Claims

Preparing for Hail

Hailstorms present a growing threat, but insurers can minimize losses by studying storm data.
By: | November 2, 2016 • 7 min read

Hailstorms are expanding their geographic footprint in every direction.
In Texas, storms are striking as far south as San Antonio. While the city normally experiences one to five hailstorms per year — a moderate risk zone for hail — this year it had more than 30, according to data tracked by Liberty Mutual’s risk engineering arm.

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“Hail activity has also been expanding more into the North and Northeast,” said Arindam Samanta, director, product management and innovation at Verisk Insurance Solutions.

“We’ve noticed it becoming more of a problem in parts of Ohio, Illinois and Minnesota, outside of traditional hail-prone areas.”

As these areas become more developed, more properties are built in hail’s path, increasing claim frequency and severity.

Areas on the west and south sides of Oklahoma City, for example, have largely transformed from wheat fields to sprawling suburban communities in the last 10 years.

Arindam Samanta, director, product management and innovation, Verisk Insurance Solutions

Arindam Samanta, director, product management and innovation, Verisk Insurance Solutions

“We know that the weather patterns responsible for the formation of hail are fairly consistent over certain geographic areas — the Great Plains states, the Rocky Mountain West, parts of the Midwest — but over time the expansion and aerial coverage of cities and suburbs throughout these regions have increased, so the number of properties in the path of these damaging hailstorms will increase,” said Curtis McDonald, product manager, weather verification services, CoreLogic.

The type of storm has changed too. Smaller stones with diameters of less than 2 inches combined with higher velocity winds wreak different types of damage than larger, denser stones.

Hail typically smashes up roofs, siding, skylights and roof-mounted equipment like refrigeration units. In 2016, though, wrecked air conditioner coils have constituted roughly 30 percent of hail damages.

The smaller hailstones have an easier time getting into the coils — which are fragile and susceptible to damage — but are not heavy enough to significantly damage roofing materials and sturdier equipment.

The costs associated with hail damage have also risen due to the expensive repair and replacement of air conditioning units that are either too old or too new. For out-of-date equipment, there may no longer be parts available, while newer units must adhere to eco-friendly guidelines that elevate their price.

Many newer A/C units are also custom-built, especially for large commercial properties, so the replacement process is not only costly, but time-consuming.

Commercial property insurers can build a defense strategy by arming themselves with data, and there are plenty of ways to gather it.

“For 200-ton to 500-ton air conditioning units, it could take three to four months to get a new unit built and installed. And sometimes roof modifications are necessary during that process,” said Ralph Tiede, vice president, commercial insurance, and manager, property risk engineering, at Liberty Mutual.

“The business interruption impact can be significant, and that’s one piece of the puzzle that risk managers may not think about,” Tiede said.

If a storm strikes in the middle of a hot Texas summer, then the property may need to shut down completely while it waits for the new unit.

Data-Driven Defense

Commercial property insurers can build a defense strategy by arming themselves with data, and there are plenty of ways to gather it.

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The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IIBHS), a research organization funded by insurance companies, conducts storm simulations inside its massive laboratory in Chester County, S.C., firing lab-created hailstones from cannons into full-size buildings to study effects on roofing, siding and outdoor equipment.

The organization also conducts field testing using impact probes to analyze hailstone size and density, and radar to track weather patterns.

“The IIBHS supplies member companies [including Liberty Mutual] with the most up-to-date information. That’s critical, because otherwise we’d be left making risk mitigation recommendations to clients based on building codes that are years old and don’t reflect what’s happening today,” Tiede said.

Other analytics organizations provide similar real-time insights.

Verisk Analytics uses weather modeling and ground observations to complement its real-time weather monitoring data feed.

Ralph Tiede, vice president, commercial insurance, and manager, property risk engineering, at Liberty Mutual

Ralph Tiede, vice president, commercial insurance, and manager, property risk engineering, Liberty Mutual

“We use an extensive ground-based network, including dual-pol radars, which collect huge amounts of data on fast-moving storms every two to five minutes,” Samanta said. This helps to complete the picture of a property’s exposure and keep an accurate record of hail events.

Storm history, collated with industry-wide hail claims data, informs Verisk’s Hail Damage Score, which ranks a location on a scale from one to 10. Higher numbers indicate higher likelihood of exposure to past damaging hail events and the presence of pre-existing hail damage.

Such data can help insurers discern what to look for when conducting property inspections for potential new clients, and may lead them to decide that a location is too risky to underwrite.

112016_05_claims_hail_chartAnalytics firm CoreLogic also produces retrospective data using a proprietary forensic database that houses three years’ worth of storm data.

“At CoreLogic, we score properties based on the actual number of hail events that previously impacted it,” McDonald said. “It’s a tool underwriters can use when evaluating a new property or geographic area.”

But with hailstorms fanning into new regions and the resulting damage changing in nature, data based on past events may not suffice. Forward-looking probability metrics complete the risk picture.

“We’ll also run a 10,000-year simulation and look at the probability of hail 1 inch in diameter or greater impacting a specific property in the future,” McDonald said.

Other data points to consider are more property-specific: the types of building materials for roofing and siding, the number of roof-mounted equipment units and skylights, the age of the equipment, the current value of the building, and any mortgage or potential liens.

“High quality data is key in forming a basis for a view of risk in areas where it is still emerging,” Samanta of Verisk said.

Risk Mitigation

Hailstorm and property-specific data can aid insurers in multiple capacities, from initial assessments of a potential new client to risk mitigation recommendations to expeditious claims processing.

“We have specific guidelines for our engineers when they go out to do an assessment of a new building in an area prone to hailstorms and wind,” Tiede of Liberty Mutual said. “We will want them to look at specific things like the roof condition, roof-mounted equipment, and any maintenance programs in place.”

The engineers then report back to account managers, who use the information to customize pricing and deductible structures, and to develop specific risk mitigation recommendations.

“We built a proprietary hail tool where we’ll enter in all the property-specific data collected for us by our engineers, and it will show us the loss potential for that specific location.

“We pass that along to the account managers, who help clients develop and prioritize specific steps they can take to reduce their exposure,” Tiede said.

Recommendations can include installing factory-approved hail guards over air conditioning and heating units, replacing an old roof with stronger material, conducting regular roof maintenance and installing protection for skylights.

112016_05_claims_fact_chart

At about $250 each, “manufacturer-installed hail guards are a surprisingly inexpensive fix” that won’t compromise the unit’s efficiency, Tiede said.
Liberty Mutual’s tool also has the benefit of identifying customers who are doing their homework and have already taken steps to protect themselves.

“If we have a customer who is proactively taking these steps that could reduce loss expectancy, this might make them more attractive, which would likely be reflected in that risk’s pricing,” said Brent Chambers, underwriting consultant, national insurance property, Liberty Mutual.

“It’s a tool we can use to sharpen our quote.”

“Customers who are loss-conscious deserve some type of credit. If we can, we like to give them something back to demonstrate that we’re partners in this together,” Tiede said.

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Insurers can also use weather monitoring systems to send out alerts to clients sitting in a storm’s path, advising them of immediate steps they can take to limit damage and providing them with a claims contact if a loss occurs.

“If they suffer serious damage, they may not be able to get inside the building or get access to their files where they keep their insurance information,” said Chambers.

“We send them the claims intake phone number to call so they have it right in front of them if they need it.”

When insureds are warned and prepared, claims can be filed and resolved more quickly.

“Hailstorms aren’t going to stop, and in fact we’re going to see more and more of them,” Tiede said. “2016 saw a lot of hail damage — about 5,400 storms this year, and it’s a risk the whole industry is waking up to.” &

Katie Siegel is a staff writer at Risk & Insurance®. She can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

2017 RIMS

Resilience in Face of Cyber

New cyber model platforms will help insurers better manage aggregation risk within their books of business.
By: | April 26, 2017 • 3 min read

As insurers become increasingly concerned about the aggregation of cyber risk exposures in their portfolios, new tools are being developed to help them better assess and manage those exposures.

 One of those tools, a comprehensive cyber risk modeling application for the insurance and reinsurance markets, was announced on April 24 by AIR Worldwide.

Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide

Last year at RIMS, AIR announced the release of the industry’s first open source deterministic cyber risk scenario, subsequently releasing a series of scenarios throughout the year, and offering the service to insurers on a consulting basis.

Its latest release, ARC– Analytics of Risk from Cyber — continues that work by offering the modeling platform for license to insurance clients for internal use rather than on a consulting basis. ARC is separate from AIR’s Touchstone platform, allowing for more flexibility in the rapidly changing cyber environment.

ARC allows insurers to get a better picture of their exposures across an entire book of business, with the help of a comprehensive industry exposure database that combines data from multiple public and commercial sources.

The recent attacks on Dyn and Amazon Web Services (AWS) provide perfect examples of how the ARC platform can be used to enhance the industry’s resilience, said Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist for AIR Worldwide.

Stransky noted that insurers don’t necessarily have visibility into which of their insureds use Dyn, Amazon Web Services, Rackspace, or other common internet services providers.

In the Dyn and AWS events, there was little insured loss because the downtime fell largely just under policy waiting periods.

But,” said Stransky, “it got our clients thinking, well it happened for a few hours – could it happen for longer? And what does that do to us if it does? … This is really where our model can be very helpful.”

The purpose of having this model is to make the world more resilient … that’s really the goal.”Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide

AIR has run the Dyn incident through its model, with the parameters of a single day of downtime impacting the Fortune 1000. Then it did the same with the AWS event.

When we run Fortune 1000 for Dyn for one day, we get a half a billion dollars of loss,” said Stransky. “Taking it one step further – we’ve run the same exercise for AWS for one day, through the Fortune 1000 only, and the losses are about $3 billion.”

So once you expand it out to millions of businesses, the losses would be much higher,” he added.

The ARC platform allows insurers to assess cyber exposures including “silent cyber,” across the spectrum of business, be it D&O, E&O, general liability or property. There are 18 scenarios that can be modeled, with the capability to adjust variables broadly for a better handle on events of varying severity and scope.

Looking ahead, AIR is taking a closer look at what Stransky calls “silent silent cyber,” the complex indirect and difficult to assess or insure potential impacts of any given cyber event.

Stransky cites the 2014 hack of the National Weather Service website as an example. For several days after the hack, no satellite weather imagery was available to be fed into weather models.

Imagine there was a hurricane happening during the time there was no weather service imagery,” he said. “[So] the models wouldn’t have been as accurate; people wouldn’t have had as much advance warning; they wouldn’t have evacuated as quickly or boarded up their homes.”

It’s possible that the losses would be significantly higher in such a scenario, but there would be no way to quantify how much of it could be attributed to the cyber attack and how much was strictly the result of the hurricane itself.

It’s very, very indirect,” said Stransky, citing the recent hack of the Dallas tornado sirens as another example. Not only did the situation jam up the 911 system, potentially exacerbating any number of crisis events, but such a false alarm could lead to increased losses in the future.

The next time if there’s a real tornado, people make think, ‘Oh, its just some hack,’ ” he said. “So if there’s a real tornado, who knows what’s going to happen.”

Modeling for “silent silent cyber” remains elusive. But platforms like ARC are a step in the right direction for ensuring the continued health and strength of the insurance industry in the face of the ever-changing specter of cyber exposure.

Because we have this model, insurers are now able to manage the risks better, to be more resilient against cyber attacks, to really understand their portfolios,” said Stransky. “So when it does happen, they’ll be able to respond, they’ll be able to pay out the claims properly, they’ll be prepared.

The purpose of having this model is to make the world more resilient … that’s really the goal.”

Additional stories from RIMS 2017:

Blockchain Pros and Cons

If barriers to implementation are brought down, blockchain offers potential for financial institutions.

Embrace the Internet of Things

Risk managers can use IoT for data analytics and other risk mitigation needs, but connected devices also offer a multitude of exposures.

Feeling Unprepared to Deal With Risks

Damage to brand and reputation ranked as the top risk concern of risk managers throughout the world.

Reviewing Medical Marijuana Claims

Liberty Mutual appears to be the first carrier to create a workflow process for evaluating medical marijuana expense reimbursement requests.

Cyber Threat Will Get More Difficult

Companies should focus on response, resiliency and recovery when it comes to cyber risks.

RIMS Conference Held in Birthplace of Insurance in US

Carriers continue their vital role of helping insureds mitigate risks and promote safety.

Michelle Kerr is associate editor of Risk & Insurance. She can be reached at [email protected]