Commercial Auto Insurance Losses Hit $4.9 Billion as Social Inflation Drives Severity Beyond Pricing Gains

Commercial auto liability losses reach record highs while physical damage remains profitable, AM Best reports.
By: | September 22, 2025
commercial auto

The commercial auto insurance line posted a $4.9 billion underwriting loss in 2024, marking the 14th consecutive year of losses as social inflation drives claim severity increases averaging 8% annually—more than double the 3% economic inflation rate—according to AM Best’s U.S. Property Casualty Commercial Auto Market Review.

The gap between commercial auto liability and physical damage performance has reached unprecedented levels, with liability coverage posting its largest-ever loss of $6.4 billion while physical damage generated its highest profit in 2024 at $1.5 billion. The auto liability loss and loss adjustment expense ratio hit 87.6, the highest in 11 years and 24.6 points higher than the physical damage ratio, the report said.

This divergence has accelerated through 2025, with second-quarter results showing an 18-point gap between liability and physical damage loss ratios, up from single digits in 2022 and 2023. Commercial auto physical damage coverage has maintained profitability for six of the past seven years, achieving a combined ratio of 88.6 in 2024—its best performance outside the pandemic year.

The contrast poses strategic challenges for commercial insurers as policyholders may opt for higher deductibles or forgo optional physical damage coverage entirely, eliminating the cushion that helps offset mounting liability losses, AM Best said.

“One bright spot to note is that during the past decade, insurers have trimmed about six percentage points off their underwriting expense ratio for commercial auto insurance,” said Christopher Graham, senior industry analyst at AM Best. “While commercial auto insurers are not recognized as often as personal auto insurers for adopting and leveraging technology through their operations, commercial auto insurers have nevertheless made some strides in improving their efficiency.”

Claims Complexity and Social Inflation Compound Industry Challenges

Commercial auto insurers face a perfect storm of adverse loss development, with over $2.7 billion stemming from accident years 2021 and later as claims remain open longer and become more susceptible to nuclear verdicts, the report said. The industry averaged seven points of adverse prior accident year loss reserve development on the calendar year loss ratio over the past decade.

“With claims remaining open longer, insurers have more direct costs in attorney fees and expert witnesses as cases are negotiated before trial,” the report notes, highlighting how delayed claim closures expose insurers to precedent-setting verdicts that ripple through the industry.

Average loss severity for commercial auto liability claims has more than doubled over the past nine years, with attorneys increasingly pursuing cases they previously would have bypassed, AM Best noted. This social inflation phenomenon extends beyond basic commercial auto coverage, affecting umbrella policies as more claims exceed the typical $1 million policy limit.

Industry Faces Continued Rate Pressure Despite 14 Years of Increases

AM Best projects commercial auto remains under-reserved by $4 billion to $5 billion industry-wide, necessitating continued aggressive pricing and underwriting actions through 2025 and 2026. Despite 14 consecutive years of rate increases—most in the upper single to double digits—pricing gains continue to lag severity trends, according to AM Best.

Among the top 20 commercial auto insurers, 14 posted combined ratios exceeding 100 in 2024, with the same number reporting underwriting losses in at least three of the past five years.

Obtain the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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