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Risk Insider: Barry Vogt

Making Predictive Analytics Actionable

By: | December 6, 2016 • 2 min read
Barry J. Vogt, senior vice president and chief claims officer of EMPLOYERS, is responsible for claims strategy, medical management/managed care strategy, catastrophic claim management, fraud investigations, claim controls, regulatory compliance and subrogation.

Imagine how powerful a tool would be that could see into the future. While such a tool may not yet exist, insurance companies have been using their unprecedented access to data to build predictive models for a number of years now. The use of big data can help identify claims that are likely to develop in an adverse way. This is quickly becoming a best practice within our industry.

With access to such wonderful and valuable information, there are still potential issues. The issues lie in how organizations operationalize – or more specifically, fail to operationalize – predictive analytics.

A lot has been written about the importance of data integrity, data mining and the identification of the most predictive attributes to factor into these algorithms. However, what tends to get overlooked is how organizations will use the output of these models within the claims organization to make better and faster decisions. The most common reason these kinds of initiatives fail is not necessarily bad data, but bad implementation.

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If a claims department doesn’t use the output from their predictive modeling to change how they are managing their claims, it won’t drive a significant improvement in their outcomes and is likely to fail. It’s not enough to have a successful model that will provide for the early identification of claims likely to develop into large losses. Claims leaders need to think through how they are going to use that information to change the trajectory of potentially severe claims. That is the key to success.

When implementing a claims predictive model focused on early identification of large losses, a well thought out plan as to how this will be operationalized should include at least the following elements:

  • New claim intake
  • Triage
  • Staffing model
  • Claim assignment
  • Return to work
  • Reserving
  • Auto adjudication
  • Settlement strategy
  • Litigation management
  • Key metrics/outcomes reporting
  • Fraud identification
  • Training

A good approach is to look at each of these key areas and ask the question: “How would we design this if we were starting from scratch with the advantage of predictive modeling, versus trying to simply tweak what is already in place?”

If a claims department doesn’t use the output from their predictive modeling to change how they are managing their claims, it won’t drive a significant improvement in their outcomes and is likely to fail.

Let’s take new claim intake for example. This is an area where insurers can use their analytics efforts to identify certain new data elements that could be collected early in the claim process, yet are shown to be highly predictive of claim development.  By collecting the right data at intake, potential large claims can be identified sooner which will in turn enable more impactful triage and facilitate claim assignment to the right resources earlier in the claim life cycle. By getting the right claim and medical resources involved sooner, we can see improved recovery and return-to-work times along with reduced average severity.

Investing the time and resources necessary to operationalize the model up front will result in a much more successful implementation that will drive improved outcomes for your company.

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Risk Management

The Profession

The risk manager for Boyd Gaming Corp. says curiosity keeps him engaged, and continual education will be the key to managing emerging risks.
By: | May 1, 2018 • 4 min read

R&I: What was your first job?

I was trained as an accountant, worked in public accounting and became a CPA. Being comfortable with numbers is helpful in my current role, and obviously, the language of business is financial statements, so it helps.

R&I: How did you come to work in risk management?

Working in finance in the corporate environment included the review of budgets and the analysis of business expenses. I quickly found the area of benefits and insurance — and how “accepting risk” impacted those expenses — to be fascinating. I asked a lot of questions. Be careful what you ask for — I soon found myself responsible for those insurance areas and haven’t looked back!

R&I: What is the risk management community doing right?

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I have found the risk management community to be a close-knit group, whether that’s industry professionals, risk managers with other companies or support organizations like RIMS and other regional groups. The expertise of the carriers and specialty vendors to develop new products and programs, along with the appropriate education, will continue to be of key importance to companies going forward.

R&I: What’s been the biggest change in the risk management and insurance industry since you’ve been in it?

As I’m sure many in the insurance field would agree, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 changed our world and our industry. It was a particularly intense time and certainly a baptism by fire for people like me who were relatively new to the industry. This event clearly accelerated the switch to the acceptance of more risk, which impacted mitigation strategies and programs.

Bob Berglund, vice president, benefits and insurance, Boyd Gaming Corp.

R&I: What emerging commercial risk most concerns you?

The fast-paced threat that cyber security represents today. Our company, like so many companies, is reliant upon computers, software and IT expertise in our everyday existence. This new risk has forged an even stronger relationship between risk management and our IT department as we work together to address this growing threat.

Additionally, the shooting event in Las Vegas in 2017 will have an enduring impact on firms that host large gatherings and arena-style events all over the world, and our company is no exception.

R&I: What insurance carrier do you have the highest opinion of?

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With the various types of insurance programs we employ, I have been fortunate to work with most of the large national and international carriers — all of whom employ talented people with a vast array of resources.

R&I:  How much business do you do direct versus going through a broker?

We use brokers for many of our professional coverages, such as property, casualty, D&O and cyber. We are self-insured under our health plans, with close to 25,000 members. We tend to manage those programs internally and utilize direct relationships with carriers and specialty vendors to tailor a plan that works best for team members.

R&I: Who is your mentor and why?

I have been fortunate to have worked alongside some smart and insightful people during my career. A key piece of advice, said in many different ways, has served me well. Simply stated: “Seek to understand before being understood.”

What this has meant to me is try everything you can to learn about something, new or old. After you have gained this knowledge, you can begin to access and maybe suggest changes or adjustments. Being curious has always been a personal enjoyment for me in business, and I have found people are more than willing to lend a hand, offer information and advice — you just need to ask. Building those alliances and foundations of knowledge on a subject matter makes tackling the future more exciting and fruitful.

R&I: What have you accomplished that you are proudest of?

Our benefit health plan is much more than handing out an insurance card at the beginning of the year. We encourage our team members and their families to learn about their personal health, get engaged in a variety of health and wellness programs and try to live life in the healthiest possible way. The result of that is literally hundreds of testimonials from our members every year on how they have lost weight, changed their lifestyle and gotten off medications. It is extremely rewarding and is a testament to [our] close-knit corporate culture.

R&I: What’s the best restaurant you’ve ever eaten at?

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Some will remember the volcano eruption in Iceland in spring of 2010. I was just finishing a week of meetings in London with Lloyd’s syndicates related to our property insurance placement when the airspace in England and most of northern Europe was shut down — no airplanes in or out! Flights were ultimately canceled for the following five days. Therefore, with a few other stranded visitors like myself, we experimented and tried out new restaurants every day until we could leave. It was a very interesting time!

R&I: What is the riskiest activity you ever engaged in?

I am originally from Canada, and I played ice hockey from the time I was four years old up until quite recently. Too many surgeries sadly forced my recent retirement.

R&I: What do your friends and family think you do?

That’s a funny one … I am a CPA working in the casino industry, doing insurance and risk management, so neighbors and acquaintances think I either do tax returns or they think I’m a blackjack dealer at the casino!




Katie Dwyer is an associate editor at Risk & Insurance®. She can be reached at [email protected]