California Workers’ Comp Market Experiences Modest Premium Growth, Flattening Rates

California workers' comp market sees modest premium growth, flattening rates, and evolving loss ratios amid pandemic recovery.
By: | October 30, 2024
Topics: News | Workers' Comp

California’s workers’ compensation insurance market is seeing modest premium growth, a halt in rate declines, and changes in loss ratios due to COVID-19 claims and increasing severity trends, according to a report from the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California (WCRIB).

Written premium for workers’ compensation insurance in California grew modestly in 2023 compared to 2022, as payroll growth outpaced the impact of continued moderate insurer rate decreases. However, the first six months of 2024 saw a 2% decline in written premium compared to the same period in 2023, the report noted.

The average charged rate had been steadily declining prior to 2024, hitting a historical low in 2023. But the preliminary average charged rate for 2024, based on data from the first six months, is 2% higher than 2023.

In its September 1, 2024 Pure Premium Rate Filing, the WCIRB proposed an average 0.9% increase in advisory pure premium rates. However, in the Filing Decision, the Insurance Commissioner approved an average 2.1% decrease in those advisory rates.

Claim Frequency and Severity Trends

After five consecutive increases, the projected workers’ compensation loss ratio in California, including the cost of COVID-19 claims, has flattened since accident year 2022, the report stated. This leveling off has been driven by rising payrolls and very modest changes in claim frequency and severity.

However, the declining impact of the pandemic and increasing severity trends are expected to result in a small uptick in the loss ratio for accident year 2023.

The projected combined ratio, which also accounts for expenses, has followed a similar pattern. Following five straight increases through 2021, the combined ratio declined by 6 points in 2022 due to lower loss and expense ratios, according to the report. However, in 2023, the combined ratio is projected to increase by 4 points as growth in average claim severities outpaces premium increases.

The pandemic has also had a notable impact on claims settlement patterns. Average claim closing rates fell sharply beginning in the second quarter of 2020. While these rates have stabilized from 2022 through 2024, they remain below the levels seen prior to the onset of COVID-19, WCIRB noted.

In terms of claim frequency, the workers’ comp system experienced dramatic swings in 2020 and 2021 that were driven by the pandemic-induced recession and subsequent recovery. More recently, indemnity claim frequency changes in 2022, 2023 and the first half of 2024 have been much more modest and comparable to the pre-pandemic period, the report stated.

Medical Cost Trends

The growth in paid medical services per claim in 2021 and 2022 can be partially attributed to higher fee schedule reimbursement levels implemented in early 2021 for certain services, including evaluation and management and medical legal services.

While paid per transaction amounts increased in 2022 and 2023 due to inflationary adjustments to medical fee schedules, the number of transactions per claim declined in 2023, following a pattern similar to 2022 and the pre-pandemic years, according to the report.

Pharmaceutical costs per California workers’ compensation claim have plummeted by a remarkable 88% from 2012 through 2023. This substantial decrease was driven by a combination of reforms and guidelines, including the implementation of independent medical review, reductions in spinal surgeries and opioid use, federal pricing guidelines for generic drugs, and the introduction of a new drug formulary.

After a temporary increase during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, average pharmaceutical costs per claim resumed their pre-pandemic downward trend, declining by an additional 10% in 2023.

The WCIRB projects ultimate losses for accident years 2005 through 2023 that are consistently lower than the amounts reported by insurers. Notably, the gap between WCIRB’s projected losses and insurer-reported losses has more than halved from 2017 to 2023, indicating an improving alignment between the two figures.

Access the full report’s findings here. &

The R&I Editorial Team can be reached at [email protected].

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