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3 Requirements for Fast-Tracking Machine Learning at Insurance Organizations

Predictive and prescriptive models can help insurers make smarter decisions faster, but implementation is stymied by lack of direction, legacy systems, and fear. This plan can help.
By: | March 6, 2019 • 6 min read

Machine learning is one of those buzzwords not everyone understands. It involves artificial intelligence (AI) … but what does that really mean in the context of an insurance company built on old IT networks and an even older set of ingrained processes?

“Machine learning is an approach to AI that gives a computer system the ability to obtain their own knowledge by extracting patterns from data instead of relying on hard-coded knowledge. In business, machine learning can help you predict what operational decisions will lead to an optimal outcome such as maximizing profitability based on the decisions you have made in the past. As more decisions are made and more data is collected, the algorithm continues to learn and make better predictions over time,” said Sean Naismith, Head of Analytics Services at Enova Decisions.

There are a multitude of operational decisions that feed the insurance process. What is an applicant’s exposure? What premium is competitive yet mitigates risk? Is a claim legitimate and compensable?

“At most insurance companies, decision-making is manual . Machine learning enables humans to offload some of the more repetitive yet complex decisions or helps them make more informed decisions. ” Naismith said.

Applications of machine learning include more precise risk classification and pricing, earlier fraud detection, and more efficient claims management.

But machine learning adoption among insurers remains slow. A lack of understanding is one challenge. Senior leaders can’t buy in without a clear use case and quantifiable ROI.

Lack of infrastructure is another. Not only do machine learning models need high availability deployment, but models also need access to clean, multidimensional data in real-time.

Lack of transparency is a third challenge. Without a means for explaining how machine learning models are making predictions, insurers are putting themselves at risk of being in noncompliance (e.g. discriminating against protected classes)

All of these challenges can be overcome, however, with the right planning. Here’s how insurers can fast-track machine learning at their organizations:

1. Build a use case around a specific decision.

Sean Naismith, Head of Analytics Services at Enova Decisions

“Most businesses make the mistake of starting with data when they should be starting with decisions,” Naismith said. “Prioritize those that have the greatest impact on business objectives.”

For example, an insurer’s objective may be to increase net income by 20%. Decisions that drive net income include risk classification, coverage, and price.

“Once you’ve identified the decisions you want to optimize, you need to determine what questions need to be answered in order to make those decisions and what information you need to answer those questions,” Naismith said. “Then, you’ll know exactly which machine learning models you need to build and what data you will need to train them.”

Back to the earlier example, a decision flow could be built using machine learning models to predict the optimal price that would maximize probability of acceptance while balancing probability of exposure based on historical performance to achieve the goal of increasing net income by 20%.

Those that define a specific use case and success metrics around business objectives will have an easier time getting executive buy-in for investment.

2. Leverage cloud computing to overcome infrastructure challenges.

“Implementing machine learning is complicated. There are many great analytics platforms out there that enable data scientists to build machine learning models. However, most IT teams aren’t equipped with the right tools and skills to get a machine learning model into production for real-time use,” Naismith said.

Even businesses that are more advanced in their digital transformation may only have the ability to automate simple business rules. Gartner’s 2019 survey (paywall) of insurance industry CIOs determined that many “still are building out the foundation for analytics and face legacy system challenges that will need to be overcome in the next couple of years.”

A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Enova Decisions likewise found that although nearly 80 percent of business leaders believe automation of operational decisions is important, only 22 percent are very satisfied with their decisioning software today.

The time, resources, and cost required to build machine learning deployment capabilities is not feasible for many businesses. Not to mention what’s required for ongoing maintenance and security management. This is why Naismith believes partnering with a reputable cloud computing vendor is the sensible approach.

“If you leverage a cloud-based decision management software or platform as a service provider, you mitigate the need for additional infrastructure. The vendor will manage all those data connections,  deployment of machine learning models with high availability, and ongoing IT maintenance,” Naismith said.  “Plus, ‘as-a-service’ enables you to pay for what you need with minimal upfront cost.”

3. Create transparency around decision-making.

“Stakeholders will be hesitant to use machine learning if they don’t understand how decisions are being made, no matter how accurate the model’s predictions are,” Naismith. “There’s too much risk involved, especially in highly-regulated industries. For example, a model may be inadvertently discriminating against age, gender, or any other protected class.”

