Small Commercial Insurance Market Grows to $158 Billion as Insurers Bet on Main Street Resilience
Independent agents remain the dominant force in U.S. small commercial insurance distribution, and years of predictions that business owners would move en masse to buying coverage online have largely failed to come true, according to a new report from Conning.
Instead, executives interviewed for the report said the competitive fight has shifted to speed and appetite clarity, with carriers investing in prefill data, automated underwriting and appetite APIs to earn a spot among the two or three quotes an agency customer service representative typically pulls before binding a policy.
The findings come as the small commercial market (SCM) grew to roughly $158 billion of direct premium as of year-end 2025, according to Conning, which based its estimate on 2025 statutory data from S&P alongside its own market-sizing methodology. The market remains highly fragmented, with well over 1,000 insurers competing, though the top 50 account for roughly 74% of premium. Progressive ranked as the leading SCM insurer for the third consecutive Conning report, followed by The Hartford, Auto-Owners, State Farm and Liberty Mutual.
A Fragmented Market With Four Distinct Segments
Conning’s research, based on interviews conducted in the spring of 2026 with senior executives at insurers ranging from small regional carriers to national powerhouses, found little uniformity among businesses that fall under the small commercial umbrella.
Conning segments the market into four groups:
- Non-employer firms (sole proprietors)
- Micro businesses (one to four employees)
- Core businesses (five to 29 employees)
- And an upper tier it calls “Gap” or “smiddle” (30 to 49 employees) that blurs the line with middle-market risk.
SCM accounts generate premiums ranging from $250 to $100,000, though Conning identified a “sweet spot” between $5,000 and $25,000.
Conning further split the 31 million non-employer firms into “Side Hustlers/Hobbyists,” about 7.6 million businesses generating less than $5,000 in annual revenue, and 23.4 million “Dedicated Business Owners.” Because the economics of pursuing hobbyist businesses are challenging for both insurers and agents, Conning concluded that roughly 29 million SCM businesses represent the realistic pool for active pursuit.
Several executives interviewed by Conning described the micro segment, businesses with limited complexity and strong growth potential, as increasingly critical to competing in the broader SCM market.
One executive told Conning: “We are targeting that segment of the business, even firms with under $1 million or $2 million in revenue. That’s attractive business to us, and we’ve developed some pretty strong capabilities, leveraging technology, leveraging digital distribution platforms to access that market.”
Despite economic headwinds, Conning found evidence that the small business market remains fundamentally healthy. The National Foundation for Independent Business measured small business owner optimism at 97.4, just below the index’s 52-year average of 98 but an improvement over the prior three months’ readings, according to the NFIB data cited by Conning.
Sixty-seven percent of owners rated their business health as excellent or good. Still, 32% reported unfillable job openings, 21% cited inflation as their top business problem, and the American Bankruptcy Institute found small business Chapter 11 filings jumped to 1,663 in the first half of 2026 from 1,107 in the same period of 2025.
Agents Retain Their Grip on Distribution
Despite the rise of direct digital insurers, embedded insurance platforms and comparative raters such as CoverWallet, Embroker and Tarmika, executives interviewed by Conning said none of these alternatives have displaced independent agents as the dominant distribution channel. Conning reported that industry predictions of a wholesale shift to online small business insurance purchasing have largely failed to materialize, as business owners continue to value the risk assessments agents provide.
Executives said speed and appetite clarity, rather than agent disintermediation, have become the defining competitive battlegrounds, with carriers investing in prefill data, automated underwriting and appetite APIs to win a place among the two or three quotes a customer service representative typically pulls before binding a policy.
Agency consolidation has added complexity, with larger agencies prioritizing workflow efficiency even as “mom and pop” agencies persist, particularly in rural areas, Conning found.
A.I. dominated executives’ discussion of technology, with production deployments already underway across underwriting and claims functions, though a few executives voiced skepticism that A.I. would deliver the dramatic expense reductions vendors often promise, noting that past technology waves have not meaningfully moved industry expense ratios. &


