2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

We focus on the risk mitigation and coverage challenges of climate change, economic nationalism, cyber business interruption and artificial intelligence.
By: | April 7, 2017 • 4 min read

Every year since 2011, Risk & Insurance® editors and writers have set about determining the Most Dangerous Emerging Risks for a package that runs in our April issue. As we’ve monitored which risks have the potential to cause the most damage, one thing is becoming apparent: Most Dangerous Emerging Risks seem to be emerging at a faster and faster rate.

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Just last year, we wrote about the risk that a populace that self-selects information sources, relying mostly on unsubstantiated sources on the internet, could come to erroneous conclusions, with dangerous consequences.

We called that story “Fragmented Voice of Authority.”

Fearful proof of that premise came to life in December when a gunman shot up a pizza parlor in Washington, D.C., after reading bogus information on the internet that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was running a child sex ring there.  Fortunately, no one was injured in that incident.

Now it looks like fake news stories emanating from Russia could have played an interfering role in our Presidential election.

Another focus of last year’s issue was our crumbling infrastructure. That topic received terrifying confirmation when heavy rainfalls pushed California’s aged Oroville Dam to the bursting point. Should the dam break, billions in real estate losses as well as potential loss of life would result.

That April 2016 story, titled “Crumbling Infrastructure: Day of Reckoning,” warned that we now face the consequences for too long foregoing spending on important infrastructure upgrades.

We’ve seen that Most Dangerous Emerging Risks can take years to develop and emerge. But in both of these cases, they emerged in a matter of months.

The process of determining the Most Dangerous Emerging Risks begins in January, when we start placing calls to insurance carriers, risk modelers and brokers.

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We ask executives with those companies to engage us in an off-the-record conversation about which risks concern them the most. A defining characteristic of a Most Dangerous Emerging Risk is that it has the potential to cause widespread losses, but might not be on the radar of many risk managers.

Once we pick the brains of industry executives, we compile a list of the risks that look like they could qualify as Most Dangerous Emerging Risks. The editors then meet to determine which of those risks we should focus on for the April issue. It’s at that stage that we go back to our original sources, and if we picked one of their stories, ask them for an on-the-record interview on the topic.

This year, after distilling our conversations with our sources, we came up with five emerging risks that could cause massive losses for commercial insureds and carriers.

The risk that sea rise could wreck coastal real estate values is one. Economic nationalism, both domestically and globally, are two and three.

The layered risk presented by the use of artificial intelligence in manufacturing and other processes is our fourth most dangerous emerging risk this year, and the threat that hackers could take down the internet and cause massive cyber business interruption is number five.

Experts say that trillions in property values could literally be underwater due to sea rise in the next mortgage cycle, or the next 30 years, according to a story by editor-in-chief Dan Reynolds.

Hopes are that public and private sector stakeholders can pull together to devote the thought and the resources necessary to create the infrastructure necessary to protect our ports, our office buildings and our homes from sea rise.

China is doing it and we should too.

The risk that many find most concerning is the fear that a hack could take down the internet.  Business interruption for that kind of event would be so widespread that insurers just can’t cover it.

Check out managing editor Anne Freedman’s story on that risk.

Protectionism is on the rise in this country. Politicians that want to firm up our borders represent a threat to supply chains and the free flow of commerce.

The U.S. tech industry, in particular, fears a talent shortage should the new administration’s efforts to limit immigration become law. Associate editor Katie Siegel’s piece details that risk and others that stem from domestic protectionism.

The fear for multinational companies, according to a story by staff writer Juliann Walsh, is that global business uncertainty will increase unduly; prompted by events such as Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and Venezuela’s decision to close its borders with Brazil.

Associate editor Michelle Kerr’s piece looks at the tangle of liability questions created by artificial intelligence.

Our award-winning Most Dangerous Emerging Risks coverage is, of course, intended not to scare people but to advance the thought leadership and dialogue we need to mitigate risk and ensure a more resilient, sustainable economy.

On that point, we can all agree. &

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2017 Most Dangerous Emerging Risks

Artificial Intelligence Ties Liability in Knots

The same technologies that drive business forward are upending the nature of loss exposures and presenting new coverage challenges.

 

 

Cyber Business Interruption

Attacks on internet infrastructure begin, leaving unknown risks for insureds and insurers alike.

 

 

U.S. Economic Nationalism

Nationalistic policies aim to boost American wealth and prosperity, but they may do long-term economic damage.

 

 

Foreign Economic Nationalism

Economic nationalism is upsetting the risk management landscape by presenting challenges in once stable environments.

