journalist based in New York with 25 years’ experience in industry, energy, finance and transportation. He can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Business Interruption Risk

Hidden Risks of Violence

The Las Vegas shooting and other tragedies increase demand for non-physical damage BI coverages. The market is growing, but do new products meet companies’ new needs?
By: | December 14, 2017 • 5 min read

Mass shootings in the United States and the emergence of new forms of terrorism in Europe are boosting demand for insurance against losses caused by business interruption when a policyholder suffers no direct property damage, according to insurers.

Advertisement




But brokers say coverage for non-physical damage BI (NDBI), needs to evolve to better meet the emerging needs of corporate clients.

For years, manufacturing clients sought a more comprehensive range of NDBI coverages, especially due to the indirect effects of natural catastrophes such as the Thai floods that disrupted global supply chains in 2011.

More recently, however, hospitality and entertainment companies are expressing interest as they strive to adapt to realities such as the mass shootings in tourism hotspots Las Vegas and Orlando and terror attacks in such popular destinations as New York, Paris, Berlin, Barcelona and London.

In addition to loss of life and property, revenue loss is a real risk. Tragedies that cause a high number of fatalities can cause severe financial losses, especially for companies relying on tourism, as visitors shy away from crime scenes.

Precedents already exist. Paris received 1.5 million fewer visitors than expected in 2016, after the French capital was targeted by a series of deadly terror attacks the year before.

More recently, bookings declined in the immediate aftermath of a shooting at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas that took the lives of 58 people on October 1: Bookings at the hotel have since recovered.

Joey Sylvester, national director of operations & planning, Public Sector, Gallagher

“The recent horrific mass shootings in Las Vegas, Nev., and in Sutherland Springs, Texas, raised awareness and concerns about similar events occurring in areas where the public congregates, such as entertainment venues like sporting events, concerts, restaurants, movie theaters, convention centers and more,” said Bob Nusslein, head of Innovative Risk Solutions Americas, Swiss Re CS.

“The second highest NDBI cover to natural catastrophes is terrorism, including active shooter and mass shootings.”

However, products available in the market do not always provide the protection companies would like. Active shooter coverages, for example, focus mostly on third-party liabilities that policyholders may face after a shooting.

Loss-of-attraction policies often define triggering events with a high degree of detail. These events may need to be characterized as a terrorist attack or act of war by authorities. In some cases, access to the venue needs to be officially cut off by police.

It follows that an attack by a 64-year old ex-accountant who shoots hundreds of people for no apparent reason — as was the case in the Mandalay Bay tragedy — isn’t likely to align with a typical policy trigger.

But insurers say they are trying to adapt to the evolving realities of both mass shootings and terrorism to meet the new needs expressed by clients.

“The active shooting coverage is drawing much interest in the U.S. market right now. In Europe, clients are increasingly inquiring about loss of attraction,” said Chris Parker, head of terrorism and political violence, Beazley.

“What we are doing at the moment is to try and cross these two kinds of products, so that a client can get coverage for the loss of attraction resulting from an active shooting event.”

Loss-of-attraction policies cover revenue loss derived from catastrophic events, and underwriters already offer alternatives that provide coverage, even when no property damage is involved.

To establish the reach of such a policy, buyers can define a trigger radius — a physical area defined in the policy. If a catastrophic event takes place within this radius, coverage will be triggered. This practice is sometimes called “cat in a box.”

Some products specify locations that, if hit by a catastrophic event, will result in lost revenue for the insured. For resorts or large entertainment complexes, for example, attacks on nearby airports could cause significant loss of revenue and could be covered by NDBI insurance.

Measuring losses is a challenge, and underwriters may demand steep retention levels. According to Parker, excess coverage may kick in after a 20 percent to 25 percent revenue drop.

Insurers will also want proof that the drop is related to the catastrophic event rather than economic downturn, seasonal variances or other factors.

“Capacity is very large for direct acts of terrorism but lower for indirect terrorism and violent acts because the exposure is far greater,” said Joey Sylvester, national director of operations & planning, Public Sector, Gallagher.

“Commercial businesses, public entities, religious and nonprofit organizations have various needs for this type of coverage, and the appetite is certainly trending upward.”

It is difficult to foresee which events will cause business disruption. As a result, according to Nusslein, companies generally prefer to purchase all-risk NDBI covers rather than named-perils coverage.

“The main reason is that, if they have coverage for four potential NDBI events and a fifth event occurs, the fifth event is not covered,” he said. “Insurers, new to NDBI covers, still prefer named-perils covers over all-risk cover.”

Current geopolitical tensions are also fueling buyers’ demands.

“Many companies want nuclear, biochemical, chemical and radiological exclusions removed from terrorism NDBI covers. While this is more difficult for insurers, it is not impossible,” Nusslein said.

“War risk NDBI cover is becoming more sought after due to political tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.”

“Many companies want nuclear, biochemical, chemical and radiological exclusions removed from terrorism NDBI covers. While this is more difficult for insurers, it is not impossible.” — Bob Nusslein, head of Innovative Risk Solutions Americas, Swiss Re CS

Natural catastrophes still constitute the largest share of perils underlying NDBI products.  Parametric indexes are increasingly employed to provide uncontroversial triggers to policies, said Duncan Ellis, U.S. property practice leader, Marsh.

These indexes range from rainfall levels and wind speed to the measured intensity of earthquakes. Interest in this kind of NDBI coverage expanded after the recent hurricane season.

Advertisement




“The benefit of these products is that you do not have to go through the settlement process, which clients hate,” Ellis said.

NDBI policies are often bespoke, which is more common for very large insurance buyers.

“Usually, the market offers bespoke coverages for individual industries or clients, with very significant deductibles,” said Tim Cracknell, partner,  JLT Specialty.

NDBI cover can also help transfer regulatory and product recall risks. The life science sector is expressing interest in this kind of solution for cases where a supplier goes bankrupt or is shut down by a regulator, or a medication needs to be recalled due to perceived flaws in the manufacturing process.

Experts say that concerns still to be addressed are NDBI losses caused by cyber attacks and pandemics.

Capacity is an ongoing concern. According to Swiss Re CS, $50 million to $100 million, or even more, can be achieved through foundation capacity provided by a lead insurer, with syndicated capacity to other insurers and reinsurers, depending on the risk. &

Rodrigo Amaral is a freelance writer specializing in Latin American and European risk management and insurance markets. He can be reached at [email protected]