Event Cancellation Risk

Doubts Buzz Around Rio Olympics

The threat of Zika continues to prompt calls for the cancellation of the 2016 Olympic Games.
By: | July 5, 2016 • 6 min read

As the threat of the Zika virus remains an urgent one in Brazil, calls have been made for the cancellation or relocation of the 2016 Olympic Games – an extreme decision that would cause enormous losses to the global insurance market.

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Some of the world’s largest insurers and reinsurers, including Swiss Re and Munich Re, have exposures to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars each for cancellation insurance policies that would likely be triggered if the games were not to take place.

Such policies cover financial losses caused by the cancellation of events and are purchased by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), which organizes the games, and by companies and organizations with significant interests in the games. They include sponsors, TV networks, tourism operators, airlines, brands with Olympic-focused marketing campaigns and others.

Underwriters must have sighed with relief when the World Health Organization said “there is no public health justification for postponing or cancelling the games.”

The risk of cancellation gained steam in recent weeks after a group of more than 150 high-profile scientists released an open letter urging the games to be suspended in order to prevent Zika from spreading around the world.

“An Unnecessary Risk”

“The Brazilian strain of Zika virus harms health in ways that science has not observed before,” the scientists said in the letter. “An unnecessary risk is posed when 500,000 foreign tourists from all countries attend the Games, potentially acquire that strain, and return home to places where it can become endemic.”

They pointed out in the document that the 2003 Women’s World Cup was moved from China to the U.S. due to the risk of SARS, which should be a precedent for the cancellation of Rio 2016.

Royal Oakes, insurance partner, Hinshaw & Culbertson

Royal Oakes, insurance partner, Hinshaw & Culbertson

Underwriters around the world must have sighed with relief when the World Health Organization released an answer to the scientists, stating that “there is no public health justification for postponing or cancelling the games.”

“It is very likely that current policies have no exclusions for public health events such as epidemics,” said Royal Oakes, an insurance partner at Hinshaw & Culbertson in Los Angeles.

The market may have dodged a bullet, but insurers and reinsurers may still face a bill due to the pesky Aedes mosquitoes, which transmit not only Zika, but also other viruses such as chikungunya, dengue and yellow fever; all common diseases in Brazil.

“Cancellation policies are such long shots that usually nobody gives them any attention,” Oakes said. “But now everybody is talking about cancelling Rio 2016 due to Zika.”

According to sources, at least one of Europe’s largest reinsurers signed a large cancellation contract with NBC, which owns TV rights to the Olympics in the U.S. It has been pressured to consider the possibility of triggering the coverage even if the games go ahead, but key American athletes decide not to compete, affecting ratings and, consequently, publicity revenues.

Although this kind of clause may not be usual in policies, Oakes said, it may have been arranged between the parties, as wordings are non-standard and are subject to agreements between buyers and underwriters. That said, he would be surprised if a policy was triggered by the fact that athletes do not show up.

Top golfers Rory McIlroy of Ireland and Jason Day of Australia, and Tejay van Garderen, one of America’s top cyclists, have already announced they are not going to Rio in August because of Zika.

Others include NBA star Pau Gasol, the most famous member of Spain’s Olympic team, U.S. soccer player Hope Solo and tennis star Serena Williams. All have expressed doubts about participating in the games due to the risk of contamination. Some NBC staffers are also passing on the opportunity.

Companies that send staff to Brazil during the games have been advised to provide information to their employees on Zika prevention.

The Brazilian government said that measures have been taken to stop the propagation of Zika during the Olympics. Furthermore, it argued that the games will take place during the Brazilian winter, when the activities of the mosquitoes diminish considerably.

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“There is no risk for the spreading of Zika to gain pace during the Olympics,” Health minister Ricardo Barros said in early June.

But the failure of the Brazilian authorities to stop the virus so far raises doubts about the minister’s claim.

Since the autochthonous version of the outbreak was first spotted in April last year, almost 92,000 cases of Zika contamination were reported in the country, according to the government.

Since October, there have been nearly 1,500 known cases of babies born with microcephaly, which has been linked to the virus. A total of 223 have already been associated to Zika via lab tests. The actual number could be much higher, as the tests to identify both Zika and microcephaly cases are not available to all Brazilians.