Here lies the paradox: How can businesses explain what’s happening in a black box? Fortunately, there are new techniques like SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) being developed to help data scientists interpret the predictions being made by machine learning models. Explainable machine learning is a highly active area of research. As progress is made, insurers will need to be less concerned with balancing complexity and presumably accuracy with transparency.  Regardless whether the machine learning model is built in-house or purchased, insurance companies must ensure that explanations are being captured alongside every decision. In addition, models deteriorate over time. Therefore ongoing monitoring and management is necessary so no bias creeps in. One way to do this is to routinely compare model output of protected classes to the rest of the population., Naismith believes. “Significant variations in the prediction distribution of your customers of a particular subclass from that of the general population should trigger an investigation of your model.”

Fast-Track Machine Learning with Enova Decisions

Enova Decisions is a leading analytics and decision management technology company that’s been “eating its own dog food” for over 14 years. “We were created to make the analytics and real-time decisioning expertise that has powered our parent company accessible to businesses like insurance companies,” said Naismith. Enova Decisions is part of Enova International, a publicly traded financial services company (NYSE:ENVA) that has extended over 22 billion dollars in credit online to over 5 million customers worldwide.

“We take a decision-first approach to analytics,” Naismith said. “We use decision model and notation (DMN) to help our clients conceptually understand how they’re currently making decisions and where opportunities for improvement are. We have a team of decision scientists that can tailor machine learning models in a regulatory compliant manner for the defined specific use cases. Those models can then be deployed directly from our cloud-based platform. In a nutshell, our decision management software and services are designed to manage the complexity of decision automation and optimization so that our clients can focus on servicing their customers well.”

To learn more, visit https://www.enovadecisions.com/insurance/.



This article was produced by the R&I Brand Studio, a unit of the advertising department of Risk & Insurance, in collaboration with Enova Decisions. The editorial staff of Risk & Insurance had no role in its preparation.

Enova Decisions is an analytics and decision management technology company that was formed in 2016 to enable businesses including financial services, healthcare, and telecommunications automate and optimize operational decisions through machine learning in real-time and at scale. For more information, visit www.enovadecisions.com.

Exclusive | Hank Greenberg on China Trade, Starr’s Rapid Growth and 100th, Spitzer, Schneiderman and More

In a robust and frank conversation, the insurance legend provides unique insights into global trade, his past battles and what the future holds for the industry and his company.
By: | October 12, 2018 • 12 min read

In 1960, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg was hired as a vice president of C.V. Starr & Co. At age 35, he had already accomplished a great deal.

He served his country as part of the Allied Forces that stormed the beaches at Normandy and liberated the Nazi death camps. He fought again during the Korean War, earning a Bronze Star. He held a law degree from New York Law School.


Now he was ready to make his mark on the business world.

Even C.V. Starr himself — who hired Mr. Greenberg and later hand-picked him as the successor to the company he founded in Shanghai in 1919 — could not have imagined what a mark it would be.

Mr. Greenberg began to build AIG as a Starr subsidiary, then in 1969, he took it public. The company would, at its peak, achieve a market cap of some $180 billion and cement its place as the largest insurance and financial services company in history.

This month, Mr. Greenberg travels to China to celebrate the 100th anniversary of C.V. Starr & Co. That visit occurs at a prickly time in U.S.-Sino relations, as the Trump administration levies tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese goods and China retaliates.

In September, Risk & Insurance® sat down with Mr. Greenberg in his Park Avenue office to hear his thoughts on the centennial of C.V. Starr, the dynamics of U.S. trade relationships with China and the future of the U.S. insurance industry as it faces the challenges of technology development and talent recruitment and retention, among many others. What follows is an edited transcript of that discussion.

R&I: One hundred years is quite an impressive milestone for any company. Celebrating the anniversary in China signifies the importance and longevity of that relationship. Can you tell us more about C.V. Starr’s history with China?

Hank Greenberg: We have a long history in China. I first went there in 1975. There was little there, but I had business throughout Asia, and I stopped there all the time. I’d stop there a couple of times a year and build relationships.

When I first started visiting China, there was only one state-owned insurance company there, PICC (the People’s Insurance Company of China); it was tiny at the time. We helped them to grow.

I also received the first foreign life insurance license in China, for AIA (The American International Assurance Co.). To date, there has been no other foreign life insurance company in China. It took me 20 years of hard work to get that license.

We also introduced an agency system in China. They had none. Their life company employees would get a salary whether they sold something or not. With the agency system of course you get paid a commission if you sell something. Once that agency system was installed, it went on to create more than a million jobs.

R&I: So Starr’s success has meant success for the Chinese insurance industry as well.

