Cyber Risk

Intelligent Cyber Defense

Machine learning programs are taking cyber security to the next level, though they won't keep hackers at bay for long.
By: | April 9, 2018 • 5 min read

Hailed by some as a Holy Grail for cyber security protection, machine learning programs are helping businesses identify and counter cyberattacks more effectively than ever before.

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From programs scanning the dark web for clues of cyberattacks to software analyzing companies’ data network flows and user behavior, risk managers, CTOs and CIOs have a growing choice of tools at their disposal.

As more devices come online and more data is produced, the potential vulnerabilities hackers can exploit grow exponentially. So too grows the need for tools that help firms spot threats and strengthen their cyber networks.

“It is increasingly important to develop tools to sift through the noise, identify signals and check for anomalies to identify attack vectors that are susceptible and ‘being exploited,” said Eric Cernak, vice president, Hartford Steam Boiler. “Machine learning can really help this process.”

Leveraging powerful algorithms, programs that harness machine learning are getting better at spotting the difference between genuine threats and innocent anomalies. They can detect threats faster than before.

Eric Cernak, vice president, Hartford Steam Boiler

Ryan Griffin, senior vice president, JLT Specialty USA, pointed out that the average time to detect an event was 180 days. Now it can be done in three.

According to ethical hacker and cyber security expert Mike Peters, vice president for IT, RIMS, more than 70 percent of attacks exploited known vulnerabilities in available patches last year. Machine learning programs can process vast quantities of data while iteratively learning, promising to help uncover many of these threats with minimal human involvement, he said.

“Machine learning systems have a big role to play in conquering threats currently handled in a manual fashion.”

“Machine learning systems have a big role to play in conquering threats currently handled in a manual fashion.” – Ryan Griffin, senior vice president, JLT Specialty USA

Credit rating firm FICO launched its own cyber vulnerability assessment tool, which scans the entire web on a weekly basis, gathering data company internet footprints. It learns about the conditional attributes and vulnerabilities exhibited by companies in the lead-up to a breach. Companies using this software scan and compare their own internet footprints to assess their cyber risk level.

According to Graeme Newman, cyber leader, Barbican Insurance, the program has so far found the most at-risk company to be 24 times more likely to suffer a cyber breach than the one with the best risk rating. It also confirmed the belief that certain sectors are more vulnerable than others; budget-strapped education entities typically rated poorly while banks scored highly due to heavy investment in security infrastructure.

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“Hackers have various tools available to them and are looking for certain vulnerabilities. The scanning software gives the company the same view of its internet footprint as any hacker would get,” explained Newman.

“A company that takes the findings very seriously may well look at every individual asset and negative signal with a view to fixing things and putting in new policies and procedures. That’s where the big work comes in.”

Insurance Partnerships

Insurers are also partnering with tech firms to offer similar risk assessment solutions. Allianz recently entered a heavyweight partnership with Aon, Apple and Cisco, harnessing the tech firm’s intelligent Cisco Ransomware Defense software.

Jenny Soubra, head of cyber and tech, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty

Jenny Soubra, head of cyber and tech, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, claimed Cisco offers the most holistic cyber security solution in the market, and its counterintelligence measures identified the WannaCry virus a month ahead of the attack, allowing it to warn and protect its customers.

“Different levels of coverage are unlocked by different levels of software and hardware deployment,” Soubra explained, revealing that the insurer is offering users “broad terms and conditions not currently available in the marketplace,” with deductibles in some cases reduced to zero.

Over time, this kind of arrangement is likely to become more prevalent, and machine learning tools will have a big impact on cyber insurance terms and pricing — not only by reducing the risk of insureds suffering breaches but also generating invaluable data to help refine underwriting.

One key challenge: risk aggregation. These tools could help identify vulnerabilities within supply chains, allowing users to suggest security improvements to suppliers and clients.

Costs and Considerations

Uptake is limited. Asked if machine learning is being translated into meaningful risk mitigation, Griffin said, “We haven’t seen that yet on the client side. As an industry, we’re kidding ourselves that we’re going to change the behavior of complex insureds who have invested millions of dollars into an infrastructure and a security team.”

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Costs, which vary significantly, may be prohibitive to smaller organizations.

“These programs can be expensive,” said Peters, noting annual prices on a per-user or per-instance basis can range from $1,000 to $20,000 and upwards. “It’s not for the faint of heart.” And while the range of machine learning tools continues to grow and improve, they do not offer a silver-bullet solution: “These platforms are only as good as the person administering them,” Peters said.

“It takes a lot of time and effort to fine-tune them to fit your business needs and day-to-day processes. Increasing network traffic may be statistically interesting, but it rarely represents an attack, and systems that look for generic anomalies can often misclassify a threat. You have to know how to apply machine learning in order for it to reveal true insight,” he added.

Newman agrees that false positive or negative signals are possible, such as spotting vulnerabilities in assets that may be disconnected from key services or are of little value or importance. Barbican’s approach, he said, is to use the signals as the starting point for risk mitigation conversations.

