Aviation Industry Faces Challenges in Long-Term Preparedness for Emerging Risks

WTW survey of 130 senior aviation leaders reveals only 29% believe their business models will be resilient to withstand emerging risks a decade from now.
By: | July 22, 2025
Topics: Aviation | News

While 55% of aviation organizations believe their business models can withstand today’s emerging risks, only 29% feel confident about their resilience to emerging challenges over the next decade, according to a WTW survey of global aviation executives’ perceptions of emerging risks.

Aviation leaders identified distinctly different emerging risk priorities depending on their time horizon, with artificial intelligence currently dominating concerns but cyber threats expected to take precedence two years from now, WTW found.

Currently, AI is the most frequently cited emerging risk, with 36% of aviation respondents including it among their top five concerns and 14% ranking it as their primary threat. Environmental risks follow closely, named by 29% of leaders among their top five risks, while supply chain disruptions round out the current top three at 26%.

However, this hierarchy transforms significantly when aviation executives look toward the future, the survey found.

Within two years, cyber threats are expected to dominate the emerging risk landscape for the aviation industry, with 44% of respondents placing it among their top five concerns and 19% identifying it as their primary driver of emerging risk. Supply chain issues were cited by 39% as a top-five emerging risk and 21% as the leading threat in two years, while 31% of respondents placed geopolitical risks in their top five risks, and 22% said it would be the top risk.

The 10-year outlook reveals an even more dramatic shift, with 74% indicating that technology will be a top source of emerging risks, and 65% identifying financial risks. Environmental and geopolitical concerns tie for third place at 50% each as sources of emerging risks for the aviation sector a decade from now.

Critical Knowledge and Preparedness Gaps

The survey revealed gaps in organizational preparedness, starting with fundamental definitions of emerging risk. A significant 85% of aviation leaders could not recall how their organizations define and prioritize emerging risks, including 80% of those who identify as key decision makers and 90% of those leading risk strategy implementation. Additionally, 49% didn’t know which specific emerging risks their companies identify as top priorities.

“Historically, the aviation sector has excelled in long-term planning and master planning. Decades-long strategies that accommodate fleet renewals, infrastructure development, technology adoption, and regulatory compliance have been in place, but we need to add a robust understanding of emerging risks if we are going to respond efficiently to the challenges ahead,” said John Rooley, CEO of Willis Aviation & Space.

These knowledge gaps extend beyond definitions to practical resources needed for risk management, WTW found. Sixty percent of aviation leaders believe they lack access to insights necessary for understanding and acting on emerging risks, while 80% report insufficient access to data and models needed to comprehend these threats. Perhaps most concerning, 70% don’t believe they have access to appropriate insurance and risk transfer solutions to protect their investments, the survey found.

Strategic Realignment Becomes Industry Imperative

The decline in confidence over a 10-year horizon signals that nearly 70% of aviation organizations recognize their current approach to emerging risks requires fundamental changes, according to the report.

While nearly a third of respondents are confident that their organizations would not need to change their risk strategy to be resilient to emerging risks over the next decade, WTW cautioned this might prove challenging given the “myriad of evolving risks” facing the aviation industry.

The report suggested that aviation companies must develop more sophisticated risk identification and prioritization frameworks while building capabilities to understand risk interconnections. Organizations that can effectively bridge the gap between traditional planning excellence and emerging risk management may gain competitive advantages in an increasingly complex operating environment.

“The aviation industry operates on the cusp of risk, both in terms of the environment that aircraft operate in or the threats and opportunities created by AI, geopolitics or the environment represent, as well as the regulatory frameworks that can accompany them,” the report said. “The industry and its risk-management partners need to work together to define, manage and, where possible, mitigate risk to ensure that the industry maintains its resilience.”

Obtain the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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