Hank Greenberg: That’s partly why we’re going to be celebrating that anniversary there next month. That celebration will occur alongside that of IBLAC (International Business Leaders’ Advisory Council), an international business advisory group that was put together when Zhu Rongji was the mayor of Shanghai [Zhu is since retired from public life]. He asked me to start that to attract foreign companies to invest in Shanghai.

“It turns out that it is harder [for China] to change, because they have one leader. My guess is that we’ll work it out sooner or later. Trump and Xi have to meet. That will result in some agreement that will get to them and they will have to finish the rest of the negotiations. I believe that will happen.” — Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, chairman and CEO, C.V. Starr & Co. Inc.

Shanghai and China in general were just coming out of the doldrums then; there was a lack of foreign investment. Zhu asked me to chair IBLAC and to help get it started, which I did. I served as chairman of that group for a couple of terms. I am still a part of that board, and it will be celebrating its 30th anniversary along with our 100th anniversary.


We have a good relationship with China, and we’re candid as you can tell from the op-ed I published in the Wall Street Journal. I’m told that my op-ed was received quite well in China, by both Chinese companies and foreign companies doing business there.

On August 29, Mr. Greenberg published an opinion piece in the WSJ reminding Chinese leaders of the productive history of U.S.-Sino relations and suggesting that Chinese leaders take pragmatic steps to ease trade tensions with the U.S.

R&I: What’s your outlook on current trade relations between the U.S. and China?

Hank Greenberg: As to the current environment, when you are in negotiations, every leader negotiates differently.

President Trump is negotiating based on his well-known approach. What’s different now is that President Xi (Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China) made himself the emperor. All the past presidents in China before the revolution had two terms. He’s there for life, which makes things much more difficult.

R&I: Sure does. You’ve got a one- or two-term president talking to somebody who can wait it out. It’s definitely unique.

Hank Greenberg: So, clearly a lot of change is going on in China. Some of it is good. But as I said in the op-ed, China needs to be treated like the second largest economy in the world, which it is. And it will be the number one economy in the world in not too many years. That means that you can’t use the same terms of trade that you did 25 or 30 years ago.

They want to have access to our market and other markets. Fine, but you have to have reciprocity, and they have not been very good at that.

R&I: What stands in the way of that happening?

Hank Greenberg: I think there are several substantial challenges. One, their structure makes it very difficult. They have a senior official, a regulator, who runs a division within the government for insurance. He keeps that job as long as he does what leadership wants him to do. He may not be sure what they want him to do.

For example, the president made a speech many months ago saying they are going to open up banking, insurance and a couple of additional sectors to foreign investment; nothing happened.

The reason was that the head of that division got changed. A new administrator came in who was not sure what the president wanted so he did nothing. Time went on and the international community said, “Wait a minute, you promised that you were going to do that and you didn’t do that.”

So the structure is such that it is very difficult. China can’t react as fast as it should. That will change, but it is going to take time.

R&I: That’s interesting, because during the financial crisis in 2008 there was talk that China, given their more centralized authority, could react more quickly, not less quickly.

Hank Greenberg: It turns out that it is harder to change, because they have one leader. My guess is that we’ll work it out sooner or later. Trump and Xi have to meet. That will result in some agreement that will get to them and they will have to finish the rest of the negotiations. I believe that will happen.

R&I: Obviously, you have a very unique perspective and experience in China. For American companies coming to China, what are some of the current challenges?


Hank Greenberg: Well, they very much want to do business in China. That’s due to the sheer size of the country, at 1.4 billion people. It’s a very big market and not just for insurance companies. It’s a whole range of companies that would like to have access to China as easily as Chinese companies have access to the United States. As I said previously, that has to be resolved.

It’s not going to be easy, because China has a history of not being treated well by other countries. The U.S. has been pretty good in that way. We haven’t taken advantage of China.

R&I: Your op-ed was very enlightening on that topic.

Hank Greenberg: President Xi wants to rebuild the “middle kingdom,” to what China was, a great country. Part of that was his takeover of the South China Sea rock islands during the Obama Administration; we did nothing. It’s a little late now to try and do something. They promised they would never militarize those islands. Then they did. That’s a real problem in Southern Asia. The other countries in that region are not happy about that.

R&I: One thing that has differentiated your company is that it is not a public company, and it is not a mutual company. We think you’re the only large insurance company with that structure at that scale. What advantages does that give you?