Companies that send staff to Brazil during the games have been advised to provide information to their employees on Zika prevention.

They range from simple measures such as applying repellent and wearing long-sleeved clothes that reduce the skin area that can be targeted by mosquitoes, to avoiding poorer regions of Rio de Janeiro, where sanitation infrastructure is precarious, and practicing safe sex, as the virus can also be transmitted during sexual intercourse.

Security Risks

But Zika is not the only risk that worries participants in the event.

Debora Rocha, regional security manager, International SOS

Debora Rocha, regional security manager, International SOS

Security is a big issue in Brazil, and 90,000 security agents will be deployed by the authorities to guarantee safety. Although terrorism is not a common threat in the country, the security forces said that they have been collecting information about potential attacks during the games and are working with other countries to neutralize the risk.

“Brazil has hosted the Pan American games, the Confederations Cup and more recently the FIFA World Cup, so there is considerable experience in dealing with large events and collaborating with security forces from other countries,” said Debora Rocha, the regional security manager at International SOS in Brazil.

But crime is a major concern in Rio de Janeiro, and it is on the rise as a consequence of Brazil’s economic crisis.

Rocha said visitors should avoid walking around beautiful Rio de Janeiro while carrying valuable items — such as iPads, smartphones or expensive watches — and they should not wander around impoverished parts of the city.

“We do not recommend that people go to ‘favela’ tours that have been fashionable in recent years,” she said, referring to Rio’s famous, and very dangerous, shantytowns.

Another important precaution is to only take taxis that are called by hotels, restaurants or telephone services. Picking a taxi on the road is a particularly bad idea as some cab drivers can be criminals in disguise.

In general, information on risk management systems and structures have not been made public, which has raised questions about the robustness of ERM at the Rio games.

“Crime is among the top two or three concerns, along with Zika and the general preparedness of infrastructure and venues in Rio,” said Abbott Matthews, an analyst at IJET International.

In the latter case, the Olympics organization has been dogged by work delays, bribery suspicions and faulty execution, as illustrated by the crumbling in April of a scenic, seaside waterway that was built as a legacy of the games to the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Preparedness has in fact been a concern throughout all of the construction of Rio’s Olympic structures, and a lack of focus on risk management may have played a role.

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The local organizers hired an experienced Brazilian risk manager to focus on enterprise risk management in 2013, but he left the next year after disagreements with his bosses. Since then, the position has not been filled.

Public speeches on risk management at the games have been delivered by a military police colonel who is in charge of security and who focuses mostly on policing issues.

In general, information on risk management systems and structures have not been made public, which has raised questions about the robustness of ERM at the Rio games.

“In large scale events, especially when there is taxpayers’ money involved, there is a deep obligation to have the most transparent processes in place,” said Joanna Makomaski, president of Baldwin Global Solutions, who was the vice president of ERM with the Toronto 2015 Organizing Committee of the Pan American Games.

Rodrigo Amaral is a freelance writer specializing in Latin American and European risk management and insurance markets. He can be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Black Swan: EMP

Chaos From Above

An electromagnetic pulse event triggered by the detonation of a low-yield nuclear device in Earth’s atmosphere triggers economic and societal chaos.
By: | July 27, 2017 • 9 min read

Scenario

The vessel that seeks to undo America arrives in the teeth of a storm.

The 4,000-ton Indonesian freighter Pandawas Viper sails towards California in December 2017. It is shepherded toward North America by a fierce Pacific winter storm, a so-called “Pineapple Express,” boasting 15-foot waves and winds topping 70 mph.

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Normally, Pandawas Viper carries cargo containers. This time she harbors a much more potent payload.

Unbeknownst to U.S. defense and intelligence officials, the Viper carries a single nuclear weapon, loaded onto a naval surface-to-air missile, or SAM, concealed below deck.

The warhead has an involved history. It was smuggled out of Kyrgyzstan in 1997, eventually finding its way into the hands of Islamic militants in Indonesia that are loosely affiliated with ISIS.

Even for these ambitious and murderous militants, outfitting a freighter with a nuclear device in secrecy and equipping it to sail to North America in the hopes of firing its deadly payload is quite an undertaking.

Close to $2 million in bribes and other considerations are paid out to ensure that the Pandawas Viper sets sail for America unmolested, her cargo a secret held by less than two dozen extremist Islamic soldiers.