Ryan Griffin, senior vice president, JLT Specialty USA

Machine learning is still young, and these tools will only become more accurate and effective. However, warned Griffin, “as technology evolves, so does the threat.”

Sophisticated cyber criminals will soon harness the power of machine learning to make their attacks more effective. This could make smaller firms without intelligent security systems particularly vulnerable — not only for the assets they possess but also as routes into larger organizations.

Cernak hopes machine learning programs will become easier to deploy, improving smaller companies’ access to these powerful tools. However, even the adoption of high-end software is pointless if the human principles of cyber security are not adhered to. Adequately training staff remains vital as human error is almost always present in the event of a breach.

“You have to treat machine learning like any other tool in your toolbox. You can’t become overly dependent on any one solution,” said Cernak. “It’s important to build a culture of risk awareness and prevention. Cyber security starts and ends with people, and the tools you deploy need to be complementary to that strategy.” &

Antony Ireland is a London-based financial journalist. He can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Risk Management

The Profession

As a professor of business, Jack Hampton knows firsthand the positive impact education has on risk managers as they tackle growing risks.
By: | April 9, 2018 • 4 min read

R&I: Who is your mentor and why?

Ellen Thrower, president (retired), The College of Insurance, introduced me to the importance of insurance as a component of risk management. Further, she encouraged me to explore strategic and operational risk as foundation topics shaping the role of the modern risk manager.

Chris Mandel, former president of RIMS and Risk Manager of the Year, introduced me to the emerging area of enterprise risk management. He helped me recognize the need to align hazard, strategic, operational and financial risk into a single framework. He gave me the perspective of ERM in a high-tech environment, using USAA as a model program that later won an excellence award for innovation.

Bob Morrell, founder and former CEO of Riskonnect, showed me how technology could be applied to solving serious risk management and governance problems. He created a platform that made some of my ideas practical and extended them into a highly-successful enterprise that served risk and governance management needs of major corporations.

R&I: How did you come to work in this industry?

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From a background in corporate finance and commercial banking, I accepted the position of provost of The College of Insurance. Recognizing my limited prior knowledge in the field, I became a student of insurance and risk management leading to authorship of books on hazard and financial risk. This led to industry consulting, as well as to the development of graduate-level courses and concentrations in MBA programs.

R&I: What was your first job?

The provost position was the first job I had in the industry, after serving as dean of the Seton Hall University School of Business and founding The Princeton Consulting Group. Earlier positions were in business development with Marine Transport Lines, consulting in commercial banking and college professorships.

R&I: What have you accomplished that you are proudest of?

Creating a risk management concentration in the MBA program at Saint Peter’s, co-founding the Russian Risk Management Society (RUSRISK), and writing “Fundamentals of Enterprise Risk Management” and the “AMA Handbook of Financial Risk Management.”

A few years ago, I expanded into risk management in higher education. From 2017 into 2018, Rowman and Littlefield published my four books that address risks facing colleges and universities, professors, students and parents.

Jack Hampton, Professor of Business, St. Peter’s University

R&I: What is your favorite book or movie?

The Godfather. I see it as a story of managing risk, even as the behavior of its leading characters create risk for others.

R&I: What is your favorite drink?

Jameson’s Irish whiskey. Mixed with a little ice, it is a serious rival for Johnny Walker Gold scotch and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee whiskey.

R&I: What is the most unusual/interesting place you have ever visited?

Mount Etna, Taormina, and Agrigento, Sicily. I actually supervised an MBA program in Siracusa and learned about risk from a new perspective.

R&I: What is the riskiest activity you ever engaged in?

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Army Airborne training and jumping out of an airplane. Fortunately, I never had to do it in combat even though I served in Vietnam.

R&I: If the world has a modern hero, who is it and why?

George C. Marshall, one of the most decorated military leaders in American history, architect of the economic recovery program for Europe after World War II, and recipient of the 1953 Nobel Peace Prize. For Marshall, it was not just about winning the war. It was also about winning the peace.

R&I: What about this work do you find the most fulfilling or rewarding?

Sharing lessons with colleagues and students by writing, publishing and teaching. A professor with a knowledge of risk management does not only share lessons. The professor is also a student when MBA candidates talk about the risks they manage every day.

R&I: What is the risk management community doing right?

Sensitizing for-profit, nonprofit and governmental agencies to the exposures and complexities facing their organizations. Sometimes we focus too much on strategies that sound good but do not withstand closer examination. Risk managers help organizations make better decisions.

R&I: What could the risk management community be doing a better job of?

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Developing executive training programs to help risk managers assume C-suite positions in organizations. Insurance may be a good place to start but so is an MBA degree. The Risk and Insurance Management Society recognizes the importance of a wide range of risk knowledge. Colleges and universities need to catch up with RIMS.

R&I: What emerging commercial risk most concerns you?

Cyber risk and its impact on hazard, operational and financial strategies. A terrorist can take down a building. A cyber-criminal can take down much more.

R&I: What does your family think you do?

My family members think I’m a professor. They do not seem to be too interested in my views on risk management.




Katie Dwyer is an associate editor at Risk & Insurance®. She can be reached at [email protected]