US Property & Casualty Insurance Outlook: Steady Profits Despite Cooling Growth

The U.S. property and casualty insurance industry is expected to maintain a stable 10% return on equity in 2025 and 2026 despite slowing premium growth and increasing competitive pressures, according to Swiss Re Institute’s latest outlook.
The P&C industry’s four-year growth streak is beginning to cool, the report said, with direct written premium (DPW) growth expected to decelerate to 5.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, down from 9.6% in 2024. This marks a significant shift from the double-digit gains that characterized commercial lines in 2021-22 and personal lines in 2023-24, according to Swiss Re.
DPW growth already dipped below 7% in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time since early 2021, signaling the market’s transition toward more normalized growth patterns. The convergence is evident across both commercial and personal lines, with growth rates settling into mid-single digits after years of elevated performance.
Investment income provides a bright spot, with portfolio yields projected to rise to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2024, the report noted. Insurers have strategically extended the average maturity of their fixed-income portfolios during the recent period of higher interest rates, positioning themselves to benefit as securities mature and are reinvested, the report noted.
Competitive Pressures and Catastrophe Risks Create Headwinds
Rising capacity and intensifying competition are reshaping market dynamics across multiple lines of business. Commercial insurance prices declined for the first time since early 2018 in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by a 9% drop in property pricing. Meanwhile, casualty prices increased 12% as social inflation continues to pressure liability claims costs, the report said.
The seven-year hard market in commercial lines continues to weaken, though with notable differentiation between property and casualty segments. Elevated capacity in the admitted market and declining property rates may begin to impact growth in the excess and surplus lines market, with early data for Q2 suggesting non-admitted premiums growth dropped below 10% for the first time in five years, the report said.
Catastrophe activity remains a persistent concern, with California wildfires and elevated severe convective storm activity in the second quarter of 2025 weighing on overall results. The industry recorded a 99% combined ratio in the first quarter despite these challenges, demonstrating underlying strength but highlighting ongoing vulnerability to natural disasters, Swiss Re noted.
Personal auto insurance faces particular uncertainty in the second half of 2025, with potential tariff impacts on vehicle production supply chains creating additional volatility, the report said. Early signs of acceleration in claims components such as used car prices and repairs add to the complexity, though insurers resumed rate cuts after initially pausing following tariff announcements.
Stable Profitability Expected Despite Margin Compression
The industry’s combined ratio is forecast to deteriorate slightly to 98.5% in 2025 and 99% in 2026, compared to 97.2% in 2024, according to the report. This modest weakening reflects the natural cycle of market conditions, where strong performance creates incentives for increased competition and market share growth.
Underlying underwriting results excluding catastrophes reached their best level in at least 20 years in 2024, with an 88% combined ratio, according to the report.
However, rapid rate deceleration across several lines contributes to expectations that underwriting performance will begin to normalize as companies compete more aggressively for market share, Swiss Re said.
By line of business, the three that posted the greatest year over year improvement in direct loss ratios in Q1 were: Product liability, a 23% reduction to 17%; ocean marine, an 8% decline to 40%; and commercial auto physical damage, down 5% to 53%. The lines of business that saw direct loss ratios deteriorated the most were: boiler and machinery, increasing 17% to a 40% loss ratio; fire & allied lines, 14% increase to 55%; and aircraft insurance, up 9% to 60%.
View the full report here. &