 

 

Coastal Mortgage Value Collapse

As climate change drives rising seas, so arises the risk that buyers will become leery of taking on mortgages along our coasts.  Trillions in mortgage values are at stake unless the public and the private sector move quickly.

The R&I Editorial Team may be reached at [email protected]

More from Risk & Insurance

More from Risk & Insurance

Risk Management

The Profession

Wawa’s Director of Risk Management knows that harnessing data and analytics will be key to surviving the rapid pace of change that heralds new risk exposures.
By: | July 27, 2017 • 5 min read

R&I: What was your first job?

My first job was at the age of 15 as a cashier at a bakery. My first professional job was at Amtrak in the finance department. I worked there while I was in college.

R&I: How did you come to work in risk management?

A position opened up in risk management at Wawa and I saw it as an opportunity to broaden my skills and have the ability to work across many departments at Wawa to better learn about the business.

R&I: What is the risk management community doing right?

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The advancements in analytics are a success for the industry and offer opportunities for the future. I also find value in the industry focus on emerging and specialty risks. There is more alignment with experts in different industries related to emerging and specialty risks to provide support and services to the insurance industry. As a result, the insurance industry can now look at risk mitigation more holistically and not just related to traditional risk transfer.

R&I: What could the risk management community be doing a better job of?

Developing the talent to grow with the industry in specialization and analytics, but to also carry on the personal connections and relationship building that is a large part of this industry.

Nancy Wilson, director, quality assurance, risk management and safety, Wawa Inc.

R&I: What was the best location and year for the RIMS conference and why?

I have had successes at all of the RIMS events I have attended. It is a great opportunity to spend time with our broker, carriers and other colleagues.

R&I: What’s been the biggest change in the risk management and insurance industry since you’ve been in it?

I think the biggest challenge facing most companies today is related to brand or reputational risk. With the ever-changing landscape of technology, globalization and social media, the risk exposure to an organization’s brand or reputation continues to grow.

R&I: What emerging commercial risk most concerns you?

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The changing consumer demands and new entrants into an industry are concerning. This is not necessarily something new but the frequency and speed to which it happens today does seem to be different. I think that is only going to continue. Companies need to be prepared to evolve with the times, and for me that means new risk exposures that we need to be prepared to mitigate.

R&I: Are you optimistic about the U.S. economy or pessimistic and why?

I try to be optimistic about most things. I think the economy ebbs and flows for many reasons and it is important to always keep an eye out for signs of change.

R&I: What have you accomplished that you are proudest of?

I am fortunate to have opportunities professionally that make me proud, but I have to answer this one personally. I have two children ages 12 and 9 and I am so proud of the people that they are today. They both are hardworking, fun and kind. Nothing gives me a better feeling than seeing them be successful. I look forward to more of that.

R&I: What is your favorite book or movie?

This is really hard as there are too many favorites. I do prefer books to movies, especially if there is a movie based on a book. I find the movie is never as good. I have multiple books going at once and usually bounce back and forth between fiction and non-fiction.

R&I: What’s the best restaurant you’ve ever eaten at?

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I have eaten at a lot of different restaurants in many major cities but I would have to pick Horn O’ Plenty in Bedford, PA. It is a farm to table restaurant in the middle of the state. The food is always fresh and tastes amazing and they make me feel like I am at home when I am there. My family and I eat there often during our trips out that way.

R&I: What is your favorite drink?

I do love a good cup of coffee (working at Wawa helps that). I also enjoy a good glass of wine (red preferably) on occasion.

R&I: What is the most unusual/interesting place you have ever visited?

Vacations aside, I do get an opportunity to travel for work and visit our food suppliers. The opportunities I have had to visit back to the farm level have been a very interesting learning experience. If it wasn’t for my role, I would have never been able to experience that.

R&I: What is the riskiest activity you ever engaged in?

My husband, kids and I recently did a boot-camp-type obstacle course up in the trees 24 feet in the air. Although I had a harness and helmet on, I really put my fear of heights to the test. At the end of the two hours, I did get the hang of it but am not sure I would do it again.

R&I: If the world has a modern hero, who is it and why?

The first people that come to mind are those who are serving our country and willing to sacrifice their own lives for our freedom.

R&I: What about this work do you find the most fulfilling or rewarding?

Every day is different and I have the opportunity to be involved in a lot of different work across the company.

R&I: What do your friends and family think you do?

My husband and children have a pretty good sense of what I do, but the rest of my family has no idea. They just know I work for Wawa and sometimes travel.




Katie Siegel is an associate editor at Risk & Insurance®. She can be reached at [email protected]