Risk Insider: Martin Frappolli

The Future of Motoring

By: | March 15, 2017 • 3 min read
Martin J. Frappolli, CPCU, FIDM, AIC, is Senior Director of Knowledge Resources at The Institutes, and editor of the organization's new “Managing Cyber Risk” textbook. He can be reached at [email protected]

The advent of driverless cars on demand, such as an autonomous Uber, might reduce the total number of cars on the road by 90 percent. Take that statistic and imagine that you are Ford, Toyota, CarMax or Midas.  You have a big chunk of a big market.  What happens to your financial future if the market shrinks by 90 percent?

However, even as the car count falls, the total number of miles driven may actually increase.  When human error is removed from motoring, accidents are eliminated and traffic jams minimized with the choreography of movement by autonomous vehicles. Passengers may willingly accept longer journeys and commutes because the ride is smooth, stress-free and presents no demand to stay engaged with the road.

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How many miles do you put on your car annually? The average American drives less than 15,000 miles each year; our cars are idle most of the time. The main reason that autonomous cars on demand will permit such a reduction in car count is that autonomous vehicles will be in much more frequent use.

A car will pick you up and take you to work, then pick up some children to go to school, then take some seniors to the mall, then deliver some packages for Amazon.

By some estimates, the future driverless Lyft car or ZipCar will cover ground at a rate approaching 300,000 miles each year. Without some dramatic advance in the durability of vehicle engines and suspension parts, an autonomous on-demand car will be used up in less than a year.

What is the downstream implication for car insurers?  At first blush, it looked grim.

So for carmakers, the total product demand may not change much at all. One might expect, though, that the shell of the car — doors, hood, trunk — might be reclaimed and outfitted with new power trains and suspensions, and put back on the road.

What is the downstream implication for car insurers?  At first blush, it looked grim. Auto insurance is, after all, primarily about financial compensation for damage resulting from human error. When you remove human error, the accident rate should plummet. When you reduce the car count by 90 percent, it would seem that the total market size also shrinks dramatically.

However, if the annual miles for each vehicle is 300,000 instead of 15,000, the exposure is dramatically larger. And for the transition period when the roads will be shared by cars with human operators and autonomous cars (whether owned individually or part of an on-demand fleet), collisions won’t entirely vanish.

In the long run, it’s all very promising for human safety, convenience and for the environment; cars can be made lighter and smaller when there is no need to make them crash-proof. Established carmakers may have time to adjust as we move from an ownership model to an on-demand streaming model, much as consumers have already done with music and movies.

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But at some future point, human error will be eliminated from motoring. We will look back on the first 125 years of the automobile as a brutal and primitive time, and wonder how we endured the carnage inflicted by human operators.

Auto insurers need to prepare to transition to that future. Accidents will be rare, and it’s probable that autos will be owned less by individuals and more by commercial firms operating fleets of autonomous cars on demand.

Not only will exposures be dramatically different, but all the data and skills we now use to underwrite auto will be obsolete. No crystal ball has a perfect vision of this future, but every auto insurer should be studying and planning for it.

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Risk Management

The Profession

After 20 years in the business, Navy Pier’s Director of Risk Management values her relationships in the industry more than ever.
By: | June 1, 2017 • 4 min read

R&I: What was your first job?

Working at Dominick’s Finer Foods bagging groceries. Shortly after I was hired, I was promoted to [cashier] and then to a management position. It taught me great responsibility and it helped me develop the leadership skills I still carry today.

R&I: How did you come to work in risk management?

While working for Hyatt Regency McCormick Place Hotel, one of my responsibilities was to oversee the administration of claims. This led to a business relationship with the director of risk management of the organization who actually owned the property. Ultimately, a position became available in her department and the rest is history.

R&I: What is the risk management community doing right?

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The risk management community is doing a phenomenal job in professional development and creating great opportunities for risk managers to network. The development of relationships in this industry is vitally important and by providing opportunities for risk managers to come together and speak about their experiences and challenges is what enables many of us to be able to do our jobs even more effectively.

R&I: What could the risk management community be doing a better job of?

Attracting, educating and retaining young talent. There is this preconceived notion that the insurance industry and risk management are boring and there could be nothing further from the truth.

R&I: What’s been the biggest change in the risk management and insurance industry since you’ve been in it?

In my 20 years in the industry, the biggest change in risk management and the insurance industry are the various types of risk we look to insure against. Many risks that exist today were not even on our radar 20 years ago.

Gina Kirchner, director of risk management, Navy Pier Inc.

R&I: What insurance carrier do you have the highest opinion of?

FM Global. They have been our property carrier for a great number of years and in my opinion are the best in the business.

R&I: Are you optimistic about the US economy or pessimistic and why?

I am optimistic that policies will be put in place with the new administration that will be good for the economy and business.

R&I: What emerging commercial risk most concerns you?

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The commercial risks that are of most concern to me are cyber risks, business interruption, and any form of a health epidemic on a global scale. We are dealing with new exposures and new risks that we are truly not ready for.

R&I: Who is your mentor and why?

My mother has played a significant role in shaping my ideals and values. She truly instilled a very strong work ethic in me. However, there are many men and women in business who have mentored me and have had a significant impact on me and my career as well.

R&I: What have you accomplished that you are proudest of?

I am most proud of making the decision a couple of years ago to return to school and obtain my [MBA]. It took a lot of prayer, dedication and determination to accomplish this while still working a full time job, being involved in my church, studying abroad and maintaining a household.

R&I: What is your favorite book or movie?

“Heaven Is For Real” by Todd Burpo and Lynn Vincent. I loved the book and the movie.

R&I: What’s the best restaurant you’ve ever eaten at?

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A French restaurant in Paris, France named Les Noces de Jeannette Restaurant à Paris. It was the most amazing food and brings back such great memories.

R&I: What is the most unusual/interesting place you have ever visited?

Israel. My husband and I just returned a few days ago and spent time in Jerusalem, Nazareth, Jericho and Jordan. It was an absolutely amazing experience. We did everything from riding camels to taking boat rides on the Sea of Galilee to attending concerts sitting on the Temple steps. The trip was absolutely life changing.

R&I: What is the riskiest activity you ever engaged in?

Many, many years ago … I went parasailing in the Caribbean. I had a great experience and didn’t think about the risk at the time because I was young, single and free. Looking back, I don’t know that I would make the same decision today.

R&I: What about this work do you find the most fulfilling or rewarding?

I would have to say the relationships and partnerships I have developed with insurance carriers, brokers and other professionals in the industry. To have wonderful working relationships with such a vast array of talented individuals who are so knowledgeable and to have some of those relationships develop into true friendships is very rewarding.

R&I: What do your friends and family think you do?

My friends and family have a general idea that my position involves claims and insurance. However, I don’t think they fully understand the magnitude of my responsibilities and the direct impact it has on my organization, which experiences more than 9 million visitors a year.




Katie Siegel is an associate editor at Risk & Insurance®. She can be reached at [email protected]