The storm is a perfect cover.

Officials along the West Coast busy themselves tracking the storm, doing what they think is the right thing by warning residents about flooding and landslides, and securing ports against storm-related damage.

No one gives a second thought to the freighter flying Indonesian colors making its way toward the Port of Long Beach, as it apparently should be.

It’s only at two in the morning on Sunday, December 22, that an alert Port of San Diego administrator charged with monitoring ocean-going cargo traffic sees something that causes him to do a double take.

GPS tracking information indicates to him that the Pandawas Viper is not heading to Long Beach, as indicated on its digital shipping logs, but is veering toward Baja, Calif.

Were it to keep its present course, it would arrive at Tijuana, Mexico.

The port administrator dutifully notifies the U.S. Coast Guard.

“Indonesian freighter Pandawas Viper off course, possibly storm-related navigational difficulties,” he emails on a secure digital communication channel operated by the port and the Coast Guard.

“Monitor and alert as necessary,” his message, including the ship’s current coordinates, concludes.

In turn, a communications officer in the Coast Guard’s Alameda, Calif. offices dutifully alerts members of the Coast Guard’s Pacific basin security team. She’s done her job but she’s about an hour late.

At 3:15 am Pacific time on December 22, the deck on the Pandawas Viper opens and the naval surface-to-air missile, operated remotely by a militant operative in Jakarta, is let loose.

It’s headed not for Los Angeles or San Diego, but rather Earth’s atmosphere, where it detonates about 50 miles above the surface.

There it interacts with the planet’s atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetic field to produce an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, which radiates down to Earth, creating additional electric or ground-induced currents.

The operative’s aim is perfect. With a charge of hundreds and in some cases thousands of volts, the GICs cause severe physical damage to all unprotected electronics and transformers. Microchips operate in the range of 1.5 to 5 volts and thus are obliterated by the billions.

As a result, the current created by the blast knocks out 70 percent of the nation’s grid. What began as an overhead flash of light plunges much of the nation into darkness.

The first indication for most people that there is a problem is that their trusty cellphones can do no more than perform calculations, tell them the time or play their favorite tunes.

As minutes turn to hours, however, people realize that they’ve got much bigger concerns on their hands. Critical infrastructure for transportation and communications ceases. Telecommunication breakdowns mean that fire and police services are unreachable.

For the alone, the elderly and the otherwise vulnerable, panic sets in quickly.

Hospital administrators feverishly calculate how long their emergency power supplies can last.

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Supermarkets and other retailers anticipating one of their biggest shopping days of the year on that Monday, December 23, instead wake up to cold homes and chilling prospects.

Grocery stores with their electricity cut off are unable to open and product losses begin to mount. Banks don’t open. Cash machines are inoperable.

In the colder parts of the United States, the race to stay warm is on.  Within a day’s time in some poorer neighborhoods, furniture is broken up and ignited for kindling.

As a result, fires break out, fires that in many cases will not draw a response from firefighting crews due to the communication breakdown.

As days of interruption turn into weeks and months, starvation, rioting and disease take many.

Say good-bye to most of the commercial property/casualty insurance companies that you know. The resulting chaos adds up to more than $1 trillion in economic losses. Property, liability, credit, marine, space and aviation insurers fail in droves.

Assume widespread catastrophic transformer damage, long-term blackouts, lengthy restoration times and chronic shortages. It will take four to 10 years for a full recovery.

The crew which launched the naval surface-to-air missile that resulted in all of this chaos makes a clean getaway. All seven that were aboard the Pandawas Viper make their way to Ensenada, Mexico, about 85 miles south of San Diego via high-speed hovercraft.

Those that bankrolled this deadly trip were Muslim extremists. But this boat crew knows no religion other than gold.

Well-paid by their suppliers, they enjoy several rounds of the finest tequila Ensenada can offer, and a few other diversions, before slipping away to Chile, never to be brought to justice.

Observations

This outcome does not spring from the realm of fiction.

In May, 1999, during the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, high-ranking Russian officials meeting with a U.S. delegation to discuss the Balkans conflict raised the notion of an EMP attack that would paralyze the United States.

