Workers’ Comp Profits May Decline, Fitch Reports
The U.S. workers’ compensation insurance line, currently the strongest performing major commercial product for the property and casualty (P/C) industry, may see a decline in overall redundancy and signs of diminishing reserve strength, according to a newly released Fitch Ratings report.
The workers’ compensation insurance line has enjoyed nine consecutive years of underwriting profits, boasting an average combined ratio (CR) of 91% from 2015-2023, which further dropped to an 88% CR in 2023. However, the highly competitive and cyclical nature of the workers’ compensation market suggests that this extended period of robust underwriting profits may soon come to an end.
The profitability of the segment has been driven by a long-term trend of strong reserve redundancies, a decrease in claims frequency, and stable loss severity trends, the report noted.
The P/C industry has reported unusually favorable workers’ compensation reserve strength, with the change in prior-year incurred losses relative to calendar year earned premiums averaging -14% for 2017-2023, Fitch Ratings reported. This strength in workers’ compensation has helped offset unfavorable reserve experiences in other segments such as commercial auto liability and other liability-occurrence and claims-made coverage.
However, workers’ compensation loss reserves, estimated to range between 8% and 12% ($11-$17 billion) redundant at YE 2023, show signs of decline. The magnitude of redundancy appears to be decreasing as recent years’ favorable reserve experience lags behind prior highly redundant years at the same period of development, the report stated.
Indications of a moderately less conservative approach to reporting segment incurred losses include lower initial loss ratio estimates in accident years 2022-2023 versus prior years, despite a weakening price environment, and reduced levels of incurred but not reported losses as a percentage of total incurred losses, according to Fitch.
While the segment is expected to continue being a source of industry reserve strength, changes in market competitive conditions or loss severity trends could adversely affect reserve experience. This could push the segment closer to break-even or worse underwriting performance, impacting overall industry profitability, the report noted.
Access the full report on Fitch Ratings’ website. &