Hank Greenberg: Two things. First of all, we’re more than an insurance company. We have the traditional investment unit with the insurance company. Then we have a separate investment unit that we started, which is very successful. So we have a source of income that is diverse. We don’t have to underwrite business that is going to lose a lot of money. Not knowingly anyway.

R&I: And that’s because you are a private company?

Hank Greenberg: Yes. We attract a different type of person in a private company.

R&I: Do you think that enables you to react more quickly?

Hank Greenberg: Absolutely. When we left AIG there were three of us. Myself, Howie Smith and Ed Matthews. Howie used to run the internal financials and Ed Matthews was the investment guy coming out of Morgan Stanley when I was putting AIG together. We started with three people and now we have 3,500 and growing.

“I think technology can play a role in reducing operating expenses. In the last 70 years, you have seen the expense ratio of the industry rise, and I’m not sure the industry can afford a 35 percent expense ratio. But while technology can help, some additional fundamental changes will also be required.” — Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, chairman and CEO, C.V. Starr & Co. Inc.

R&I:  You being forced to leave AIG in 2005 really was an injustice, by the way. AIG wouldn’t have been in the position it was in 2008 if you had still been there.


Hank Greenberg: Absolutely not. We had all the right things in place. We met with the financial services division once a day every day to make sure they stuck to what they were supposed to do. Even Hank Paulson, the Secretary of Treasury, sat on the stand during my trial and said that if I’d been at the company, it would not have imploded the way it did.

R&I: And that fateful decision the AIG board made really affected the course of the country.

Hank Greenberg: So many people lost all of their net worth. The new management was taking on billions of dollars’ worth of risk with no collateral. They had decimated the internal risk management controls. And the government takeover of the company when the financial crisis blew up was grossly unfair.

From the time it went public, AIG’s value had increased from $300 million to $180 billion. Thanks to Eliot Spitzer, it’s now worth a fraction of that. His was a gross misuse of the Martin Act. It gives the Attorney General the power to investigate without probable cause and bring fraud charges without having to prove intent. Only in New York does the law grant the AG that much power.

R&I: It’s especially frustrating when you consider the quality of his own character, and the scandal he was involved in.

In early 2008, Spitzer was caught on a federal wiretap arranging a meeting with a prostitute at a Washington Hotel and resigned shortly thereafter.

Hank Greenberg: Yes. And it’s been successive. Look at Eric Schneiderman. He resigned earlier this year when it came out that he had abused several women. And this was after he came out so strongly against other men accused of the same thing. To me it demonstrates hypocrisy and abuse of power.

Schneiderman followed in Spitzer’s footsteps in leveraging the Martin Act against numerous corporations to generate multi-billion dollar settlements.

R&I: Starr, however, continues to thrive. You said you’re at 3,500 people and still growing. As you continue to expand, how do you deal with the challenge of attracting talent?

Hank Greenberg: We did something last week.

On September 16th, St. John’s University announced the largest gift in its 148-year history. The Starr Foundation donated $15 million to the school, establishing the Maurice R. Greenberg Leadership Initiative at St. John’s School of Risk Management, Insurance and Actuarial Science.

Hank Greenberg: We have recruited from St. John’s for many, many years. These are young people who want to be in the insurance industry. They don’t get into it by accident. They study to become proficient in this and we have recruited some very qualified individuals from that school. But we also recruit from many other universities. On the investment side, outside of the insurance industry, we also recruit from Wall Street.

R&I: We’re very interested in how you and other leaders in this industry view technology and how they’re going to use it.

Hank Greenberg: I think technology can play a role in reducing operating expenses. In the last 70 years, you have seen the expense ratio of the industry rise, and I’m not sure the industry can afford a 35 percent expense ratio. But while technology can help, some additional fundamental changes will also be required.

R&I: So as the pre-eminent leader of the insurance industry, what do you see in terms of where insurance is now and where it’s going?

Hank Greenberg: The country and the world will always need insurance. That doesn’t mean that what we have today is what we’re going to have 25 years from now.

How quickly the change comes and how far it will go will depend on individual companies and individual countries. Some will be more brave than others. But change will take place, there is no doubt about it.


More will go on in space, there is no question about that. We’re involved in it right now as an insurance company, and it will get broader.

One of the things you have to worry about is it’s now a nuclear world. It’s a more dangerous world. And again, we have to find some way to deal with that.

So, change is inevitable. You need people who can deal with change.

R&I:  Is there anything else, Mr. Greenberg, you want to comment on?

Hank Greenberg: I think I’ve covered it. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected]