Workers’ Compensation Remains Profitable as Premium Dips and Severity Climbs
Workers’ compensation continued to outperform most property and casualty lines in 2025, posting a calendar year combined ratio of 91%, which was well below the industry’s overall 93% mark and among the strongest underwriting results across major lines of business, according to NCCI’s 2026 State of the Line report.
Despite the favorable profitability picture, net written premium for private carriers was essentially flat at $41.6 billion, a decrease of 0.2% that made workers’ compensation the only major property & casualty line to see premiums shrink, the report said.
Premium Pressures Build as Rate Levels Fall
The slight dip in net written premium reflects several converging forces. Private carrier direct written premium across NCCI and independent bureau states fell 1.8% between 2024 and 2025, with decreases visible in many individual states, according to the report.
A key driver is continued downward movement in bureau loss cost levels: approved NCCI filings are expected to reduce written premiums by an average of 5.0% from 2025 to 2026. The most recent state-level filings showed decreases in nearly every NCCI jurisdiction, with changes ranging from a 15.6% decrease to a 21.6% increase — the latter a standout result in Nevada against a backdrop of widespread cuts, the report said.
Payroll — the primary exposure base for workers compensation — grew roughly 5% in 2025, but that growth was driven almost entirely by wage increases rather than employment gains. Only the health care sector meaningfully contributed to employment growth, NCCI found. While rising payroll partially offset the impact of declining loss costs on premium volume, the net effect still left overall premium in negative territory.
The residual market continued to contract. Premium in NCCI-serviced pools fell to roughly $640 million in policy year 2025, extending a downward trend from a peak of about $1.15 billion in 2015, although the pace of decline has slowed. The residual market share dropped to approximately 5%, the report said.
Frequency Decline Moderates While Severity Accelerates
The report flagged a shift in the balance between claim frequency and severity that risk managers and underwriters have watched for years. Lost-time claim frequency fell 2% in 2025, which was a continued decline, but a more moderate one than the long-term average, according to NCCI. At the same time, severity growth picked up, with medical claim severity and indemnity claim severity each rising 4%.
Separately, the accident year combined ratio — which strips out the favorable impact of prior-year reserve releases — stood at 102% for 2025, above the breakeven threshold, according to the report. The calendar year combined ratio was 91%, and NCCI estimated the industry’s redundant reserve position at $14 billion.
Cumulative Trauma Trends Diverge by State
NCCI’s analysis of cumulative trauma injuries showed a stable national picture alongside a notable state-level outlier. In NCCI states, the share of lost-time claims tied to cumulative trauma has held steady since 2013 at between 1% and 6%. In California, however, cumulative trauma injuries are becoming more common and now account for approximately 26% of lost-time claims, which was far above the NCCI-state average, according to data from the Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California cited in the report.
Claims are classified as cumulative trauma if the primary diagnosis is carpal tunnel syndrome or if the claim carries a nature-of-injury or loss-condition code corresponding to a cumulative trauma injury, the report said.
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