Medicaid Unwinding Linked to Higher Workers’ Comp Medical Costs, WCRI Finds

Medical payments for lost-time workers’ compensation claims rose 3.1% in the states most exposed to the 2023-2024 Medicaid “unwinding,” with no corresponding change in claim frequency, indemnity benefits, temporary disability duration or attorney involvement, according to a Workers Compensation Research Institute analysis of claims data from 31 states. The findings offer an early look at...
By: | November 4, 2026
Topics: Claims | News | Workers' Comp
Hospital Emergency Entrance with Ambulance

Medical payments for lost-time workers’ compensation claims rose 3.1% in the states most exposed to the 2023-2024 Medicaid “unwinding,” with no corresponding change in claim frequency, indemnity benefits, temporary disability duration or attorney involvement, according to a Workers Compensation Research Institute analysis of claims data from 31 states.

The findings offer an early look at how the substantially larger Medicaid coverage losses expected under the 2025 reconciliation law, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1), could affect workers’ compensation systems. WCRI used the loss of continuous Medicaid coverage after the COVID-19 public health emergency ended as a window into those effects. The Congressional Budget Office projects the law will reduce Medicaid enrollment by roughly 11.4 million people by 2034, after accounting for duplicate enrollment records, and increase the uninsured population by 7.5 million, WCRI noted.

Construction, Manufacturing Workers Hit Hardest

The effects were not evenly distributed, WCRI found. Medical payments for lost-time claims rose 10.1% among construction workers and 6.1% among manufacturing workers, compared with the overall 3.1% increase across all lost-time claims.

Restaurants and entertainment, the industry group with the highest concentration of Medicaid-insured workers (20% of non-disabled workers ages 21 to 64 in the industry reported Medicaid coverage, compared with 12% across all industries, according to 2022 American Community Survey data cited in the report), saw a 4.6% increase in medical payments across all claims.

Male workers experienced a 4.7% increase in medical payments for lost-time claims, while workers ages 25 to 55 saw a 3.5% increase, and claims involving fractures rose 3.7%, the report said. Low-wage workers, those with incomes below roughly $30,000 annually, saw medical payments climb 4.3% across all claims, WCRI found.

The increase in overall medical payments was driven by a 6.7% rise in hospital payments for lost-time claims, partially offset by a 3.3% decline in nonhospital payments, according to the report. WCRI said the decline in nonhospital spending was tied to fewer claims involving evaluation and management services, radiology and physical medicine, while the share of claims with prescription payments increased.

The report suggested the hospital payment increase may reflect providers seeking new revenue streams as Medicaid, a reliable third-party payor, disappeared for many patients in a given community, a dynamic that could extend beyond workers who personally lost coverage.

No Evidence of Claim-Shifting, at Least Not Yet

Despite the increase in medical spending, WCRI found no statistically significant effect on workers’ compensation claim frequency, meaning there was no evidence that workers began filing more claims to replace lost Medicaid coverage.

The report said this may reflect workers’ reluctance to engage in claiming behavior that could risk their jobs during a period of heightened economic vulnerability, or confusion among workers about whether they still had Medicaid coverage during the unwinding period. WCRI cautioned that evidence of claim-shifting could emerge later as workers become more aware of their coverage status.

The report also found no effect on total costs per claim, indemnity benefits, or temporary disability duration in the overall sample, though it noted increases in total costs for lost-time claims in construction, manufacturing, and restaurants and entertainment, as well as among low-wage workers and males.

Scaling the Findings to H.R. 1

WCRI estimated that a drop in Medicaid coverage from the 75th percentile to the 25th percentile of state exposure, equivalent to a decrease in the number of Medicaid-insured workers by about half, or about 8 million, translates into about $386 million in additional annual workers’ compensation medical spending nationally, based on an estimated 900,000 paid indemnity claims annually and average medical expenditures of $13,834 per claim at 12 months of maturity.

WCRI separately approximated that the 2023-2024 unwinding itself resulted in about 4 million workers losing Medicaid coverage. Because H.R. 1 is projected to produce substantially larger Medicaid coverage losses than the 2023-2024 unwinding, and because additional workers may lose coverage through Affordable Care Act exchanges due to rising premiums, the report said the resulting effects on workers’ compensation are likely to be greater than those identified in this study.

WCRI noted its analysis was limited to 12 months of claim maturity and that additional impacts, including changes in population health or the broader health care system, may emerge over longer follow-up periods.

Obtain the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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