Risk Insider: Martin Frappolli

The Future of Motoring

By: | March 15, 2017 • 3 min read
Martin J. Frappolli, CPCU, FIDM, AIC, is Senior Director of Knowledge Resources at The Institutes, and editor of the organization's new “Managing Cyber Risk” textbook. He can be reached at [email protected]

The advent of driverless cars on demand, such as an autonomous Uber, might reduce the total number of cars on the road by 90 percent. Take that statistic and imagine that you are Ford, Toyota, CarMax or Midas.  You have a big chunk of a big market.  What happens to your financial future if the market shrinks by 90 percent?

However, even as the car count falls, the total number of miles driven may actually increase.  When human error is removed from motoring, accidents are eliminated and traffic jams minimized with the choreography of movement by autonomous vehicles. Passengers may willingly accept longer journeys and commutes because the ride is smooth, stress-free and presents no demand to stay engaged with the road.

Advertisement




How many miles do you put on your car annually? The average American drives less than 15,000 miles each year; our cars are idle most of the time. The main reason that autonomous cars on demand will permit such a reduction in car count is that autonomous vehicles will be in much more frequent use.

A car will pick you up and take you to work, then pick up some children to go to school, then take some seniors to the mall, then deliver some packages for Amazon.

By some estimates, the future driverless Lyft car or ZipCar will cover ground at a rate approaching 300,000 miles each year. Without some dramatic advance in the durability of vehicle engines and suspension parts, an autonomous on-demand car will be used up in less than a year.

What is the downstream implication for car insurers?  At first blush, it looked grim.

So for carmakers, the total product demand may not change much at all. One might expect, though, that the shell of the car — doors, hood, trunk — might be reclaimed and outfitted with new power trains and suspensions, and put back on the road.

What is the downstream implication for car insurers?  At first blush, it looked grim. Auto insurance is, after all, primarily about financial compensation for damage resulting from human error. When you remove human error, the accident rate should plummet. When you reduce the car count by 90 percent, it would seem that the total market size also shrinks dramatically.

However, if the annual miles for each vehicle is 300,000 instead of 15,000, the exposure is dramatically larger. And for the transition period when the roads will be shared by cars with human operators and autonomous cars (whether owned individually or part of an on-demand fleet), collisions won’t entirely vanish.

In the long run, it’s all very promising for human safety, convenience and for the environment; cars can be made lighter and smaller when there is no need to make them crash-proof. Established carmakers may have time to adjust as we move from an ownership model to an on-demand streaming model, much as consumers have already done with music and movies.

Advertisement




But at some future point, human error will be eliminated from motoring. We will look back on the first 125 years of the automobile as a brutal and primitive time, and wonder how we endured the carnage inflicted by human operators.

Auto insurers need to prepare to transition to that future. Accidents will be rare, and it’s probable that autos will be owned less by individuals and more by commercial firms operating fleets of autonomous cars on demand.

Not only will exposures be dramatically different, but all the data and skills we now use to underwrite auto will be obsolete. No crystal ball has a perfect vision of this future, but every auto insurer should be studying and planning for it.

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Risk Management

The Profession

Verizon’s risk manager David Cammarata loves when his team can make a real impact on the bottom line.
By: | May 2, 2017 • 4 min read

R&I: What was your first job?

I was a financial analyst with the N.J. Casino Control Commission.

R&I: How did you come to work in risk management?

I was told at a Christmas luncheon in 2003 that I was being promoted into a new job.

R&I: What is the risk management community doing right?

Advertisement




I think the risk management community is getting a lot better at utilizing big data and analytics to manage risk. Significant improvements have been made, but there is still much more room for improvement.

R&I: What could the risk management community be doing a better job of?

I think that the insurance and brokerage communities need to really start thinking about what this industry is going to look like in 10 years. They need to start addressing how they are going to remain relevant. I think that major disruptions to existing business models will occur and that these disruptions combined with innovation and technological advances may catch many of today’s industry leaders by surprise.

David Cammarata, assistant treasurer, risk management and insurance, Verizon Communications Inc.

R&I: What was the best location and year for the RIMS conference and why?

San Diego, any year.

R&I: What’s been the biggest change in the risk management and insurance industry since you’ve been in it?

I think the advent of cyber risk and cyber insurance. For several years it has been, and it continues to be, the main topic of discussion at industry meetings.

R&I: What emerging commercial risk most concerns you?

Advertisement




Advertisement




I think the most scary scenarios include a nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological event, a widespread global health epidemic and/or a widespread state sponsored cyber shutdown.

R&I: How much business do you do direct versus going through a broker?

We do almost all of our business through a broker.

R&I: Is the contingent commission controversy overblown?

No. It’s a conflict.

R&I: Are you optimistic about the U.S. economy or pessimistic and why?

Optimistic because hopefully President Trump’s policies (lower taxes and less regulation) will be pro-business and good for the economy.

R&I: Who is your mentor and why?

My dad, who passed away many years ago. He was very influential during the formative years of my career. He taught me how important integrity and reputation were to your brand and he had a very strong work ethic.

R&I: What have you accomplished that you are proudest of?

I would have to say raising two awesome kids. My daughter is graduating from James Madison University this year as co-valedictorian. My son is finishing his sophomore year at Rutgers and has near perfect grades. But more importantly, both of my kids have turned out to be really good people.

R&I: How many emails do you get in a day?

A lot.

“I love it when the risk management organization is able to contribute in a way that makes a real impact to the corporation’s overall objectives. On several occasions we have been able to make real contributions to the bottom line.”

R&I: What is your favorite book or movie?

“My Cousin Vinny.” That movie makes me laugh no matter how many times I watch it.

R&I: What’s the best restaurant you’ve ever eaten at?

Advertisement




Advertisement




My dad used to take me to a place called Chick & Nello’s. It was an Italian place that did not have a menu. They came to your table and told you the two or three items they were making that day. The food was out of this world.

R&I: What is your favorite drink?

Iced tea. The non-alcoholic kind.

R&I: What is the most unusual/interesting place you have ever visited?

I can think of several places but for me it would be a tie between India and Italy. India just has such a different culture and way of life and Rome has breathtaking historical sites.

R&I: What is the riskiest activity you ever engaged in?

Well, one of the best thrill rides I’ve been on was Kingda Ka at Great Adventure. It feels risky but probably isn’t all that risky. I flew in a prop plane with my brother-in-law one time … that felt kind of risky. I have also parasailed, does that count? I think it definitely has to be driving on the N.J. Turnpike day in and day out.

R&I: If the world has a modern hero, who is it and why?

Advertisement




What about the Fukushima 50? I don’t think I could have done what they did.

R&I: What about this work do you find the most fulfilling or rewarding?

I love it when the risk management organization is able to contribute in a way that makes a real impact to the corporation’s overall objectives. On several occasions we have been able to make real contributions to the bottom line.

R&I: What do your friends and family think you do?

I don’t think they really know. My children see me as dad; others just see me as an executive with Verizon.




Katie Siegel is a staff writer at Risk & Insurance®. She can be reached at [email protected]