That’s according to a report of a commission to assess the threat to the United States from an EMP attack, which was submitted to the U.S. Congress in 2004. But Russia is not alone in this threat or in this capability.

Wes Dupont, vice president and general counsel, Allied World Assurance Company

North Korea also has the capability and the desire, according to experts, and there is speculation that recent rocket launches by that country are dress rehearsals to detonate a nuclear device in our atmosphere and carry out an EMP attack on the United States.

The first defense against such an attack is our missile defense. But some experts believe this country is ill-equipped to defend against this sort of scenario.

“In terms of risk mitigation, if an event like this happens, then that means the best risk mitigation we have has already failed, which would be our military defense systems, because the terrorists have already launched their weapon, and it’s already exploded,” said Wes Dupont, a vice president and general counsel with the Allied World Assurance Company.

The U.S power grid is relatively unprotected against EMP blasts, Dupont said.

And a nuclear blast is the worst that can occur. There isn’t much mitigation that’s been done because many methods are unproven, and it’s expensive, he added.

Lloyd’s and others have studied coronal mass ejections, solar superstorms that would produce a magnetic field that could enter our atmosphere and wipe out our grid.  Scientists believe that an EMP attack would carry a force far greater than any coronal mass ejection that has ever been measured.

An extended blackout, with some facilities taking years to return to full functionality, is a scenario that no society on earth is ready for.

“Traditional scenarios only assume blackouts for a few days and losses seem to be moderate …” wrote executives with Allianz in a 2011 paper outlining risk management options for power blackout risks.

“If an event like this happens, then that means the best risk mitigation we have has already failed … because the terrorists have already launched their weapon, and it’s already exploded.” — Wes Dupont, vice president and general counsel, Allied World Assurance Company

“But if we are considering longer-lasting blackouts, which are most likely from space weather or coordinated cyber or terrorist attacks, the impacts to our society and economy might be significant,” the Allianz executives wrote.

“Critical infrastructure such as communication and transport would be hampered,” the Allianz executives wrote.

“The heating and water supply would stop, and production processes and trading would cease. Emergency services like fire, police or ambulance could not be called due to the breakdown of the telecommunications systems. Hospitals would only be able to work as long as the emergency power supply is supplied with fuel. Financial trading, cash machines and supermarkets in turn would have to close down, which would ultimately cause a catastrophic scenario,” according to Allianz.

It would cost tens of billions to harden utility towers in this country so that they wouldn’t be rendered inoperable by ground-induced currents. That may seem like a lot of money, but it’s really not when we think about the trillion dollars or more in damages that could result from an EMP attack, not to mention the loss of life.

Allianz estimates that when a blackout is underway, financial trading institutions, for example, suffer losses of more than $6 million an hour; telecommunications companies lose about $30,000 per minute, according to the Allianz analysis.

Insurers, of course, would be buffeted should a rogue actor pull off this attack.

Lou Gritzo, vice president and manager of research, FM Global

“Depending on the industries and the locations that are affected, it could really change the marketplace, insurers and reinsurers as well,” said Lou Gritzo, a vice president and manager of research at FM Global.

Gritzo said key practices to defend against this type of event are analyzing supply chains to establish geographically diverse supplier options and having back-up systems for vital operations.

The EMP commission of 2004 argued that the U.S. needs to be vigilant and punish with extreme prejudice rogue entities that are endeavoring to obtain the kind of weapon that could be used in an attack like this.

It also argued that we need to protect our critical infrastructure, carry out research to better understand the effects of such an attack, and create a systematic recovery plan. Understanding the condition of critical infrastructure in the wake of an attack and being able to communicate it will be key, the commission argued.

The commission pointed to a blackout in the Midwest in 2003, in which key system operators did not have an alarm system and had little information on the changing condition of their assets as the blackout unfolded.

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The commission’s point is that we have the resources to defend against this scenario. But we must focus on the gravity of the threat and employ those resources.

Our interconnected society and the steady increase in technology investment only magnify this risk on a weekly basis.

“Our vulnerability is increasing daily as our use of and dependence on electronics continues to grow,” the EMP commission members wrote back in 2004.

But “correction is feasible and well within the nation’s means and resources to accomplish,” the commission study authors wrote. &

Dan Reynolds is editor-in-chief of Risk & Insurance. He can be reached at [email protected]