Reinsurance Market Shifts to Buyers’ Favor as Cat Bond Issuance Shatters Records

Reinsurance pricing declined approximately 10% at June 2025 renewals, marking the most favorable conditions for reinsurance buyers in years as record catastrophe bond issuance of $16.8 billion in the first half outpaced full-year 2024 issuance levels, according to AM Best.
The insurance-linked securities (ILS) market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with first-half 2025 CAT bond issuance reaching $16.8 billion compared to $12.1 billion in the same period last year. First-quarter issuance jumped 63% year-over-year to $6.3 billion, while second quarter volume rose 28% to $10.5 billion, pushing outstanding CAT bond volume to a record $52.7 billion, according to AM Best.
Record Capital Inflows Transform Market Dynamics
The record-breaking surge reflects strong investor appetite despite tightening spreads, according to the report. Loss multiples—the ratio of spread to expected loss—have continued their downward trend, indicating investors are accepting lower returns for the risks they assume, AM Best noted. The final issuance volume for the first half of 2025 exceeded target volumes by 29.9%, demonstrating sponsors’ confidence in capital markets and investors’ belief that pricing remains attractive.
A significant shift in sponsor composition has emerged, with small- to medium-sized U.S. domestic insurers now commanding 35.2% market share, up from 21.2% in 2024, according to the report. These insurers are increasingly turning to capital markets as traditional reinsurance remains expensive, seeking fully collateralized multi-year protection. Many are offering multiple tranches to target investors with specific risk appetites, with one sponsor issuing five different tranches, the report noted.
“The capital markets allow these insurers access to a broad range of investors, and the insurers in turn can get fully collateralized multi-year reinsurance,” said Emmanuel Modu, managing director of AM Best.
Massive Losses Fail to Derail Softening Trend
The market’s resilience has been tested by substantial catastrophe losses, including an estimated $40 billion from January’s devastating Los Angeles wildfires and approximately $31 billion from severe convective storms in the first half of 2025. Despite these losses consuming significant portions of catastrophe budgets, the supply and demand dynamics remained largely unchanged at mid-year renewals, AM Best said.
Florida’s market demonstrates this dynamic clearly. Citizens Property Insurance Corporation placed $3.125 billion of risk into capital markets in 2025, nearly doubling its $1.6 billion placement in 2024. Despite reducing its exposure from $618 billion in September 2023 to $295 billion by June 2025 through depopulation efforts, Citizens still issued one of the largest CAT bonds ever at $1.525 billion, representing 15% of second-quarter property CAT bond issuances, the report noted.
The pricing relief at midyear has not been uniform across reinsurance towers, AM Best said. Upper layers experienced high single-digit rate reductions on average, driven by strong capital inflows particularly from CAT bond investors. Lower layers saw flat to modest reductions, reflecting tighter supply relative to demand as new Florida insurers and Citizens’ depopulation efforts drive additional needs at these attachment points.
“Full-year 2025 CAT bond market returns are unlikely to match the levels observed in 2024; however, spread levels on the in-force deals and current levels of collateral yield suggest the 2025 return will be higher than the average observed from 2017 to 2022,” said Wai Tang, senior director of AM Best.
Capacity Growth Points to Continued Competitive Pressures
Guy Carpenter and AM Best project ILS capacity will reach an all-time high of $114 billion by year-end 2025, representing nearly 10% year-over-year growth. The expansion reflects not only record CAT bond issuance but also renewed investor interest in collateralized reinsurance deals, which offer exposure to risks not widely available in the CAT bond market.
Market returns have moderated significantly, with the Swiss Re Global CAT Bond Index posting 2.77% year-to-date through June 2025 versus 5.79% in the prior year period. January’s negative returns, driven by wildfire losses, set a weaker tone for the year. While full-year 2025 returns are unlikely to match 2024 levels, elevated spread levels on in-force deals and current collateral yields suggest returns will exceed the 2017-2022 average.
“Going into the January 2026 renewals, a further softening in rates is expected unless a major CAT event occurs,” the report said. “If reinsurers preserve discipline on coverage terms, even lower rates could perhaps produce acceptable returns resulting in adequate profits, but not as high as the ones observed during the peak of the hard market.”
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