California Wildfires to Hit Bermuda Reinsurers Hard: Fitch

California wildfires will add pressure to Bermuda reinsurers' 2025 earnings despite strong capital positions and disciplined underwriting practices, the rating agency said.
By: | April 1, 2025

California wildfires are projected to significantly impact Bermuda reinsurers’ earnings in the first quarter of 2025, with Q1 losses from the fires representing approximately 60% of total 2024 catastrophe losses for these companies, according to Fitch Ratings.

While these losses will strain quarterly earnings, Fitch Ratings indicates that Bermuda companies’ ample capital levels should prevent any negative rating actions. Fitch’s report encompasses Arch Capital Group Ltd., Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd., AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd., Everest Group Ltd., Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd., PartnerRe Ltd., RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd., and SiriusPoint Ltd.

Looking beyond the first quarter, 2025 underwriting results are projected to deteriorate due to higher catastrophe losses and increasing pressure on premium rates, the rating agency said. Despite these challenges, Bermuda’s reinsurance sector is expected to remain profitable, primarily due to disciplined underwriting practices that have characterized Bermuda’s market in recent years, Fitch noted.

The California wildfires specifically are anticipated to have a meaningful effect on the 2025 combined ratio of Bermuda reinsurers, adding approximately 4 percentage points to this metric.

“This reflects the sizable 40%-50% share of the total industry loss expected to be assumed by the reinsurance sector given the more remote nature of the event loss,” Fitch noted.

Reinsurance Market Trends and 2024 Performance

January 2025 renewal data suggests the reinsurance market cycle has moved past its peak, with stable-to-softening pricing emerging as increased supply meets higher demand, according to Fitch. This marks a shift from the hardening market conditions that have benefited Bermuda reinsurers in recent years, it added.

The industry’s performance in 2024, while still profitable, showed signs of moderation compared to the exceptional results of 2023. Bermuda reinsurers posted a 90.7% combined ratio in 2024, with catastrophes contributing 6.4 percentage points, compared to a stronger 86.2% combined ratio in 2023, when catastrophes added just 3.6 percentage points. Similarly, return on equity declined to 17.8% in 2024 from 26.6% in 2023, Fitch reported.

Bermuda Market Results

Reserve releases, which have historically boosted profitability, diminished significantly in 2024. These releases decreased the 2024 aggregate combined ratio by only 0.1 percentage points, compared to 1.5 percentage points in 2023 and 2.4 percentage points in 2022.

Premium Growth and Capital Trends

Net premiums written are expected to rise at a lower rate in 2025 compared to the robust growth seen in 2024, Fitch stated. The Bermuda reinsurers experienced 14% growth in net premiums written during 2024, driven by rate increases and expansion across most business lines. Individual company performance varied considerably, with RenaissanceRe achieving a 33% surge in premiums primarily due to its Validus acquisition, while SiriusPoint experienced a 4% decline resulting from strategic exits and non-renewals, according to the report.

Financially, the sector strengthened its foundation in 2024, with shareholders’ equity growing by 16%. This increase was primarily driven by strong underwriting gains and higher investment income in the rising interest rate environment, Fitch noted.

View the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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