U.S. Insurers Face Increasing Ratings Downgrades

Amid economic headwinds and shifting risks, U.S. insurers face diverging credit rating trends across key market segment, AM Best reports.
By: | September 12, 2024
Topics: News
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The U.S. insurance industry experienced a 52% increase in credit rating downgrades in 2023 over 2022, with personal lines carriers driving the trend, according to a report by rating agency AM Best.

In 2023, the number of issuer credit rating (ICR) downgrades exceeded upgrades, with 64 downgrades compared to 45 upgrades. This represents a significant shift from 2022, when there were 42 downgrades and 55 upgrades.

“Some of the factors driving these rating actions are cyclical in nature, while others reflect a more permanent shift in operating conditions,” said David Lopes, senior industry analyst at AM Best. “Worsening economic and social inflation, as well as rising operating and loss costs are also among the factors at play.”

Notably, the rating trends have diverged between insurance segments, with personal lines carriers experiencing more downgrades while commercial lines insurers have seen more upgrades. Companies domiciled in catastrophe-prone states like California, Florida, and Texas have been particularly impacted, accounting for over a quarter of downgrades in the past three years.

Challenges for Personal Lines Insurers

The personal lines segment accounts for 43% of issuer credit rating (ICR) downgrades over the last three years. In 2023, personal lines insurers had 35 downgrades versus just seven upgrades in 2023.

Personal lines insurers are currently navigating “the perfect storm of elevated catastrophe losses, secondary perils, reinsurance pricing increases leading to greater business retention, inflation, and regulatory hurdles,” according to AM Best.

Given the ongoing regulatory, risk-related, and macroeconomic headwinds, a return to underwriting profitability for personal lines insurers is unlikely in the near term, Best said.

Opportunities for Commercial Lines Insurers

In the commercial lines segment, upgrades continued to outnumber downgrades, with 17 upgrades in 2023 vs. 14 downgrades.

“Despite volatility, the segment accounted for the largest share of upgrades over the last three years, although the number fell in 2023, while the number of downgrades rose,” Best noted.

Commercial casualty insurers accounted for nearly a quarter of commercial lines downgrades over the last three years.

“Social inflation and litigation financing pose challenges for casualty insurers, which have responded by seeking rate increases while tightening terms and conditions,” Best stated.

Shifting Geographic Risks

Secondary perils such as wildfires, tornados, and severe thunderstorms have become more common in non-traditional areas like the West, South, Southeast, and Great Lakes regions, shifting geographic risk exposures for property insurers.

Companies domiciled in Florida, California, and Texas have accounted for more than a quarter (27%) of downgrades over the last three years, driven largely by personal lines carriers.

Single state and regional companies are seeing greater risks in these areas, accounting for a significant share of downgrades. Over the last three years, single state companies accounted for over 28% of downgrades, while companies writing business in six states or fewer accounted for 60%, Best data showed.

Solutions and Recommendations to Address Trends

“Many carriers continue to pursue rate adequacy in response to rising loss severity, but staying ahead of current trends has been challenging,” Best commented.

Maintaining a strong balance sheet and robust capitalization is crucial for insurance companies to navigate the operational and market challenges they face, especially for smaller insurers. In fact, balance sheet strength assessments accounted for nearly half of all rating methodology changes over the last three years, according to AM Best.

By focusing on balance sheet strength, utilizing risk management tools like catastrophe bonds and reinsurance, and leveraging the benefits of different company structures, insurers can position themselves to better handle the trends and challenges impacting the industry, the rating agency stated.

Obtain the full report here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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