U.S. Labor Market Shows Signs of Acceleration, Pointing to Stronger Workers’ Comp Payrolls

The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May and job openings surged to their highest level since early 2024, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance.
By: | June 10, 2026
labor market data

May’s headline employment gain of 172,000 jobs was accompanied by upward revisions of 93,000 jobs to the prior two months, pushing the three-month average to 188,000 jobs added per month, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance’s June 2026 Labor Market Insights report.

NCCI noted that figure is the highest three-month average since early 2024 and approaches the pre-pandemic average of 191,000 monthly jobs. The trend carries direct implications for workers’ compensation exposures: calculated payroll growth, a primary driver of premium, rose 4.3% year over year in May, roughly in line with the one-year rolling average of 4.2%.

Employment Growth Broadens Across Key Sectors

The composition of May’s job gains showed wider participation across industries, according to NCCI’s report. Construction, leisure and hospitality, and local government posted strong gains, while health care continued its sustained expansion. The financial activities sector, which includes the insurance industry, saw continued employment declines. Other sectors were little changed.

Private-sector employment, the figure used to calculate payroll exposure for workers’ compensation purposes, rose by 120,000 in May, below the 172,000 total headline figure but still consistent with recent months. The one-year average for net private employment change stands at 56,000 per month, making May’s result more than double that pace.

Average hours worked held steady at 34.3 hours per week in May, unchanged from the prior month and in line with the three-year average. That stability, combined with employment growth, has kept the calculated payroll measure — total private employment multiplied by average hourly earnings and average hours worked — elevated. NCCI said that if recent employment and wage trends continue, payroll growth would be expected to accelerate through the end of the year.

Wage Growth Moderates but Payroll Pressure Persists

Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year over year in May, down from 3.9% as recently as November 2025 and below the one-year rolling average of 3.8%. NCCI observed that robust growth in new employees has likely put downward pressure on average hourly earnings. Even so, the report described wage growth as “solid.”

The combination of moderating wages and strong employment has kept total payroll growth elevated. At 4.3% year over year, May’s calculated payroll growth is roughly in line with the one-year average of 4.2% and compares with a 2015-19 pre-pandemic average of 4.6%. For workers’ compensation underwriters and the employers they insure, sustained payroll growth at these levels directly supports premium exposure.

Job Openings Surge, Raising Questions About Labor Demand Trajectory

One of the more closely watched data points in the report was April’s job openings figure, which surged unexpectedly to 7,618,000, the highest reading since early 2024 and well above the one-year average of 7,077,000. NCCI cautioned that this represents a single data point, but said a rise in labor demand could continue to support robust job growth and will be worth watching closely.

NCCI framed the broader shift in context: “The key labor market question in 2025 was whether the data showed stabilization or deterioration. In early 2026, the question appears to be shifting to whether the data shows stabilization or acceleration.”

Obtain the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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